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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 21, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or 1.59% downside to 1955 and 0.38% upside to 1994.                              

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - 1

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - 2

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.97 from 1.96
  • VIX closed at 11.78 1 day percent change of -3.52%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):          

  • Kansas City Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyo. (runs through Aug. 23)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Aug. 16, est. 303k (prior 311k)
  • Continuing Claims, Aug. 9, est. 2.520m (prior 2.544m)
  • 9:45am: Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Aug. preliminary, est. 55.7 (prior 55.8)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Aug. 17 (prior 36.8)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Aug., est. 19.7 (prior 23.9)
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, July, est. 5.02m (prior 5.04m)
  • 10am: Index of Leading Economic Indicators, July, est. 0.6% (prior 0.3%)
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 3M/6M bills, 2Y/5Y/7Y notes, 2Y FRN
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $16b 5Y TIPS in reopening

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama on vacation on Martha’s Vineyard
    • Senate, House out on August recess
    • 8:30am: FedScoop holds summit on lowering cost of govt with IT, with CIOs, CTOs from federal agencies panelists
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: McConnell’s Senate Plan; Ads Hit Sullivan               

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Countrywide co-founder Mozilo said to face subprime lawsuit
  • BofAML mortgage settlement with U.S. may come today
  • BofAML said to plan salary increase for junior bankers
  • JPMorgan said to consider raising some staff salaries >20%
  • Citigroup said to consider ~20% raise for junior bankers
  • Wal-Mart to lower prices for iPhone 5c, 5s: L.A. Times
  • Dollar General says it was misled during Family Dollar talks
  • Northrup, BAE, GD among 5 cos. splitting Navy CANES contract
  • Carlyle’s 2012 buyout Axalta files for $100m U.S. IPO
  • Media General cut price for Lin Media on loss of CBS deal
  • TV networks seek larger share of pay TV channel sales: WSJ
  • Independent TV studios attract big media M&A: N.Y. Post
  • Chinese hackers affecting U.S. medical tech, pharma cos.
  • Ford planning new hybrid car for late 2018: Reuters
  • Hertz investors said to want former Dollar Thrifty CEO
  • USAF grounds 82 F-16 jets due to cracks: L.A. Times
  • GE considering S. Korean fighter jet development: Yonhap
  • Chinese PMI misses ests., falls for first time since March

AM EARNS

    • Buckle (BKE) 7am, $0.53 - Preview
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) 7:31am, $0.64 - Preview
    • Hormel Foods (HRL) 6:30am, $0.48
    • Nordson (NDSN) 7am, $1.13
    • Perry Ellis Int’l (PERY) 7am, ($0.12)
    • Sears Holdings (SHLD) 6am, ($2.58)
    • Stage Stores (SSI) 6am, $0.52

PM EARNS

    • Accuray (ARAY) 4:01pm, ($0.06)
    • Aeropostale (ARO) 4:01pm, ($0.50) - Preview
    • Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD) 4pm, $0.19
    • Fresh Market (TFM) 4:02pm, $0.35
    • GameStop (GME) 8:30am, $0.18
    • Gap (GPS) 4pm, $0.69 - Preview
    • Intuit (INTU) 4pm, $0.07
    • Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) 4:05pm, $0.28
    • Mentor Graphics (MENT) 4:05pm, $0.15
    • Ross Stores (ROST) 4pm, $1.08 - Preview
    • Salesforce.com (CRM) 4:05pm, $0.12

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Drops to 2-Month Low on Fed Rate Outlook as Platinum Falls
  • Palm Oil Seen by UBS Extending Decline on Outlook for Supplies
  • Philippines Nickel Exports to China Plug Gap Left by Indonesia
  • U.S. Mint Platinum Coins Bypassed in Rush for Gold: Commodities
  • All Eyes on Atlantic as Potential Tropical Storm Starts Stirring
  • Israel Nears Gas Sales to Egypt as Mideast Unrest Flares: Energy
  • Market Shrugs 3M B/D Oil Supply Loss to Geopolitics: Julian Lee
  • China Spot Copper Fees Seen Rising as Mine Output Increases
  • U.K. Natural Gas Options Trading Signals Ukraine Supply Concerns
  • Wheat Extends Decline as Ukraine Tension Fails to Disrupt Supply
  • Ebola Virus Threat Sees Sierra Leone Miner Cut Iron-Ore Target
  • India Raises Royalty on Iron Ore Output to 15% From 10%
  • Wheat Harvest in Australia Seen Exceeding Forecast After Rains
  • Brent Spread May Widen as Speculators Add Bets: Chart of the Day
  • Gold Refiner Predicts Import Curbs by India Probably Permanent

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - 5A

 

CURRENCIES


The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - 6A

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - 3A

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - 4A

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - 7

ASIAN MARKETS

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - 8

MIDDLE EAST

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - 9

The Hedgeye Macro Team