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LEISURE LETTER (10/31/2014) TRICK OR TREAT EDITION

Tickers: MPEL, MAR, WYN

EVENTS

  • Nov 3:
    • BEE Q3 earnings 11 am , pw 37266467
    • SHO Q3 earnings 12n , ID 75906336
  • Nov 4: RHP Q3 earnings 10 am
  • Nov 6:
    • MPEL Q3 earnings 8:30 am , pw MPEL
    • PNK Q3 earnings 10 am , code 27759617
    • BEL Q3 earnings 10 am , ID 12457691

COMPANY NEWS

MPEL(GGRAsia) The Macau government announced it detected an unauthorized smoking area inside City of Dreams casino resort.  MPEL earlier said its operations were compliant with Macau legal requirements.

The Health Bureau said in a statement issued on Wednesday night that the unauthorized smoking area was detected following complaints on the matter.

“On Wednesday (October 29), the Health Bureau and the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau conducted a joint investigation at City of Dreams casino and confirmed that the casino had transformed a non-smoking area into a smoking area without receiving authorization from the Health Bureau,” the statement said.

Takeaway: Just a matter of time until all of Macau gambling is non-smoking - clearly the Health Bureau policies supercede the DICJ.

 

AC:FP – unveiled a new multi-faceted digital strategy in which it plans to invest €225 million (US$284 million) over the next five years. Calling the “Leading Digital Hospitality” plan the company’s “global response to digital challenges,” Accor said it was designed with three targets in mind — customers, employees and partners — through the pillars of IT infrastructure and data management with an aim to rethink and incorporate digital technology throughout the customer journey, improve the services offered to investor partners and consolidate the Group's distribution market share.

Takeaway: Technology to consumer, the new capex spend.

 

IGH:LN – Holiday Inn announced it will roll out its Burger Theory restaurant concept in the Americas. Burger Theory will feature a bar-centric rustic design and offer gourmet specialty burgers and craft beer. Burger Theory’s menu will also include salads, flatbreads and dessert. According to Maurice Cooper, vice president of the Holiday Inn brand, Burger Theory is already operating at Atlanta’s Holiday Inn Airport South and will open in several additional Holiday Inn locations later this year. Cooper also explained that Holiday Inn wants to differentiate itself from competitors by offering attractive dinner F&B options to keep guests at the property in the evening.

Takeaway: Who doesn't enjoy a good burger while on the road? Still not enough to fully refresh this tarnished brand (tarnished only in the US).

 

MAR – announced plans to provide free basic Wi-Fi to all 47 million members of its Marriott Rewards loyalty program when they book directly through Marriott channels such as Marriott.com, Marriott’s mobile app, its toll-free number or directly through a hotel. Beginning January 15, this benefit will make free standard Wi-Fi available across more than 3,800 hotels in the company’s global portfolio. 

Takeaway: Matches the IHG rewards program.

 

WYN – announced the appointment of Mark Kukulski as president of its management division, Wyndham Hotel Group Management. In this role, effective November 11, Kukulski will be responsible for the execution of all hotel operations for the company’s 46 U.S. managed properties with more than 10,000 guest rooms, including financial management, sales and marketing, guest satisfaction, associate and owner relations and compliance with quality standards.


CCL – announced Gerry Cahill, president and CEO of Carnival Cruise Lines, is retiring, effective November 30, after 20 years of service. Cahill joined Carnival Corporation in 1994 as vice president – finance, and in January 1998 was promoted to senior vice president – finance and chief financial officer.

Takeaway: We wish Mr. Cahill well.  He will be missed as he was a long time friend of investors.

INDUSTRY NEWS

Limit on Macau Live Gaming Tables(GGRAsia) Macau’s Secretary for Economy and Finance, Francis Tam Pak Yuen said that any change to gaming policies would be for the next administration to decide. Macau Chief Executive Fernando Chui Sai On is set to start his second term in office on December 20. Mr Chui is still to name his team of governmental secretaries. It is yet not know if Mr Tam – who has overseen the gaming industry since 1999 – will stay on. The Macau government has imposed a cap that seeks to limit the growth of live dealer table numbers to 3% compound annual expansion until end-2022 from a base of 5,485 tables recorded by the authorities at the end of the fourth quarter in 2012.

Takeaway: Hopefully the new Secretary will also be a friend of the industry. 

 

E-Cigs Allowed in Macau Casinos (Macau Business Daily) Since October 6 the government has permitted the smoking of conventional cigarettes in casinos only in smoking rooms without gaming facilities or in VIP gaming rooms.

