The Russell 2000 continues to struggle.
Tickers: CZR, WYNN, H, CCL, NCLH
8156:HK – China Vanguard Group Ltd is paying RMB17.5 million (US$2.8 million) for an electronic marketing and administrative platform, Trans Pacific Associates Ltd. Trans Pacific, a British Virgin Islands holding company, provides interactive electronic marketing and administrative services to the lottery industry in mainland China – including the China Welfare Lottery Center and the China Sports Lottery Administration Center.
Separately, China Vanguard announced that an indirect non-wholly owned subsidiary had entered into a cooperative agreement with the Shandong Province Sports Lottery Administration Center. The deal covers provision of “lottery solution, sales distribution and other related services”. The company will be paid a percentage of total sales generated. Shandong province recorded RMB12.24 billion of Sports Lottery sales in 2013, ranking second amongst all provinces in mainland china, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.5%.
Takeaway: A lot of growth in China lottery play.
CZR – The Horseshoe Casino on Russell Street in Baltimore is readying for its opening on August 26. The casino is located a few blocks from M&T Bank Stadium, and will have an outdoor tailgating area that will be used before Ravens games. The casino is expected to be ready for a pair of controlled demonstrations, on Monday, August 18, and Thursday, August 21, where invited guests will be permitted to gamble in the casino, with the proceeds going to charity. The benefiting charities have yet to be announced.
Takeaway: On schedule
WYNN – There’s a state bond bill sitting on Gov. Deval Patrick’s desk that will provide $50 million to clean up the old Monsanto site in Everett if Wynn can’t build a resort-style casino on the property. Revere residents will get the change to argue their points before the last public commission meeting on Monday, the day prior to Everett's final open meeting. The Massachusetts Gaming Commission will make its final decision on the license by September 12.
Takeaway: Stay tuned.
H – a wholly owned Hyatt subsidiary has completed its acquisition of the 100% of the 210-room Park Hyatt New York for approximately $390 million, inclusive of pre-opening and related costs. Park Hyatt New York is expected to open later this month.
Takeaway: As discussed during the company's recent earnings call.
CCL/NCLH (kiroTV) – two cruise ships return to Seattle with different issues
The Norwegian Pearl was turned around because of a passenger’s medical emergency. The Grand Princess experienced a problem with an engine and returned to sit at Pier 91 for almost four hours.
Delays, delays, delays –
Takeaway: It's not just Macau/Philippines encountering new project delays.
South Korea Gaming Expansion – (Reuters) Paradise City, a Paradise Co Ltd and Sega Sammy Holdings, joint project near South Korea's main Incheon airport should open in Q1 2017. Groundbreaking is planned for October. The joint venture plans to open the first phase of the resort with casino, hotel, shopping, entertainment and convention facilities, at a cost of about 1 trillion won. The phase will include 120 tables, 400 slot machines and 300 electronic gaming tables, small by the standards of mega-resorts elsewhere. Paradise City will also rely on junket operators to bring in 20-30 percent of its business.
Takeaway: Little impact overall as long as S Korea does not ease the local play ban
Atlantic City New Casino Development – Discussions begin today on plans to build an 850-room casino-hotel and 3,000-space parking garage in the city’s Chelsea District. A.C. Gateway Owner LLC, which is a joint project of Goldman Sachs Mortgage Co. and the real estate investment fund Arefin US Investment LLC, has revived a waterfront-development permit (called a CAFRA permit, for the Coastal Area Facility Review Act) which was originally opened when Hard Rock International attempted a development on the same parcel. The plan at issue calls for phased construction of a casino on land bounded by Pacific Avenue, Hartford Avenue, the Boardwalk and Roosevelt Avenue. A garage would be built on an adjacent tract, near O’Donnell Memorial Park.
Takeaway: We doubt such a new development will see the light of day.
Revel Proceedings – The bankruptcy court overseeing the Chapter 11 proceeding of Revel AC Inc. laid out the following timeline:
July 19: Letters of intent to bid were due
August 4: qualified bids submitted
August 7: an auction, if require
August 8: sale hearing according to a court order.
The auction would take place at the New York offices of the company’s counsel, White & Case, and the sale hearing at bankruptcy court in Camden, N.J.
Takeaway: Expect news very soon.
Trump Atlantic City – Donald Trump filed a lawsuit on Tuesday demanding that his name be stripped from the two Atlantic City casinos, the Trump Plaza and the Trump Taj Maha as Mr. Trump has not been involved in their operations for more than five years. Trump's lawsuit, filed in state Superior Court in Atlantic County, seeks a court order directing Trump Entertainment Resorts to immediately cure what it terms a breach of Trump's licensing agreement with the company or remove his name from the casinos and the company itself. Trump Plaza is set to close on September 16, 2014.
Takeaway: Mr. Trump attempting to disassociate from the demise of Atlantic City and the properties which bear the Trump name.
Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation. Following a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye
Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive.
Takeaway: We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.
This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.
Takeaway: Kevin Durant leaving Nike for UnderArmour is a lot for UA to handle. It validates our endorsement note from last night.
