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Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap

Investment Ideas

The table below lists our Investment Ideas as well as our Watch List -- a list of potential ideas that we are in the process of evaluating.  We intend to update this table regularly and will provide detail on any material changes.

 

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart1

Recent Notes

07/28/14 Monday Mashup: MCD, YUM and More

07/28/14 MCD: McLibel 2.0?

07/29/14 DRI: Light Gets In

07/31/14 YUM: Warning Shots Fired

08/04/14 Monday Mashup: Full Slate of Earnings

08/04/14 Invite: New Best Idea

Events This Week

Wednesday, August 13th

  • NDLS earnings call 4:30pm EST
  • FRSH earnings call 5:00pm EST

Thursday, August 14th

  • RRGB earnings call 10:00am EST

Chart of the Day

Got pricing power?  Chipotle does.  Traffic growth has more than doubled price growth over the past 5 years.

 

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart2

Recent News Flow

Monday, August 4th

  • DPZ upgraded to buy at Miller Tabak with an $81 PT.
  • JACK announced Sharon John will join the company's board of directors.  John has over 25 years of retail marketing, branding and executive management experience in both the public and private sectors.
  • MCD noted that China, Japan and certain other markets have been severely impacted following food safety issues.
  • PNRA CFO Roger Matthews resigned.  William Moreton, Panera's current Executive Vice Chairman, will serve as Interim CFO until a successor is found.
  • PLKI announced the resignation of the company's U.S. President, Ralph Bower.

Tuesday, August 5th

  • CAKE announced its newest restaurant opening in Trumbull, CT at the Westfield Trumbull Mall.

Wednesday, August 6th

  • FRGI announced it will consolidate all of its food distribution with Performance Food Group.
  • THI declared a $0.32 dividend payable to shareholders of record as of August 18th, 2014.
  • BOBE released an investor presentation to provide their take on a series of "misleading" statements made by Sandell Asset Management.
  • JACK debuted three new breakfast items, featuring two new breakfast burritos and croissant donuts.

Thursday, August 7th

  • THI was upgraded to outperform at BMO Capital.
  • SONC announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 as well as a $105 million share repurchase program for FY15.

Friday, August 8th

  • DRI Activist Starboard Value increased its stake in Darden from 8.0% to 8.8%.
  • CMG was downgraded to neutral at Longbow Research.

Sector Performance

The XLY (+1.1%) outperformed the SPX (+0.3%).  On average, casual dining stocks (-0.1%) underperformed and quick service stocks (+1.6%) outperformed the XLY Index.

 

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart3

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart4

XLY Quantitative Setup

From a quantitative perspective, the sector turned bearish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.

 

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart5

Casual Dining Restaurants


Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart6

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart7

Quick Service Restaurants


Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart8

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart9

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst



Retail Callouts (8/11): RL, NKE, ADI, PUMA, WMT

Takeaway: Hedgeye Retail Ideas List. Alibaba cleans up counterfeits-interesting dot.com oppty for brands in China. Puma doubling down on soccer.

HEDGEYE RETAIL IDEAS LIST

 

Retail Callouts (8/11): RL, NKE, ADI, PUMA, WMT - Chart1 8 11 2014

 

EVENTS TO WATCH

 

Tuesday (8/5)

  • KATE - Earnings Call: 10:00am
  • FOSL - Earnings Call: 4:30pm

 

Wednesday (8/6)

  • M - Earnings Call: 10:30am

 

Thursday (8/7)

  • WMT - Earnings Call: 7:00am
  • KSS - Earnings Call: 8:30am
  • JCP - Earnings Call: 4:30pm
  • JWN - Earnings Call 4:45pm

 

COMPANY NEWS

 

RL, NKE, ADI - Alibaba Cleans Up 'Gray Market' for Some Prestigious Brands

(http://online.wsj.com/articles/alibaba-cleans-up-gray-market-for-some-prestigious-brands-1407699693?mod=europe_home&cb=logged0.9719164434354752)

 

  • "Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is rolling out a powerful new incentive to attract luxury brands: removing some listings from its online shopping sites."
  • "Like many premium brands, Burberry PLC had been fretting about a flood of discount Burberry products—some of them fakes—on Alibaba's two big marketplaces, which accounted for 80% of China's estimated $300 billion in online shopping last year. Burberry hadn't authorized any of those vendors to sell its goods."
  • "Alibaba would do its best to get those products off its sites if Burberry opened its own shop on Alibaba's online mall, Burberry was told, according to people familiar with the talks. Burberry opened a store on Alibaba's Tmall in April."

