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The Best of This Week From Hedgeye

Takeaway: Here's a quick look at some of the top videos, cartoons, market insights and more from Hedgeye this past week.

HEDGEYE TV

Q&A: Is The Stock Market Cheap?

In the Q&A portion of Tuesday's Morning Macro Call, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough answers a subscriber question about whether or not stocks are cheap.

Deep Dive Into Semi Sector

Hedgeye semiconductor analyst Craig Berger discusses major trends in semis including M&A activity, and gives us his take on three key stocks in the sector.

CARTOON

 All Time SPY-Highs

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - Waiting bear 08.27.2014

Keith McCullough wrote in Wednesday's Morning Newsletter, "While the stock, bond, and commodity market bubbles have all had different narratives, one thing is not different – prices go up, then down, a lot."

 

Burning Euro

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - bruning euro 08.25.2014

ECB chief Mario Draghi is evidently a bigger fan of monetary cowbell than previously imagined. 

CHART

 U.S. Personal Savings Rate vs. Asset Price Inflation 

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - COD 8.27.14

As you can see in the Chart of The Day from Wednesday, the U.S. Personal Savings Rate (% of Disposable Income) has been falling for the past 3 years (as the stock market makes new highs).

POLL OF THE DAY 

Burger King

Right or wrong, Burger King's merger with Canada-based Tim Hortons has been lumped into the growing public outcry over tax inversions. Does this spell trouble for their merger? Cast your vote and let us know your thoughts.

Nike or Under Armour?

Which brand would you rather be wearing? Cast your vote and leave a comment in our Poll of the Day.


Yep, US GDP Growth Is Slowing

Takeaway: 3Q growth estimates coming down....again. Don't say we didn't warn you.

This note was originally published August 29, 2014 at 13:56 in Macro

We’re seeing 3Q growth estimates come down today (again) alongside soft consumer spending data in July. 

 

Real consumer spending declined the most in 6 months to start 3Q, decelerating on both a 1Y and 2Y basis with softness ubiquitous across Services, Durables and Nondurables.  Notably, the savings rate ticked up to 5.7% - the highest level in 18 months.

 

In short, while the income-savings dynamics are shifting favorably for forward consumption, in the immediate/intermediate term (& inclusive of today’s negative growth revision), we think consensus estimates -  which remain laughably linear – need to come in further.

 

Yep, US GDP Growth Is Slowing - drake222

 

Yep, US GDP Growth Is Slowing - consumer spending YoY

 

Yep, US GDP Growth Is Slowing - Chart of the Day normal

 

 

 

Christian B. Drake

cdrake@hedgeye.com

@HedgeyeUSA


Commodities: Weekly Quant

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart1 divergences

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 2 CRB Deltas

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart3 USD Correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart4 S P Correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart5 Volume

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart6 implied vol

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart7 cftc sentiment

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart8 1month correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart9 3 month correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart10

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart11 1 YR correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart12 3 yr correls

 

 

Macro Team


Attention Students...

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The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 1st of September through the 5th of September is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

The Week Ahead - 08.29.14 Week Ahead

 


#Q3Slowing

We’re seeing 3Q growth estimates come down today (again) alongside soft consumer spending data in July. 

 

Real consumer spending declined the most in 6 months to start 3Q, decelerating on both a 1Y and 2Y basis with softness ubiquitous across Services, Durables and Nondurables.  Notably, the savings rate ticked up to 5.7% - the highest level in 18 months.

 

In short, while the income-savings dynamics are shifting favorably for forward consumption, in the immediate/intermediate term (& inclusive of today’s negative growth revision), we think consensus estimates -  which remain laughably linear – need to come in further.

 

#Q3Slowing - PCE   RS MoM

 

#Q3Slowing - consumer spending YoY

 

#Q3Slowing - Chart of the Day normal

 

 

 

Christian B. Drake

@HedgeyeUSA


Cartoon of the Day: Fightin' Words

Takeaway: Don't look now (if you're in the macro consensus) but the 10-Year is at 2.33%.

Cartoon of the Day: Fightin' Words - Fightin  Words 08.29.2014


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%
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