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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 15, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 54 points or 2.52% downside to 1906 and 0.25% upside to 1960.                     

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.98 from 1.99
  • VIX closed at 12.42 1 day percent change of -3.72%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):     

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Aug., est. 20 (prior 25.6)
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand m/m, July, est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%)
  • 9am: Net Long-term TIC Flows, June (prior $19.4b)
  • 9:15am: Ind. Production m/m, July, est. 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
  • 9:55am: UofMich Confidence, Aug. prelim, est. 82.5 (pr 81.8)
  • 10:45am: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Brainerd, Minn.
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate, House on Aug. recess; President Obama on vacation on Martha’s Vineyard
    • 2pm: Foreign Policy Initiative conf. call on “Iraq in Turmoil,” with Michael Pregent, adjunct lecturer, Natl Defense University’s College of Intl Security Affairs
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Hawaii Primary Timeline in Flux; Debates

WHAT TO WATCH:          

  • Coca-Cola to gain Monster Beverage stake in $2.15b deal
  • Berkshire redoes pay-TV bets with Charter stake, less DirecTV
  • Billionaire Paulson keeps stake in world’s biggest gold ETP
  • Icahn takes new activist position in Gannett, backs split plan
  • John Paulson bets on Allergan, takes 5.6m shr stake
  • J.C. Penney’s loss narrows as return to roots boosts sales
  • Supervalu says hackers may have stolen U.S. shoppers’ card data
  • Citigroup, JPM, others report July credit-card delinquencies
  • ZF talks to buy TRW Automotive said to hinge on Bosch JV exit
  • Chiquita sticks to Fyffes deal as Cutrale-Safra offer rejected
  • Applied Materials forecasts sales that may top analyst ests.
  • BlackBerry shipments rise from prior quarter under Chen’s watch
  • GM plans top-range Cadillac car, redesigned SRX for next year
  • Maliki resigns as Iraqi prime minister to make way for Abadi
  • U.K. keeps momentum in second quarter with 0.8% GDP growth
  • BOJ officials said to mull cutting growth forecast for 2014
  • Hong Kong cuts 2014 growth target after unexpected contraction
  • BHP eyes Billiton assets split to focus on iron ore to coal
  • Impala Platinum sees profit falling as much as 75% after strike
  • Ackman’s Pershing Square sues U.S. over Fannie, Freddie bailout
  • Samsung buys startup SmartThings to move into smart homes
  • U.S. video-game industry sales rise 16% on console spending
  • Ebola outbreak in W. Africa worse than cases suggest, WHO says
  • Jackson Hole, Yellen, Draghi, Fed Minutes: Wk Ahead Aug. 16-23

EARNINGS:

    • Estee Lauder (EL) 7:30am, $0.55

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Billionaire Paulson Keeps Stake in Top Gold Fund as Price Climbs
  • WTI Oil Set for Weekly Loss With Brent on Weaker Demand Outlook
  • Brazil Turns Aluminum Importer as Power Costs Surge: Commodities
  • Copper Rises Before U.S. Factory Output Data as Stockpiles Drop
  • London Silver Price Set at $19.86 an Ounce on First Day
  • Soybeans Drop as Rain Seen Helping Crop; Corn Climbs With Wheat
  • ABN Amro Adds Heads of Metals, Energy to Asia Commodities Team
  • Panama Says a $5.3 Billion Canal Expansion May Not Be Big Enough
  • Libyan Gas Flows to Italy Climb as Russian Supplies Threatened
  • Traders Lured to Bet on Power Overloads Worth Billions: Energy
  • Oil Sands Profits Most at Risk From Falling Crude Price: Study
  • BHP Eyes Billiton Assets Split to Focus on Iron Ore to Coal
  • Copper Traders Bearish on Slowing Economies to Demand Weakness
  • HSBC, Mitsui, ScotiaMocatta to Participate in New Silver Price

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

The Hedgeye Macro Team