 

Retail Callouts (8/11): RL, NKE, ADI, PUMA, WMT - chart2 8 11

 

Takeaway: As a brand you can’t argue with Alibaba's reach. It dominates the Chinese online marketplace, but for many counterfeit and brand integrity concerns were a non-starter. Then BRBY opened a banner on T-Mall in April and in a span of two months the number of 3rd party outlets offering Burberry branded products fell from 56 to just 1 - essentially eliminating the counterfeit threat in the process. Whatever you want to call it, forced coercion or cooperation it's clear that the platform offers some compelling advantages for brands who choose to partner with Alibaba. NKE, Adi, and GPS have already taken the leap, and we think it's an interesting opportunity for many more (particularly RL).

 

KER, Puma - Puma CEO confirms consideration for entry at BVB

(http://www.wiwo.de/unternehmen/handel/sportartikelhersteller-puma-chef-bestaetigt-ueberlegung-fuer-einstieg-beim-bvb/10309372.html)

 

  • "Puma CEO Bjørn Gulden has confirmed in an interview with business week for the first time that the sporting goods manufacturer is considering a shareholding in the listed Bundesliga club Borussia Dortmund."
  • "Here, the Puma CEO expects that BVB will continue to sell more jerseys outside of Germany abroad through its expansion of marketing."

 

Takeaway: Some of the article admittedly may be lost in (Google) translation - it's in German after all. Despite spending 3 months living in the country, I never got past learning how to order a beer. What we could glean from the interview with Puma's CEO, Bjorn Gulden, is that the other brand from Herzogenaurach plans to double down its core sports business, i.e. Soccer. The global soccer marketplace has evolved into a two horse race between Nike and Adi with UA nipping at their heels. We understand why the sport is such a particular point of emphasis following the World Cup, but Puma's timing couldn’t be worse. Following Adi's 70mm pound per year deal with ManU, it's clear for Puma that a renewed emphasis on Futbol won't be cheap.

 

OTHER NEWS

 

WMT - Chinese Regulators Investigate Wal-Mart Store

(http://www.wwd.com/retail-news/mass-off-price/chinese-regulators-investigate-wal-mart-store-7834468?module=hp-wirestories)

 

  • "Chinese regulators are investigating a Wal-Mart store in the southern city of Shenzhen for food safety violations, the official Xinhua news service reported, based on videos it said were taken by a Wal-Mart employee at one branch."
  • "The U.S. retail giant told Reuters that it had launched its own investigation in response to the video and found no evidence to support its claims, nor had multiple visits by authorities uncovered any wrongdoing."

 

WSM, RH - Williams-Sonoma and Pottery Barn to Exit Toronto's 100 Bloor Street West

(http://www.retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2014/8/100bloor)

 

  • "Early next year, Williams-Sonoma and Pottery Barn will exit Toronto's 100 Bloor Street West. As a result, about 37,000 square feet of new retail space will become available in the heart of Canada's 'Mink Mile'. 100 Bloor's landlord substantially raised its rents, according to sources."
  • "Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, and Pottery Barn Kids have occupied spaces at 100 Bloor Street West since 2001."

 

GPS - Would You Tweet for These Flip-Flops? Old Navy, Nike, Westin Hotels dole out freebies for social chatter

(http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/would-you-tweet-these-flip-flops-159382)

 

  • "Old Navy on Sunday wrapped up its second rollout of Twitter-enabled vending machines in Japan that dispense free flip-flops in exchange for sending a tweet from a kiosk. Earlier this summer, the retailer used 28 machines in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco leading up to a summer sale."

 

AMZN - Amazon Halts Some Disney Movie Preorders

(http://online.wsj.com/articles/amazon-halts-some-disney-movie-preorders-1407654416?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection)

 

  • "Amazon.com Inc. has halted preorders for some DVDs and Blu-ray discs from media giant Walt Disney Co., including popular titles such as "Captain America: The Winter Soldier," in an apparent contract dispute."
  • "The online retailer is restricting customers' ability to preorder physical copies of the films, promising to notify them when they become available. It is a tactic Amazon has used several times this year, including with Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros. studio, before reaching a resolution earlier this year, as well as a continuing spat with Hachette Book Group."

 


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LEISURE LETTER (08/11/2014)

Tickers: BYI, IGT, MGM, MPEL, WYNN, RCL

EVENTS

  • Aug 11:
    • HPT 2Q 1pm:
    • CZR 2Q 430pm: 844.231-441, pw: 55917191
    • STN 2Q 430pm
    • HTHT 2Q 9pm: , pw 7103 4558
  •  Aug 12:
    • HMIN 2Q 9pm: , pw HOME INNS
  • Aug 14:
    • GENTING SINGAPORE 2Q earnings
    • Revel Auction Proceedings

COMPANY NEWS

IGT – GTECH S.p.A. announced the U.S. antitrust authorities have granted early termination of the required waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976 relating to GTECH’s pending acquisition of International Game Technology (IGT), thereby satisfying one of the conditions required to finalize the transaction.  The transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of both companies, is currently expected to be completed in the first or Q2 of 2015.

