Our Take on Existing Home Sales

Takeaway: Here's an excerpt from a note to institutional subscribers from earlier today where our analysts dove into the existing home sales report.

As we've highlighted, there's limited usefulness in the Existing Home Sales (EHS) report on the sales side since the data is well-telegraphed by the Pending Home Sales report a month earlier. We show this in the 1st chart below, where we've offset the EHS data by one month to show its correlation to PHS on a 1-month lag.  


Despite the limited real-time utility in terms of demand trends, there is value in the data on inventory and the composition of sales (first-time buyers, cash buyers, investor share). This month we flag the still-anemic level of first time homebuyers (29% vs 2001-2008 average of ~40%).


Our Take on Existing Home Sales - chart2


Our Take on Existing Home Sales - chart3


TOTAL EXISTING HOME SALES:  Total EHS resumed its uptrend in September after stumbling in August. Sales rose 2.4% MoM to 5.17mn SAAR. Meanwhile, the year-over-year rate of change slowed to a decline of 1.7%, an improvement vs the 5.3% decline in August. From a growth perspective, the YoY comps get progressively easier through the balance of the year as we lap the rising rate environment of 2H13. 


For comparison, pending home sales have advanced +11.6% since the trough in March vs +12.6% for EHS and, given the recent pattern highlighted above, its likely we see a modestly worse sequential EHS print in October.  

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more