Business Daily quotes a spokesperson for the Health Bureau said,“According to the present law, the use of electronic cigarettes is not banned.”  However, Hing Cheong Hong Tobacco Co Ltd sales manager Sunny Iao also said “We cannot find any place in Macau where it’s possible to buy these cigarettes.”

Takeaway: Smoke 'em if you've got 'em!

 

Macau Package Tourism (Macau Business) The Statistics and Census Service says the number of package tourists from the mainland rose by 11% to 840,000. More package tourists came from Taiwan, but fewer came from South Korea and Hong Kong. Macau had 852,000 hotel guests last month, 1% fewer than a year earlier. The average hotel guest stayed 1.4 nights, 0.1 night more than a year earlier. The average occupancy rate of hotels and guesthouses fell by 2% to 85%.

Takeaway: Decent, not great growth as compared to historical growth.

 

China's Communist Party Hardline – the Standing Committee of the 12th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference National Committee said  China's top political advisory body concluded its plenary session in Beijing by expelling a senior Hong Kong lawmaker for remarks against HK's Leung Chun-ying -- James Tien Pei-chun was voted out of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference for his public remarks against HK Chief Executive and the HK government's governing in line with law. The decision which outlines a blueprint of governing the country according to law, has shown the Party's resolution to build a socialist country under the rule of law, said the political advisors at the session.

Takeaway: Follow party rule and stay in line or get kicked out.

 

Fitch Ratings on Singapore Gaming – The rating agency noted:  1) current government policy is unlikely to shift toward increased gaming policy liberalization,  2) recent corruption crackdowns, a slowdown in China's economic growth and credit tightening have negatively impacted Singapore's VIP GGR because Chinese VIPs represent about half of total gaming revenue ad both MBS and RWS; and,  3) "the tax rate could be revisited as the government considers granting additional licences when the duopoly period ends in 2017"

Takeaway: Could a third casino license be in the offering in Singapore?

 

Vietnam Tax Policy(Vientnamnet) Personal income tax on earnings derived from casino winnings is likely to be scrapped according to comments by the country’s National Assembly. But the loss to the country’s tax authorities – estimated at US$9.52 million annually – is likely to be offset by a 5% increase in what’s known locally as special consumption tax, which applies to gambling. That could rise from 30% to 35%.

 

U.S. Internet Gambling Research Study – The Center for Gambling Studies at the Rutgers University School of Social Work was awarded $1.2 million to conduct the first comprehensive investigation of internet betting behavior in the United States. Funded by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement in partnership with the Department of Health and Human Services' Division of Mental Health and Addiction Services, the three-year project project is in response to a mandate from Gov. Chris Christie to examine the impact of Internet gambling has on problematic gambling behaviors across the state.

Takeaway: So now that internet gaming has not produced the growth and associated tax revenue, the Governor wants to study the impact of internet gambling on the New Jersey residents?  Maybe the governor is trying to soften to political conservatives?

 

Global Luxury Travel – Abercrombie & Kent charted an Icelandair extended range Boeing 757 for use on A&K's global "private-jet" tour packages. The aircraft, which was refitted with fifty lie-flat seats, recently completed its first trans-global "Wonders of the World by Private Jet" tour with additional flights covering Africa, South America, and the Pacific scheduled.

Takeaway: Life in the top 1%.

MACRO

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.

Takeaway:  We're seeing bottoms up slowing in Europe cruise pricing in our monthly survey. Europe has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely. Following CCL's earnings release, we recently turned negative on those stocks based on the negative European thesis. 

 

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative on consumer spending and believes in muted inflation, a Quad4 set-up.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.


Retail Callouts (10/31): NKE, Lebron, WMT, COLM, KSS, AMZN

Takeaway: NKE builds awesome campaign around LBJ’s return to Cleveland, LBJ tarnishes it. WMT moves towards online price matching, free shipping next.

COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS

 

WMT - Wal-Mart Weighs Matching Online Prices

(http://online.wsj.com/articles/wal-mart-weighs-matching-online-prices-during-holidays-1414672782)

 

  • "Wal-Mart executives are discussing whether to go ahead with the price-matching program, which would expand its one for local brick-and-mortar competitors, according to spokeswoman Deisha Barnett. Under consideration is how much Wal-Mart might lose if the program were to go nationwide, people familiar with the matter said."
  • "Ms. Barnett said the company’s focus is on taking care of customers and said store managers have had discretion to match certain online prices for customers for some time."

