TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 20, 2014

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 70 points or 3.01% downside to 1830 and 0.70% upside to 1900.                                             













  • YIELD CURVE: 1.83 from 1.82
  • VIX closed at 21.99 1 day percent change of -12.74%


MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 10am: Fed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on community banking in online forum
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 4W bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $24b 3M bills, $30b 6M bills



    • Senate, House out of session
    • FEC filing deadline for candidates, some Pacs, parties for Sept
    • 8am: NY Fed meeting on reforming culture, behavior in financial services; speakers include Sir David Walker at Barclays, UBS’s Axel Weber, JPMorgan’s Lee Raymond, Fed’s Daniel Tarullo, Morgan Stanley’s James Gorman
    • 1pm: Financial Services Roundtable, FBI, Secret Service conf. on cybersecurity
    • 2pm: FHFA Director Melvin Watt, HUD Secretary Julian Castro speak at Mortgage Bankers Assn conf.
    • 4:30pm: Freddie CEO Donald Layton, Fannie CEO Timothy Mayopoulos speak



  • IBM Agrees to Pay Globalfoundries $1.5 Billion to Take Chip Unit
  • Investors Plan $2.2b Bid for Adidas’s Reebok, WSJ Reports
  • Yahoo’s Mayer Faces Crucial Earnings Call Amid Investor Pressure
  • CEO Mayer Said to Refresh Turnaround Plan; Seek M&A: WSJ
  • Texas Ebola Cases Had Possible Contact With 300 People in U.S.
  • Spain Ebola Patient May Be Free of Virus After Negative Test
  • Cleco: Investor Group to Buy Cleco for $55.37/Shr in Cash
  • Fed to End Bond Buys This Month as Planned, Rosengren Says: WSJ
  • Obama May Seek an Iran Nuclear Deal Without Congress: NYT
  • Tesoro Acquires QEP Pipeline Assets in $2.5b Deal
  • McDonald’s Says Russia Inspecting More Than 200 Restaurants
  • Boeing Seeks Revised Schedule for $51b U.S. Aerial Tanker
  • Nutreco Agrees to Be Bought by SHV for About $3.4b
  • Sprint Job Reductions Will Include 452 at Kansas Headquarters
  • Marc Andreessen Resigns From EBay Board as PayPal Is Spun Off
  • Banks’ Range of Libor Calculation Methods May Be Standardized
  • Danone Hasn’t Yet Decided on Priorities for External Growth



    • Gannett (GCI) 8:30am, $0.55
    • Genuine Parts (GPC) 8:52am, $1.24
    • Halliburton (HAL) 7am, $1.10 - Preview
    • Hasbro (HAS) 6:30am, $1.45 - Preview
    • IBM (IBM) 7am, $4.32
    • Lennox Intl (LII) 8am, $1.41
    • Peabody Energy (BTU) 8am, $(0.66) - Preview
    • Valeant Pharma (VRX CN) 6am, $1.99 - Preview
    • VF Corp (VFC) 7am, $1.10 - Preview



    • Apple (AAPL) 4:30pm, $1.30 - Preview
    • BancorpSouth (BXS) 6:43pm, $0.33
    • Brookfield Canada (BOX-U CN) Aft-Mkt, C$0.41
    • Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) 4:05pm, $0.24
    • Celanese (CE) 5pm, $1.44
    • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 4:02pm, $3.83
    • CYS Investments (CYS) 4:05pm, $0.32
    • East West Bancorp (EWBC) 5:16pm, $0.60
    • Helix Energy Solutions (HLX) 5:30pm, $0.50
    • Hexcel (HXL) 4:05pm, $0.54
    • IDEX (IEX) 4:05pm, $0.84
    • Illumina (ILMN) 4:05pm, $0.56
    • Packaging Corp of America (PKG) 5pm, $1.26
    • Rambus (RMBS) 4:05pm, $0.13
    • Rent-A-Center (RCII) 4:25pm, $0.47
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) 6pm, $0.44
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) 4:30pm, $0.71
    • Zions Bancorp (ZION) 4:10pm, $0.44



