The Hedgeye Daily Outlook

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 18, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or 1.08% downside to 1934 and 0.51% upside to 1965. 

                                                                                                                              

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 1 major levels

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 2 sector levels

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 3 Equity Sentiment

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.94 from 1.93
  • VIX closed at 13.15 1 day percent change of 5.88%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

 

  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Aug., est. 53 (pr 53)
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 4W bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $29b 3M bills, $25b 6M bills
  • U.S. Rates Weekly Agenda
  • FX Weekly Agenda

 

GOVERNMENT:

  • Senate, House out on August recess
  • Former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., said he will resign from Congress Aug. 18
  • Former CFTC commissioner Scott O’Malia’s first day as chief executive of International Swaps and Derivatives Assn

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

 

  • Valeant extends tender offer for Allergan until end of 2014
  • Missouri Gov. Nixon dispatches National Guard to Ferguson
  • Kurdish forces take control of Iraq’s largest dam
  • Banks may lose Fed discount loans as part of living wills: FT
  • Russia widens band on ruble trading vs USD-EUR basket to 9
  • Google buys photo-analysis startup Jetpac; terms not disclosed
  • BofAML said to be selected by Gulf Capital as main IPO adviser
  • Wintergreen exits Berkshire Hathaway stake over Coke pay
  • Fmr. SAC COO Kumin’s firm said to get $400m from Leucadia: WSJ
  • Tesoro refinery explosion case closes; no charges brought
  • Boeing 747 hull said to have been punctured in July collision
  • Twitter to meet Turkish govt Aug. 25 on taxes, grievences: HT
  • IBM says CFIUS approves x86-based server unit sale to Lenovo
  • Target may keep some stores open until midnight: WSJ
  • Judge in GM class-action ignition switch case names counsel
  • U.S. banks see Ireland alternative in case of U.K. move: FT
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles top box office for second wkend
  • China home prices fall in majority of cities on weak demand
  • U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Industrials, Energy, Health, Consumer, Tech, Materials, Media/Ent, Real Estate
  • North American M&A Agenda
  • Jackson Hole, Yellen, Draghi, Fed Minutes: Wk Ahead Aug. 16-23 

PM EARNS:

  • Urban Outfitters (URBN) 4pm, $0.48

                                                                                                                               

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

  • Palladium Advances to 13-Year High in New York as Gold Declines
  • Nickel Drops as Chinese House-Price Slump Fuels Slowdown Concern
  • Robusta Coffee Drops Amid Rains in Vietnam; White Sugar Falls
  • Hedge Funds Extend Longest Soy Bear Run Since 2006: Commodities
  • Shanghai Gold Exchange Said to Plan FTZ Contract for September
  • Refinery Breakdowns Boost Gasoline as Labor Day Nears: Energy
  • OPEC Oil Call May Increase on Economic Growth, Rising Prices
  • Oil Mkt Struggles to Find Buyers to Take Physical Delivery: MS
  • European Naphtha Shipments to Asia Rise to 12 Cargoes in Aug.
  • Copper Charges in China Seen Rising to $120/t as Freeport Ships
  • Potential $60 Billion Mine in Play as Rio Reviews Its Stake
  • Palm Oil Declines to Lowest Level in Five Years on Weak Exports
  • China Plan to Cut Wholesale Power Price May Help Coal Producers
  • Steel Rebar Declines on China Home Prices as Ore at Record Low

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 4 commodities

 

CURRENCIES


The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 5 currencies

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 6 global equity 1 day change

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 7 global equity YTD change

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 8 Europe

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 9 Asia

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

The Hedgeye Daily Outlook - chart 10 Middle East

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


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