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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 1, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 41 points or 0.35% downside to 1924 and 1.78% upside to 1965.

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.05 from 2.03
  • VIX  closed at 16.95 1 day percent change of 27.16%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, July, est. 230k (prior 288k)
  • Unemployment Rate, July, est. 6.1% (prior 6.1%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Income, June, est. 0.4% (prior 0.4%)
  • Personal Spending, June, est. 0.4% (prior 0.2%)
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, July, est. 56.5 (prior 56.3)
  • 9:55am: University of Michigan Confidence, July final, est. 81.7 (prior 81.3)
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, July, est. 56 (prior 55.3)
  • 10am: Construction Spending m/m, June, est. 0.5% (prior 0.1%)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • Republic of Congo President Denis Sassou-Nguesso speaks about stability, security, oil investments in central Africa region
    • 9am: House Republicans meeting at 9am to discuss border plan
    • 2pm: DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz speaks at Natl Assn of Black Journalists conference in Boston
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Farmers on Immigration; Koch-Funded Groups

 

WHAT TO WATCH

  • U.S. employers may have added 230,000 workers last month
  • Ford, GM, others report U.S. auto sales; SAAR may be 16.7m
  • Argentina doesn’t oppose deal sought by JPMorgan, other banks
  • Argentina outlook revised to negative at Moody’s
  • ICE said to seek mortgage role through talks with data service
  • China HSBC PMI jumps to highest in 2 yrs
  • Societe Generale 2Q net rises 7.8% as loan-loss provisions fall
  • RBS trims lending ties with Russia
  • No-exit strategy may be Fed’s burden as record stimulus unwinds
  • Lions Gate to refile proxy after underreporting Feltheimer’s pay
  • Cisco localizes production in Russia amid tensions: Kommersant
  • Rosneft closes deal for Weatherford assets in Venezuela, Russia
  • ArcelorMittal increases European, U.S. steel demand forecast
  • Macau July casino rev. falls 3.6%, beats est.
  • Israel, Hamas stop Gaza fighting as 3-day truce begins
  • Flights over Iraq restricted by FAA due to armed conflict

AM EARNS

    • Allete (ALE) 8:30am, $0.44
    • American Axle & Mfg (AXL) 8am, $0.72
    • Bell Aliant (BA CN) 6am, C$0.41
    • Burger King (BKW) 7am, $0.23
    • Calpine (CPN) 6am, $(0.02)
    • Catamaran (CCT CN) 6am, $0.50
    • CBOE (CBOE) 7:30am, $0.50
    • Chevron (CVX) 8:30am, $2.63 - Preview
    • Clorox (CLX) 8:30am, $1.35 - Preview
    • Enbridge (ENB CN) 7am, C$0.39 - Preview
    • Exelis (XLS) 6:30am, $0.35
    • Fortis (FTS CN) 7am, C$0.28
    • Genesee & Wyoming (GWR) 6am, $1.11
    • Hilton Worldwide (HLT) 6am, $0.19
    • ImmunoGen (IMGN) 6:30am, $(0.34)
    • PBF Energy (PBF) 7am, $0.65
    • Procter & Gamble (PG) 7am, $0.91 - Preview
    • Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) 7:30am, $0.68
    • Targa Resources (TRGP) 7:17am, $0.63
    • Telephone & Data Systems (TDS) 7:56am, $(0.05)
    • United States Cellular (USM) 7:57am, $(0.06)
    • WisdomTree (WETF) 7am, $0.07

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • WTI Heads for Biggest Weekly Decline in 7 Months; Brent Steady
  • Gold Trades Near Six-Week Low Before U.S. Employment Report
  • Copper Set for Weekly Drop on Speculation U.S. to Curb Stimulus
  • Twin Corn Ears Push U.S. Yields to Bin-Busting Crop: Commodities
  • Arabica Coffee Extends-Bull Market Run as White Sugar Declines
  • Sugar Seen Needing Further Drop to Attract Demand Amid Glut
  • Milling Wheat Slides to Four-Year Low in Paris on Rising Supply
  • AngloGold Sees More Mine Sales as Producers Chase Margin Gains
  • WTI Crude Seen Rising in Survey on U.S. Economic Growth
  • Rubber Sales From Vietnam Set for First Drop Since ’08 on China
  • U.K. Winter Power Prices Advance After SSE Fire in England
  • Shipping Rates Suffer as China Hydro Curbs Coal Imports: Freight
  • As One Kurdish Crude Tanker Waits, Another Heads to New Jersey
  • Europe Set for Hottest Summer Since 2006 as Warm August Seen
  • Steel Rebar Has First Weekly Advance in Three on China PMI

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

The Hedgeye Macro Team