TAKEAWAY:  A faster than expected clearance of a significant hurdle.

 

MGM / MGM China – (Macau Daily Times) the Company reportedly received the license approval for the full MGM Cotai building plan and now expects the new property to open mid-2016 – albeit potentially in phases.  

TAKEAWAY:  Licensing approval, but does the Company hold the construction permit to erect steel and build the superstructure above ground?

 

880:HK – late on Friday, Forefront of Macau Gaming announced the labor organization would protest and picket against SJM, its latest target. Previously, Forefront of Macau Gaming targeted labor actions against both Sands China and Galaxy.

TAKEAWAY:  Forefront of Macau Gaming is simply moving from operator to operator demanding higher pay for casino floor workers – despite the operators voluntarily increasing worker compensation.

                                  

BYI – launched a new 50 line, 5 line video slot game titled “Aloha Island”.  The slot title features tropical island symbols such as parrots, pearls, boat and more while also playing gentle island music.  The game allows for bets from $0.01 up to $100.

TAKEAWAY:  Another new game but for an industry facing strong demographic headwinds.

 

MPEL - The Taipei District Prosecutors Office charged the Taipei branch of MPEL with deliberate violation of foreign exchange controls and failure to maintain financial oversight when the Company transferred more than $NT5.4 billion ($194 million) between its Taiwan office and City of Dreams and Altira casinos located in Macau.

TAKEAWAY:  Could be an overhang on the stock.

                                  

WYNN – is coming under scrutiny for a $200,000 donation last winter to the Republican Governors Association, an organization that is now supporting Charlie Baker’s run for Massachusetts governor.  Massachusetts gambling law prohibits applicants for casino licenses from donating, directly or indirectly, money or in-kind contributions to “any group, political party, committee, or association organized in support” of a Massachusetts candidate. The association is a major funder of a television ad that is currently airing in the Boston market supporting Baker’s candidacy.

TAKEAWAY: Thus far there is no evidence of any wrongdoing by WYNN.

 

MGM – (Bloomberg) – Renew NJ license

According to CFO Dan D'Arrigo, MGM expects to renew its NJ gaming license soon.  MGM will keep 50% ownership of Borgata.  MGM’s license renewal will be considered by New Jersey regulators next month.

TAKEAWAY: A definite positive, but expected.

 

Melco International Development MelcoLot, controlled by Melco International Development Ltd, said on August 6, it was informed by Spanish authorities that BCN Integrated Resorts 2’s bid had passed to the second phase of the tender process, “which consists of preparation and assessment of detailed development proposals and granting of authorisations for the installation and exploitation of casinos”.  It is expected that BCN World will include casinos, hotels, convention centres, leisure centres and residential areas. Each casino licensee would have to invest a minimum of EUR300 million (US$403 million) in BCN World.

TAKEAWAY:  An interesting opportunity that has received little interest from the investment community. Gaming tax rate needs to be low.

 

RCL (Cruise Critic) – Celebrity Cancels 2015 Round-Japan Sailings Due to Charter  

Two 2015 sailings to Japan on Celebrity Millennium have been canceled and another changed, due to a private charter.  The charter affects passengers who booked on the 14-night Japan cruises for September 27, 2015 and October 11, 2015.  The September 11, 2015 sailing is also affected and will end in Shanghai instead of Tokyo.

TAKEAWAY:  The complications with sailings in Japan continues. 

 

RCL – delayed the float out of Quantum of the Seas until Tuesday, August 12, 2014 at 4 p.m. local time.  According to RCL, the delay was the result of the poor weather forecast at the Meyer Werft dockyard.

TAKEAWAY:  Minor delay

INDUSTRY NEWS

New Jersey gaming (NJ.com) – Christie vetos sports betting bill 

Christie's office announced that he nixed a bill (S2250) that would have allowed New Jersey to circumvent the 1992 federal law that bans sports betting in most states, after New Jersey’s challenges to the law in court failed.  The bill would have repealed the state’s ban on sports betting and made it legal in casinos and at racetracks.

TAKEAWAY:  Atlantic City needs help badly and Christie shot down an opportunity.

 

Maryland Live – On Saturday at 11 p.m., Maryland Live opened a $1 Double Gold million slot machine which requires gamblers to bet $500 per spin for a chance to win the $1 million jackpot.