 

Takeaway: Translation…WMT is going to ultimately offer price matching on all online purchases, ie. AMZN. The next step will be price matching and free shipping. We think that the concept of consumers paying for shipping will be a distant memory in 24 months. Of course, companies don't agree with us. But that's because they'll ultimately offer free shipping because they have to, not because they want to. This trend should be powerful enough to trigger the next round of bankruptcies. 

 

NKE - LEBRON'S ARROGANT ATTITUDE AND POOR PERFORMANCE GOES AGAINST A KILLER NIKE MEDIA OFFENSIVE

(http://news.nike.com/news/nike-basketball-debuts-the-lebron-james-together-film)

 

Retail Callouts (10/31): NKE, Lebron, WMT, COLM, KSS, AMZN - 10 31 chart1

Retail Callouts (10/31): NKE, Lebron, WMT, COLM, KSS, AMZN - 10 31 chart2

 

Takeaway: This 'Together' film by Nike is one of the best we've seen from the company in a very long time. It's seemingly complimentary to LBJ's first home game in his return to Cleveland. Unfortunately, he didn't play well, and the Knicks walked away with the win. That's not the end of the world. Nike never bases its advertising on an athlete/team winning or losing a specific event. Nike is excellent at playing off of, and often creating, the emotion around an event -- win or lose. Note, it fared so poorly in the World Cup, but made out financially better than Adidas.   The problem in this instance is LBJ himself. After the team's pre-game shootaround, the guy said, and we quote…

 

"For me, I know all of us shouldn't take this moment for granted,' James said. 'This is probably one of the biggest sporting events that is up there ever."

 

Really, LBJ?  Don't you think that is just a little arrogant and cocky in light of all the greatest moments in US Sports history? How about The Immaculate Reception/Franco Harris, the 1969 Miracle Mets, NC State's NCAA hoops victory in 1983, Dan Jansen's 1994 Gold Medal, Rulon Gardner tearing down the Russian wrestling empire, the 1999 Women's World Cup Victory, Spitz/Phelps 15 collective Golds, the Miracle on Ice, or how about Jesse Owens sticking it to Hitler in the 1936 Olympics in Berlin.  Seriously King James, do you really think that your triumphant return to Cleveland is the one of the biggest sporting events -- ever? "Ever" is a long time.

 

COLM - 3Q14 Earnings

Retail Callouts (10/31): NKE, Lebron, WMT, COLM, KSS, AMZN - 10 31 chart3

 

OTHER NEWS

 

KSS - Kohl’s Kicks Off Holiday 2014 Bigger Than Ever

(http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=60706&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1983615)

 

  • "Kohl’s Department Stores announced it will open its doors at 6 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day, giving customers more time than ever before to shop for top brands, exclusive products and amazing holiday gifts. Kohl’s will inspire customers with a huge assortment of the season’s most-wanted gifts and stocking stuffers, incredible savings opportunities all season long and an easier, convenient customer experience when shopping in-store or on Kohls.com with mobile, tablet or other devices."

 

AMZN - Amazon Cuts Price

(http://www.wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/financial/amazon-cuts-price-8016716?module=Business-latest)

 

  • "In what amounted to the first shot in a promotional war, the $74 billion e-commerce giant said it would start its holiday price cuts on Saturday with a countdown to Black Friday featuring “even more deals, all day, every day."
  • "'This year, we will have more than 15,000 hand-selected, limited-time promotions on hot products, including new early-access deals for Prime members on many Lightning Deals from Amazon.com and daily sales events on MyHabit,' said Steve Shure, vice president of worldwide marketing at Amazon."

 

FDO, DG, DLTR - Dollar General Extends Tender Offer to Acquire Family Dollar to December 31, 2014

(https://investor.shareholder.com/dollar/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=879599)

 

  • "Dollar General Corporation today announced that it has extended its tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Family Dollar Stores, Inc. for $80.00 per share in cash (including associated preferred share purchase rights) to 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on December 31, 2014, unless further extended."

 

WMT - Wal-Mart to Close 30 Japan Stores

(http://www.wwd.com/retail-news/mass-off-price/wal-mart-to-close-30-japan-stores-8016569?module=Retail-latest)

 

  • "Wal-Mart Stores Inc. plans to close 30 locations in Japan as it rejiggers the operation."
  • "The news on Thursday that Wal-Mart’s Seiyu GK will shutter 7 percent of its “nonperforming stores that are not aligned with the company’s strategy” came as Seiyu revealed plans to invest in several areas of strategic focus over the next few years to improve customer experience in stores and provide greater access to online shopping."