EVENTS TO WATCH
TUMI - Earnings Call: 8:30am
HSNI - Earnings Call: 9:00am
ADS - Earnings Call: 9:00am
UA, NKE - NBA star Kevin Durant bails on Nike as Under Armour prepares huge offer
Takeaway: We'll play along with the conspiracy theory on this one as it pairs nicely with the note we published last night looking at endorsement obligations for both NKE and UA (Link - CLICK HERE). If the KD deal closes with UA at the reported $30mil per, the company would have to generate an incremental ~$275mm in sales to make that margin accretive. Not outside of the realm of possibility, but consider two things. 1) In 2013 the KD grossed $175mm, 2nd only to the Lebron at $300mm. 2) That $275mm is a 75% premium to what UA has done in all of footwear over the past 12mnths. At NKE that's just 1.1%. It may be a brand builder for the company, but without a Nike-esque product and marketing engine behind KD, it's tough to see this benefiting margins in the short term.
FDO, DG, DLTR - Dollar General Said to Explore Family Dollar Bid
Takeaway: We could argue that a combined FDO/DG may generate more cost efficiencies on the product side due to the overlap in merchandise, and subsequent buying power with vendors. In addition, the real estate profile is more complementary for DG/FDO than many might initially think. That said, the reason the real estate is complementary is that DG has -- for the most part -- very good locations, while FDO's leaves much to be desired. We'd have to argue that synergies would be considerably better here than with DLTR in order to justify paying more than the 11x EBITDA that's already in play.
URBN - Unveils Android App
Takeaway: Interesting that this only available now with dot.com such a big part of URBN's business accounting for about 26% of net sales. We hear so much about the importance of mobile, but put into context we think we can explain why this was so low on the priority list. Dot.com represents about 6% of total retail sales. Mobile and tablets account for almost 20% of that (or 1.1% of total retail sales). 80% of that comes from Apple devices, and only 20% from Android (.2% of total retail sales).
JCP - J.C. Penney opens its first-ever store in Brooklyn on Aug. 29
UA - Former president of ESPN joins Under Armour board
TGT - Target Opens Tech Outpost In Sunnyvale
GNC - GNC Holdings, Inc. Names Michael G. Archbold CEO
Takeaway: The MBA Purchase Applications Index sits at 170 3QTD, down -4.8% QoQ and the lowest quarterly reading since 3Q 1995
Our Hedgeye Housing Compendium table (below) aspires to present the state of the housing market in a visually-friendly format that takes about 30 seconds to consume.
*Note - to maintain cross-metric comparability, the purchase applications index shown in the table below represents the monthly average as opposed to the most recent weekly data point.
Today's Focus: MBA Mortgage Applications
The Mortgage Bankers Association today released its weekly mortgage applications survey data for the week ended August 1st.
The Composite index rose +1.6% WoW. However, refi activity was the singular source of strength (+3.8% WoW) as Purchase demand slide -1.3% sequentially.
Summarily, the high frequency housing data continues to corroborate the sea of red currently blanketing our housing compendium. As we’ve highlighted repeatedly, we’re inclined to remain bearish on the housing complex until the slope of HPI deceleration inflects.
About MBA Mortgage Applications:
The Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s mortgage applications index covers more than 75% of mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. It does not include loans delivered through wholesale broker and correspondent channels. The MBA mortgage purchase applications index is considered a leading indicator of single-family home sales and construction. Moreover, it is the only housing index that is released on a weekly basis.
The MBA Purchase Apps index is released every Wednesday morning at 7 am EST.
Joshua Steiner, CFA
Christian B. Drake
Our intermediate-term TREND signals broke over a month ago, and now you’re seeing the draw-down percentages add up. Italy is -13% since its June top and Germany (DAX) has had a -10% drop since topping July 3rd (a week before the Russell did).
The front month VIX is +63.5% since the Q2 bounce failed to make higher-highs (Russell 2000). Our TREND breakout line is 11.94, so what’s born out of this scenario is wider risk ranges (our 3-day range for the SPX is now over 100 points – last month it was 30-35 wide).
UST 10YR should test fresh year-to-date lows here as Yield Spread (10yr minus 2yr) compresses to +199bps wide (its year-to-date lows). These are clean cut #Q3Slowing signals in our model, so we’re sticking with the Long Bond as our best asset allocation idea.
|FIXED INCOME||28%||INTL CURRENCIES||10%|
Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration. The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month. Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements. When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner. With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds. Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.
Construction activity remains cyclically depressed, but has likely begun the long process of recovery. A large multi-year rebound in construction should provide a tailwind to OC shares that the market appears to be underestimating. Both residential and nonresidential construction in the U.S. would need to roughly double to reach post-war demographic norms. As credit returns to the market and government funded construction begins to rebound, construction markets should make steady gains in coming years, quarterly weather aside, supporting OC’s revenue and capacity utilization.
Legg Mason reported its month ending asset-under-management for April at the beginning of the week with a very positive result in its fixed income segment. The firm cited “significant” bond inflows for the month which we calculated to be over $2.3 billion. To contextualize this inflow amount we note that the entire U.S. mutual fund industry had total bond fund inflows of just $8.4 billion in April according to the Investment Company Institute, which provides an indication of the strong win rate for Legg alone last month. We also point out on a forward looking basis that the emerging trends in the mutual fund marketplace are starting to favor fixed income which should translate into accelerating positive trends at leading bond fund managers. Fixed income inflow is outpacing equities thus far in the second quarter of 2014 for the first time in 9 months which reflects the emerging defensive nature of global markets which is a good environment for leading fixed income houses including Legg Mason.
HOUSING: MBA purchase app index down another -1.3% this wk - horrendous trend, on the margin $ITB -- @KeithMcCullough
We work to become, not to acquire.
The VIX has ripped +63.5% from the time we made our #VolatilityAsymmetry slide deck presentation.
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