TAKEAWAY: Maryland Live attempting to generate big media coverage prior to the opening of the Horseshoe casino in two weeks. 

MACRO

Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye

Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.


European Banking Monitor: PIIGS Sovereign CDS Widens

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .

--- 

European Financial CDS - Outside of Banco Espirito Santo, which tightened by 318 bps to 344 bps on the week, swaps were nominally wider across Europe last week (+2 bps). Russia's Sberbank continued to widen (+3 bps to 355 bps) though at a slower pace than in recent weeks.

 

European Banking Monitor: PIIGS Sovereign CDS Widens - chart 1 financials cds vf

 

Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps widened across the board over last week. The usual suspects, Italy, Portugal and Spain, widened by 16, 17 and 9 bps, respectively. Meanwhile, German and US sovereign swaps widened by 1 bp. Japan was a notable mover on the week, widening by 7 bps (+19%) to 43 bps. 

 

European Banking Monitor: PIIGS Sovereign CDS Widens - chart 2 sovereign CDS

 

European Banking Monitor: PIIGS Sovereign CDS Widens - chart 3 sovereign CDS

 

European Banking Monitor: PIIGS Sovereign CDS Widens - chart 4 sovereign CDS

 

Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread was unchanged at 15 bps.

 

European Banking Monitor: PIIGS Sovereign CDS Widens - chart 5 euribor OIS Spread

 

 

Matthew Hedrick

Associate

 

Ben Ryan

Analyst

 

 


Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down

INVESTMENT IDEAS

 

The table below lists our current investment ideas as well as a list of potential ideas we are in the process of evaluating (watch list).  We intend to update this table regularly and will provide detail on any material changes.

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart1

 

EVENTS THIS WEEK

 

8/11/14 DF Earnings Call 9am EST

8/11/14 SYY Earnings Call 10am EST

8/12/14 FLO Earnings Call 8:30am EST

8/14/14 VPCO Earnings Call 10:30am EST

8/15/14 EL Earnings Call 9:30am EST

 

WEEK-OVER-WEEK PERFORMANCE

Consumer Staples rose 0.9% week-over-week versus the broader market (S&P500) at 0.3%.  XLP is up 2.1% year-to-date versus the SPX at 4.5%. XLP is the third worst performing sector in the ytd, ahead of Industrials -0.2% (XLI) and Consumer Discretionary -0.7% (XLY).

 

Positive Divergence:  SAM 6.7%; MNST 6.5%; SMG 5.9%; THS 5.4%; TAP 5.2%

Negative Divergence:  NUS -18.7%; POST -16.7%; IFF -3.4%;  SODA -3.2%; ENR -2.2%

RECENT NOTES 

 

From a quantitative set-up XLP is broken its immediate term TRADE duration and bullish over the intermediate term TREND duration.

 Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart2

 

The Hedgeye U.S. Consumption Model shows 6 of the 12 U.S. Economic Indicators flashing green.

 Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart3

 

We continue to believe that the group is facing numerous headwinds, including:

  • U.S. consumption growth is slowing as inflation rises, in-line with the Macro team’s 1Q14 theme of #InflationAccelerating, Q2 2014 theme of #ConsumerSlowing, and Q3 2014 theme of #Q3 Slowing
  • The economies and currencies of the emerging market – once the sector’s greatest growth engine – remain weak with the prospect of higher inflation in 2014 eroding real growth
  • The sector is loaded with a premium valuation (P/E of 19.2x)
  • Less sector Yield Chasing as Fed continues its tapering program
  • The high frequency Bloomberg weekly U.S. Consumer Comfort Index (rescaled for cosmetic and not component reasons) has not seen any real improvement over the past 6 months, and fell to 36.2 versus 36.3 in the prior week

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart4

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart5

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart6

 

 

QUANTITATIVE SETUP

 

In the charts below we look at the largest companies by market cap in the Consumer Staples space from a quantitative perspective.

 

BUD – bearish TREND resistance = 110.04

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart7

 

DEO – bearish TREND resistance = 125.48

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart8

 

KO – bearish TREND resistance = 40.66

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart9

 

PEP – bullish TREND support = 87.71

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart10

 

GIS – bearish TREND resistance = 52.68

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart11

 

MDLZ – bearish TREND resistance = 37.03

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart12

 

KMB – bearish TREND resistance = 109.95

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart13

 

PG – bullish TREND support = 79.40

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart14

 

MO – bullish TREND support = 40.59

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart15

 

PM – bearish TREND resistance = 84.78

Just Charts – Earnings Season Winding Down - chart16

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Matt Hedrick

Associate

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst


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