THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 2, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 1.17% downside to 1980 and 0.28% upside to 2009.                                                        

                                                                       

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.88 from 1.86
  • VIX closed at 11.98 1 day percent change of -0.58%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Aug. final (prior 58)
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, Aug., est. 57 (prior 57.1)
  • ISM Prices Paid, Aug., est. 58.8 (prior 59.5)
  • 10am: Construction Spending, July, est. 0.8% (prior -1.8%)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Sept., est. 45.5 (prior 44.5)
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 4W bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $28b 3M bills, $24b 6M bills, $15b 11-day cash management bills

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate, House out on final week of summer recess
    • Presdident Obama leaves for a trip to Europe; in Estonia tomorrow to meet with Baltic state presidents
    • Moelis names Eric Cantor as vice chairman, member of board

 

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Iliad said in talks w/buyout firms on new T-Mobile US bid
  • Apple said to partner with Visa, MasterCard on iPhone wallet
  • Norwegian Cruise said near $3b buy of Prestige Cruises: Rtrs
  • AT&T to buy America Movil Mexico assets, Financiero reports
  • America Movil said to hire BofA to sell assets
  • BofA asks judge to dismiss Countrywide fraud verdict
  • Apollo said to mull $2b offer for Kloeckner Pentaplast
  • Compuware said to be near deal to sell itself: WSJ
  • J&J’s Pinnacle hips face first trial over poisoned patients
  • Goldman Sachs loaned Banco Espirito Santo $835m in July
  • Apple probes report iCloud hacked to gain stars’ nude photos
  • Cipla targets U.S. w/Glaxo’s Advair, anti-AIDS medicines
  • Symantec said to narrow CEO picks, with Brown leading list
  • Fiat plans to sell withdrawal shares with New York listing
  • Sanofi-Regeneron drug cuts cholesterol, has prevention promise
  • Heineken to sell Mexican packaging unit to Crown Holdings
  • Aluminum warehousing antitrust suits dismissed by U.S. judge
  • Mozilo sees no villainy at Countrywide as govt. closes in
  • Facebook purchase of WhatsApp gets review by EU regulators
  • Kellogg seeks stake in Egyptian sweets-maker Bisco Misr
  • Exelis to cut 70% of jobs; COMET-1 trial fails to meet endpt
  • Calif. lawmakers set to adjourn without incentives for Tesla
  • NBA’s Durant to sign $300m Nike deal, besting Under Armour
  • Microchip says any offer for CSR likely to be in cash
  • Akzo’s cost-cutting CEO said to be solicited for $7b deal
  • Russia said to plan sovereign fund move over sanctions
  • Macau casino rev. falls for 3rd month on China graft probes
  • France urges ECB action to weaken euro on deflation threat
  • Swiss economy unexpectedly stalls as euro area takes toll

 

EARNINGS:

    • Conn’s Inc. (CONN) 7am, $0.75
    • Guidewire Software (GWRE) 4:05pm, $0.28
    • TerraForm Power (TERP) Post-mkt, $0.07

               

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Copper Advances in London With U.S. Manufacturing Seen Expanding
  • China Banks Boost Precious Metals Hoard Amid Gold-Leasing Demand
  • Agriculture ETPs Losing Investors on Record Harvest: Commodities
  • Gold Falls to 1-Week Low as Palladium Trades Below 13-Year High
  • Arabica Coffee Rises to 1-Month High on Brazil; Raw Sugar Gains
  • Corn Climbs as Ukraine Escalation Spurs Black Sea Export Concern
  • Ebola Putting West Africa Harvests at ‘Serious Risk’, FAO Says
  • BullionVault’s Gauge of Client Buying Falls Toward Four-Year Low
  • Palm Rebounds From 2009 Low on Demand Recovery, Weaker Ringgit
  • Heraeus Joins Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Free-Trade Zone Bourse
  • Keystone Redux Haunts Trans Mountain as Fight Shifts to Climate
  • Japan Seeks to Buy 110,146 Tons of Milling Wheat in Tender
  • A Mile Below Paris Drillers Hit Hot Pools to Warm Houses: Energy
  • Palm Oil Seen Rebounding by Sime’s Dass as Demand Recovers

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more