Our Hedgeye Housing Compendium table (below) aspires to present the state of the housing market in a visually-friendly format that takes about 30 seconds to consume.
*Note - to maintain cross-metric comparability, the purchase applications index shown in the table below represents the monthly average as opposed to the most recent weekly data point.
Today's Focus: MBA Mortgage Applications
MBA Mortgage Applications
The Mortgage Bankers Association today released its weekly mortgage applications survey data for the week ended October 3rd.
- Total Mortgage Applications rose +3.8% W/W as the sub-170 streak on the Purchase index – the longest such soft streak since April of 1995 – ends at 12 weeks with purchase demand rising +2.4% sequentially to start 4Q.
- Purchase Activity is off to a good start in 4Q, tracking +3.0% Q/Q and down just -5% Y/Y. As the first chart below shows, the comps ease notably against 4Q13 and will ease further into 1Q next year.
- Refinance activity rose +5% W/W sequentially alongside easy comps and a -3 bps drop in the 30Y FRM contract. After an expedited +14 bps, 4 week advance in rates to 4.39% on September 19th, we’ve retraced much of that over the last two weeks. down to 4.30%.
About MBA Mortgage Applications:
The Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s mortgage applications index covers more than 75% of mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. It does not include loans delivered through wholesale broker and correspondent channels. The MBA mortgage purchase applications index is considered a leading indicator of single-family home sales and construction. Moreover, it is the only housing index that is released on a weekly basis.
The MBA Purchase Apps index is released every Wednesday morning at 7 am EST.
Joshua Steiner, CFA
Christian B. Drake