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    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Investment Ideas

The table below lists our Investment Ideas as well as our Watch List -- a list of potential ideas that we are in the process of evaluating.  We intend to update this table regularly and will provide detail on any material changes.

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart1

Recent Notes

07/28/14 Monday Mashup: MCD, YUM and More

07/28/14 MCD: McLibel 2.0?

07/29/14 DRI: Light Gets In

07/31/14 YUM: Warning Shots Fired

08/04/14 Monday Mashup: Full Slate of Earnings

08/04/14 Invite: New Best Idea

Events This Week

Wednesday, August 13th

  • NDLS earnings call 4:30pm EST
  • FRSH earnings call 5:00pm EST

Thursday, August 14th

  • RRGB earnings call 10:00am EST

Chart of the Day

Got pricing power?  Chipotle does.  Traffic growth has more than doubled price growth over the past 5 years.

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart2

Recent News Flow

Monday, August 4th

  • DPZ upgraded to buy at Miller Tabak with an $81 PT.
  • JACK announced Sharon John will join the company's board of directors.  John has over 25 years of retail marketing, branding and executive management experience in both the public and private sectors.
  • MCD noted that China, Japan and certain other markets have been severely impacted following food safety issues.
  • PNRA CFO Roger Matthews resigned.  William Moreton, Panera's current Executive Vice Chairman, will serve as Interim CFO until a successor is found.
  • PLKI announced the resignation of the company's U.S. President, Ralph Bower.

Tuesday, August 5th

  • CAKE announced its newest restaurant opening in Trumbull, CT at the Westfield Trumbull Mall.

Wednesday, August 6th

  • FRGI announced it will consolidate all of its food distribution with Performance Food Group.
  • THI declared a $0.32 dividend payable to shareholders of record as of August 18th, 2014.
  • BOBE released an investor presentation to provide their take on a series of "misleading" statements made by Sandell Asset Management.
  • JACK debuted three new breakfast items, featuring two new breakfast burritos and croissant donuts.

Thursday, August 7th

  • THI was upgraded to outperform at BMO Capital.
  • SONC announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 as well as a $105 million share repurchase program for FY15.

Friday, August 8th

  • DRI Activist Starboard Value increased its stake in Darden from 8.0% to 8.8%.
  • CMG was downgraded to neutral at Longbow Research.

Sector Performance

The XLY (+1.1%) outperformed the SPX (+0.3%).  On average, casual dining stocks (-0.1%) underperformed and quick service stocks (+1.6%) outperformed the XLY Index.

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart3

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart4

XLY Quantitative Setup

From a quantitative perspective, the sector turned bearish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart5

Casual Dining Restaurants


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Quick Service Restaurants


Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart8

Monday Mashup: NDLS, RRGB On Tap - chart9

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Fred Masotta

Analyst