MORTGAGE DEMAND - THE SOFT STREAK ENDS AT 12

Takeaway: Housing demand shows its first sign of life in months, rising 2.4% W/W and 3.0% Q/Q (4Q14 v 3Q14).

Our Hedgeye Housing Compendium table (below) aspires to present the state of the housing market in a visually-friendly format that takes about 30 seconds to consume. 

 

*Note - to maintain cross-metric comparability, the purchase applications index shown in the table below represents the monthly average as opposed to the most recent weekly data point.

 

MORTGAGE DEMAND - THE SOFT STREAK ENDS AT 12  - Compendium 100814

 

Today's Focus: MBA Mortgage Applications

 

MBA Mortgage Applications

The Mortgage Bankers Association today released its weekly mortgage applications survey data for the week ended October 3rd. 

  • Total Mortgage Applications rose +3.8% W/W as the sub-170 streak on the Purchase index – the longest such soft streak since April of 1995 – ends at 12 weeks with purchase demand rising +2.4% sequentially to start 4Q. 
  • Purchase Activity is off to a good start in 4Q, tracking +3.0% Q/Q and down just -5% Y/Y. As the first chart below shows, the comps ease notably against 4Q13 and will ease further into 1Q next year.
  • Refinance activity rose +5% W/W sequentially alongside easy comps and a -3 bps drop in the 30Y FRM contract.  After an expedited +14 bps, 4 week advance in rates to 4.39% on September 19th, we’ve retraced much of that over the last two weeks.  down to 4.30%.

 

 MORTGAGE DEMAND - THE SOFT STREAK ENDS AT 12  - Purchase Qtrly

 

MORTGAGE DEMAND - THE SOFT STREAK ENDS AT 12  - Purchase   Refi YoY   

 

MORTGAGE DEMAND - THE SOFT STREAK ENDS AT 12  - Purchase Apps LT w summary stats 

 

MORTGAGE DEMAND - THE SOFT STREAK ENDS AT 12  - Composite Apps LT w summary stats 

 

MORTGAGE DEMAND - THE SOFT STREAK ENDS AT 12  - 30Y FRM

 

 

 

About MBA Mortgage Applications:

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s mortgage applications index covers more than 75% of mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. It does not include loans delivered through wholesale broker and correspondent channels. The MBA mortgage purchase applications index is considered a leading indicator of single-family home sales and construction. Moreover, it is the only housing index that is released on a weekly basis. 

 

Frequency:

The MBA Purchase Apps index is released every Wednesday morning at 7 am EST.

 

  

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Christian B. Drake

 


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