  • Gold Advances in New York on Dollar Weakness to Falling Stocks
  • Brent Crude Oil Trades Near Level Seen as OPEC Test; WTI Steady
  • Gold Bulls Lured Back for First Time in Two Months: Commodities
  • Copper Declines With Other Industrial Metals on China’s Slowdown
  • Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Bets on Crude as Prices Tumble: Energy
  • Sumitomo’s $1.55 Billion Loss Shows Shale Isn’t Booming for All
  • Citrine’s Hommert Sees ‘Good Upside’ for Nickel Next Year
  • Sugar Millers See Thai Cane Output Dropping Below 100 Mln Tons
  • Rubber Reaches 1-Month High as Malaysia Sees 10% Drop in Output
  • Fire Shuts U.K.’s Didcot B Power Station; No Risk Seen to Supply
  • Iron Ore Risks Extending Collapse as Supply Jumps, Moody’s Says
  • Modi Uses Oil Slump to Ease Curbs Deterring Exxon, Chevron
  • Deeper Oil Slump Seen as ‘Disaster’ Risk for Australian LNG
  • Goldman Sees Copper Underperforming Most Base Metals in 2015

























The Hedgeye Macro Team


















Seeing Red

“We will have to send soldiers into this party seeing red.”

-Bernard Montgomery


World War II #history rarely accuses British Army General Bernard Montgomery of having a confidence problem. He was often decisive and ruthless. In the end, he was also a winner.


On the eve of landing on the beaches of Normandy, Monty’s bravado reminded Churchill’s Chief of Staff (Lieutenant Hastings Ismay) of the eve of Agincourt (as depicted in Henry V):


“He which hath no stomach to this fight – let him depart.” (The Guns At Last Light, pg 11)


Seeing Red - EL Chart 2


Back to the Global Macro Grind


Seeing red, in single-factor price momentum terms, is not what everyone saw on Friday’s US stock market bounce. That’s because not everyone looks at risk on a multi-factor, multi-duration basis. But that doesn’t mean it ceases to exist.


Actually, the Russell 2000 was down on Friday, so even in single-factor terms, many saw red. Don’t forget that even though the Russell was up for the 1st week in 7, over 60% of stocks in the Russell 2000 are currently crashing (-20% from their 12-month highs).


Back to the multi-factor thing, we highly suggest you consider Mr. Macro’s market message on a baseline 3-factor basis – PRICE, VOLUME, and VOLATILITY. In those terms, this is what we saw on Friday’s “bounce”:


  1. PRICE – both the SPX and Russell failed at all 3 core levels of @Hedgeye resistance (TRADE, TREND, TAIL)
  2. VOLUME – Total US Equity Market Volume was -11% and -4% vs. its 1 and 3 month averages, respectively
  3. VOLATILITY – VIX was down on the day but +3.5% and +60.3% for the week and YTD, respectively


Price momentum is an easy concept for people to understand (it goes up or down – look at the chart, bro!). That’s why many still use what I affectionately refer to as Moving Monkeys (50 and 200 day) in order to contextualize price. Unfortunately, that is not a risk management process.


The direction of price obviously matters, but so does multi-factor context. Here’s what I mean by that:


  1. BULLISH – Price Up, Volume Up, Volatility Down
  2. BEARISH – Price Down, Volume Up, Volatility Up


Within the context of a bearish intermediate-term TREND @Hedgeye, Price UP, Volume DOWN, and trending (implied) Volatility UP is bearish too.


Setting aside our research view of US #GrowthSlowing, to get bullish and “buy-the-damn-dip” in US Equity beta, what I would need to see is the SP500 close above my immediate-term TRADE line of 1949 on accelerating VOLUME and a break-down in the VIX below my TRADE line of 15.03.


Those of you paying attention to my immediate-term risk ranges will note that these levels aren’t in the area code of today’s ranges. And, to a degree, that’s the point. If I look beyond 1-3 days in duration (to 3 weeks), I’m seeing a heightening probability of more red.


Across asset classes (multi-factor), here are the other big #Quad4 deflationary forces at work across multiple-durations (TRADE and TREND):


  1. European Equity deflation of -0.9% last week (-2.9% YTD EuroStoxx600) is bearish TRADE and TREND
  2. Emerging Market Equity deflation of -1.9% last week (-3.2% YTD MSCI) is bearish TRADE and TREND
  3. CRB Index deflation of -1.1% last week (-2.7% YTD) is bearish TRADE and TREND
  4. Oil (WTI) deflation of -3.3% last week (-11.1% YTD) is bearish TRADE and TREND
  5. Energy Equity (XLE) deflation of -1.1% last week (-6.6% YTD) is bearish TRADE and TREND


Then, of course, you have trivial risk signals like:


  1. US 10yr Treasury Yield crashing (-27% YTD) to 2.19% (bearish TRADE, TREND, and TAIL)
  2. US Treasury Yield Spread crashing (-31% YTD) to +182bps wide (10yr minus 2yr)
  3. And Credit Spreads starting to move off of their all-time lows as equity and commodity volatilities breakout


“So”, yes, I do see more red pending in US, European, and Emerging Market Equities in the coming weeks and months. And, no, I don’t think last week’s immediate-term capitulation was the bottom.


