TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 1, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 41 points or 0.35% downside to 1924 and 1.78% upside to 1965.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 2.05 from 2.03
- VIX closed at 16.95 1 day percent change of 27.16%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, July, est. 230k (prior 288k)
- Unemployment Rate, July, est. 6.1% (prior 6.1%)
- 8:30am: Personal Income, June, est. 0.4% (prior 0.4%)
- Personal Spending, June, est. 0.4% (prior 0.2%)
- 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, July, est. 56.5 (prior 56.3)
- 9:55am: University of Michigan Confidence, July final, est. 81.7 (prior 81.3)
- 10am: ISM Manufacturing, July, est. 56 (prior 55.3)
- 10am: Construction Spending m/m, June, est. 0.5% (prior 0.1%)
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
GOVERNMENT:
- Republic of Congo President Denis Sassou-Nguesso speaks about stability, security, oil investments in central Africa region
- 9am: House Republicans meeting at 9am to discuss border plan
- 2pm: DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz speaks at Natl Assn of Black Journalists conference in Boston
- U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Farmers on Immigration; Koch-Funded Groups
WHAT TO WATCH
- U.S. employers may have added 230,000 workers last month
- Ford, GM, others report U.S. auto sales; SAAR may be 16.7m
- Argentina doesn’t oppose deal sought by JPMorgan, other banks
- Argentina outlook revised to negative at Moody’s
- ICE said to seek mortgage role through talks with data service
- China HSBC PMI jumps to highest in 2 yrs
- Societe Generale 2Q net rises 7.8% as loan-loss provisions fall
- RBS trims lending ties with Russia
- No-exit strategy may be Fed’s burden as record stimulus unwinds
- Lions Gate to refile proxy after underreporting Feltheimer’s pay
- Cisco localizes production in Russia amid tensions: Kommersant
- Rosneft closes deal for Weatherford assets in Venezuela, Russia
- ArcelorMittal increases European, U.S. steel demand forecast
- Macau July casino rev. falls 3.6%, beats est.
- Israel, Hamas stop Gaza fighting as 3-day truce begins
- Flights over Iraq restricted by FAA due to armed conflict
AM EARNS
- Allete (ALE) 8:30am, $0.44
- American Axle & Mfg (AXL) 8am, $0.72
- Bell Aliant (BA CN) 6am, C$0.41
- Burger King (BKW) 7am, $0.23
- Calpine (CPN) 6am, $(0.02)
- Catamaran (CCT CN) 6am, $0.50
- CBOE (CBOE) 7:30am, $0.50
- Chevron (CVX) 8:30am, $2.63 - Preview
- Clorox (CLX) 8:30am, $1.35 - Preview
- Enbridge (ENB CN) 7am, C$0.39 - Preview
- Exelis (XLS) 6:30am, $0.35
- Fortis (FTS CN) 7am, C$0.28
- Genesee & Wyoming (GWR) 6am, $1.11
- Hilton Worldwide (HLT) 6am, $0.19
- ImmunoGen (IMGN) 6:30am, $(0.34)
- PBF Energy (PBF) 7am, $0.65
- Procter & Gamble (PG) 7am, $0.91 - Preview
- Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) 7:30am, $0.68
- Targa Resources (TRGP) 7:17am, $0.63
- Telephone & Data Systems (TDS) 7:56am, $(0.05)
- United States Cellular (USM) 7:57am, $(0.06)
- WisdomTree (WETF) 7am, $0.07
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- WTI Heads for Biggest Weekly Decline in 7 Months; Brent Steady
- Gold Trades Near Six-Week Low Before U.S. Employment Report
- Copper Set for Weekly Drop on Speculation U.S. to Curb Stimulus
- Twin Corn Ears Push U.S. Yields to Bin-Busting Crop: Commodities
- Arabica Coffee Extends-Bull Market Run as White Sugar Declines
- Sugar Seen Needing Further Drop to Attract Demand Amid Glut
- Milling Wheat Slides to Four-Year Low in Paris on Rising Supply
- AngloGold Sees More Mine Sales as Producers Chase Margin Gains
- WTI Crude Seen Rising in Survey on U.S. Economic Growth
- Rubber Sales From Vietnam Set for First Drop Since ’08 on China
- U.K. Winter Power Prices Advance After SSE Fire in England
- Shipping Rates Suffer as China Hydro Curbs Coal Imports: Freight
- As One Kurdish Crude Tanker Waits, Another Heads to New Jersey
- Europe Set for Hottest Summer Since 2006 as Warm August Seen
- Steel Rebar Has First Weekly Advance in Three on China PMI
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team