 

COLM - Sorel opens its first pop-up store

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/sorel-opens-its-first-pop-store-3)

 

  • "Premium boot brand Sorel opened its first-ever pop-up, in Manhattan's Meatpacking District."
  • "The 3,300-sq.-ft. shop is designed in the brand's fashion-meets-utilitarian aesthetic. It features stark contrasts of black and white, and sleek and modern forms."

 

 


THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK

Takeaway: Our Macro Playbook is a daily 1-page summary of our core ETF recommendations, investment themes and proprietary quantitative market context.

CLICK HERE to view the document. In today’s edition, we highlight:

 

  1. Looking past the fact that today will add to a rough couple of weeks for our Macro Playbook short ideas, we offer our thoughts on how to use the current quantitative setup in the market to set up for November and beyond
  2. Our catalyst for further downside in the small-to-mid-cap equity style factor remains the economic cycle and the current risk/reward setup dramatically favors booking gains on the long side and/or shorting it here
  3. Our fortuitous decision to back away from the long side of the Japanese yen (FXY) ahead of today's surprise easing out of the BoJ... sometimes you're lucky and sometimes the quantitative signal is just that pure (this time it was the latter)

 

Best of luck out there,

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team


Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

Halloween Poll of the Day: Which Central Bank Is Scarier?

The Bank of Japan shocked global financial markets today by expanding its massive stimulus spending in a stark admission that economic growth and inflation have not picked up as much as expected sending Japanese stocks soaring 4.8% to their highest close since 2007 as the yen skidded to near seven-year lows against the dollar.

 

This leads us to today's special Halloween poll question:


Cartoon of the Day: #ConsumerSlowing

Cartoon of the Day: #ConsumerSlowing - Deflation cartoon

 

U.S. consumer spending fell 0.2% in September, according to a government report this morning. It’s yet another sign of the weak US consumer.

 

subscribe to cartoon of the day

 

WTW: Debating Whether to Cover

Takeaway: Stronger 2014 results + Stagnant 2015 consensus estimates = Lower 2015 hurdle. May be less upside to the Short in an already crowded trade.

KEY POINTS

  1. 3Q14 SHOWS SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT: Y/Y declines in both revenues and membership moderated once again in 3Q14, with seasonal attrition improving over last year's levels.  That means WTW is likely heading into 2015 with a potentially higher starting member base, reducing the burden of the winter selling season.  We don't believe it will be enough.
  2. BUT 2015 DETAILS WERE VAGUE: We were expecting management to be more explicit regarding 2015 expectations.  WTW implied the headwind from a lower starting member base will be somewhat lower (from $0.60 to $0.55 prior).  That doesn't mean a whole lot since it's only looking at one side of the equations (starting members).  Management also suggested incremental cost investments of $25M next year, but reiterated its expectation that marketing expenses will remain flat, which we do not believe is a prudent move (see point 4).      
  3. CONSENSUS NOW ASKING FOR LESS: 2014 estimates have crept up to reflect the 3Q14 beat and raise, but 2015 estimates have remained largely unchanged).  In turn, 2015 consensus growth expectation have declined, which means the downside surprise factor on the guidance release has also.  We're still expecting considerable downside: 2015 revenue of $1.31B and EPS of $0.96 vs. Consensus of $1.40B and $1.86, respectively. However, when you couple that with sentiment that is already extremely bearish (Short interest > 40% of the float), there may not be too much more upside left in the Short from here. 
  4. THE BIGGER QUESTION: Is WTW's recent weakness secular? Because if it is, then they're shooting themselves in the foot with its cost-containment initiatives, specifically its plans for flat marketing spend in 2015.  WTW's member acquisitions costs have more than tripled in the last 3 years, which alone would suggest secular pressure (but we admit that is backward looking).  If WTW's issues are secular, then its member acquisition costs will keep climbing, which would mean flat marketing spend = worse winter selling season.  Consensus estimates imply improving member acquisition costs in 2015; we doubt that is likely.  We'll be monitoring our Google Trackers, stay tuned.  

WTW: Debating Whether to Cover - WTW   Member Acquisition Costs 1Q15E

WTW: Debating Whether to Cover - WTW   Selling Seasons 1Q15E

 

Hesham Shaaban, CFA

@HedgeyeInternet

 

Thomas Tobin

@HedgeyeHC


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.28%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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