But consensus does! Here’s the updated net positioning of hedge funds in non-commercial CFTC futures/options terms:


  1. SP500 (Index + E-mini) got longer by +5,537 contracts to a net LONG position of +54,153 last week
  2. 10yr Treasury Bond saw shorts get -6,976 contracts shorter last week to a net SHORT position of -58,930
  3. Crude Oil bulls only gave up -14,225 contracts last week, keeping the net LONG position at +285,500 contracts!


In other words, consensus got longer of the US stock market, shorter of the Long Bond, and not nearly less-long enough of a crashing Oil price.


I know that some are frustrated out there with their performance. I can assure you that I’ve been there and had to deal with that. But there comes a time where you have to choose between being consensus and not seeing any more red in your P&L.


Our Immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:


UST 10yr Yield 2.09-2.28%


RUT 1040-1101

VIX 20.46-28.92

WTI Oil 79.96-84.58

Gold 1211-1251


Best of luck out there this week,


Seeing Red - CoD seeing red

Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

October 20, 2014

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Investing Ideas Newsletter

Takeaway: Current Investing Ideas: EDV, GLD, RH, TLT and XLP.

Below are Hedgeye analysts’ latest updates on our five current high-conviction long investing ideas and CEO Keith McCullough’s updated levels for each.


*Please note that we removed Legg Mason (LM) and Owens Corning (OC) this week from our Investing Ideas list.


We also feature two institutional research notes which offer valuable insight into the markets and economy.


Investing Ideas Newsletter     - II 


Trade :: Trend :: Tail Process - These are three durations over which we analyze investment ideas and themes. Hedgeye has created a process as a way of characterizing our investment ideas and their risk profiles, to fit the investing strategies and preferences of our subscribers.

  • "Trade" is a duration of 3 weeks or less
  • "Trend" is a duration of 3 months or more
  • "Tail" is a duration of 3 years or less


Beware the Bounce

Investing Ideas Newsletter     - bounce cartoon 10.17.14

Be wary of Friday's bounce in the stock market.




The week ending October 17th, 2014 was another supportive week for the slow-growth, yield-chasing trade we continue to recommend.


Domestically speaking, the data continues to come our way as we continue to anticipate a reactionary dovish policy response out of the Federal Reserve – particularly amid collapsing inflation expectations and a breakdown in commodity prices.

  • Food, energy and gas led the -0.1% MoM decline in PPI-FD in September with both core and headline decelerating -20bps sequentially to +1.6% YoY. 
  • In the face of aggregate income growth and strong initial claims, Retail Sales unexpectedly dropped MoM for the first time since JAN, showcasing broad deceleration across 11 of 13 industries.
  • U.S. housing data slowed as we watched Homebuilder Confidence, measured by NAHB’s HMI, decline to 55 in October, a drop of -5 points vs. the 9 year high reading of 59 recorded in SEPT. To be more clear, there has been a MoM decline across all three sub-indices in both current sales and current traffic, along with regional homebuilder confidence declining across all regions for the time since FEB.

Internationally speaking, in our 10/15 note titled, “Macro Medley: 0 for (Quad#4)” we highlighted how our global macro monitor is currently showcasing a near-universal negative trend of estimate revisions for both growth and inflation over the last quarter across both developed and EM markets.


With #EuropeSlowing, Japan slowing and China slowing simultaneously, we continue to expect slowing global growth to weigh on both business and investor confidence and reflexively perpetuate a negative feedback look in the domestic economy over the intermediate term.


In brief, you want to be long/overweight the asset classes and style factors that have weathered recent financial market volatility (i.e. Treasuries, munis, cash, and large-cap/high-yield/liquid equities), while remaining short/underweight its inverse (high beta, small cap illiquidity and early cycle leverage). That means remaining long of TLT, EDV, and XLP.


We added gold (GLD) to investing ideas on the long-side back in May when the outlook for U.S. economic growth was in what we call a QUAD#3 set-up in our GROWTH, INLFATION, POLICY model. The extensive swath of economic data input was collectively signaling that growth was slowing with inflation accelerating. Commodities (and any commodity-linked asset classes), treasuries, and fixed assets inflate in this set-up.


With the turn now into QUAD#4, growth is still slowing and the slope of inflation is now DECELERATING. A QUAD#4 set-up does not (and will not) bode well for commodities, but we’re safe to say gold markets are driven by additional factors given its currency-like negative correlation to the dollar and U.S. treasury bonds. 


Investing Ideas Newsletter     - gold usd correls


With growth slowing in Europe as well, we have to keep an eye on further devaluation from ECB President Mario Draghi, but with the current set-up in the domestic economy, we would like to front-run the next Federal Reserve Policy move, and stick with our gold position.

  • GOLD vs. USD: Our GIP model is still front-running a full-year 2014 GDP print below consensus and fed estimates, and we expect downwardly revised growth estimates echoed with a more dovish tone from the Fed which will be BEARISH for the USD, and thus BULLISH for GOLD.

To exemplify the importance of front-running the Federal Reserve policy chatter, observe to the follow-through market moves after Janet Yellen’s commentary last Wednesday on the minutes release from the September 16-17th meeting:




a.k.a “we are not hawkish, and we’re not reverting on engrained beliefs on how monetary policy should intervene in the marketplace.”


Since her commentary, the market moves, and thus our reason for staying long of gold are self-explanatory:

  • GLD: +1.18%
  • UST 10-year yield: -5.0% to 2.19%
  • USD Index: -0.39%
  • CRB Index: -1.4% (divergence with Gold)                   


Earlier this week, we were reviewing a true comparable for Restoration Hardware. It's so hard to find a comp for RH. People look at West Elm, or Williams-Sonoma, but they're really different customers looking for a different aesthetic at a different price point.


But take a look at Arhaus (pronounced Our-House). It is by far and away the closest we've ever come to seeing the “Resto look” in a place that's not Resto. 


Granted, the prices are higher, the quality is lower, and the design is a 7 to RH's 10. It also lacks the size and scale to compete with RH's prices. But this is one to watch. 


* * * * * * * * * * 


Click on each title below to unlock the content.


Oil Has Further Downside Before The Bottom

The expectation for a supply/demand floor is not a catalyst for volatility-induced real-time market moves.

Investing Ideas Newsletter     - oil wells sunset full


Taxable Bond Bleeding Continues - BlackRock Puts Up Soft Equity Results

Dislocation at PIMCO continued last week with BlackRock signaling weak retail and institutional equity trends in yesterday's earnings.

Investing Ideas Newsletter     - blackrock full

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye

Takeaway: Here's a quick look at some of the top videos, cartoons, market insights and more from Hedgeye this past week.


Contributor Call: Short John Deere ($DE), Says BluePac's Chris Sommers

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough talks to Seeking Alpha Contributor and BluePac managing partner Chris Sommers about Sommers' high conviction short idea, John Deere. It's the latest from Hedgeye's video partnership with Seeking Alpha.


Video | McCullough: Why Volume Matters

In this excerpt from Tuesday's Morning Macro Call  for institutional subscribers, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why accelerating volume in a down move is a clear risk signal. He also has more details about volume in our Early Look and Morning Newsletter products.


Real Conversations: Hanke, McCullough Talk Macro, Money Supply and More

 In this edition of Real Conversations, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough has a wide-ranging conversation with Steve Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics at  Johns Hopkins University and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute.


Video | Daryl Jones Talks Market Peak on Fox Business 

Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones comments on investors reassessing growth forecasts after the market peak and struggles the consumer will face with Sandra Smith on Fox Business Network. Jones' remarks begin at 2:05 in the video above. 


Crank It Up

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - Bear volume 10.14.14

As markets are melting down, volume is going up.  Take Monday’s sell-off, for example. Total exchange volume soared 44% compared to its three-month average.


Safe Waters

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - TLT safewaters 10.15.14

In this market selloff, investors should ride with Treasuries.


Napoleon Complex

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - COD 10.15.14


#Nice Behavior

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - COD 10.14.14


 Oil Prices

As West Texas Intermediate crude drops to nearly a five-year low just above $80 a barrel Thursday morning, we wanted to know...



real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.