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A Castle-in-the-Air

This note was originally published at 8am on July 02, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Dreams of castles in the air, of getting rich quick, do play a role – at times a dominant one – in determining actual stock prices.”

-Burton G. Malkiel

 

For the past several days, I’ve been reading a gem of a book recommended by my colleague, Howard Penney.  Malkiel’s A Random Walk Down Wall Street is a timeless, thought provoking piece that most curious investors would enjoy reading poolside on a beautiful summer day.  I certainly did.  After all, restaurant research isn’t limited to cheeseburgers and fries.  In fact, a large part of our job pertains to understanding both human and market psychology.  The castle-in-the-air theory, which concentrates on the psychic values of investors, serves as a constant reminder of this fact. 

 

For those unfamiliar with its origin, the castle-in-the-air theory was popularized by John Maynard Keynes in 1936.  While we tend to disagree with Keynes’ and his disciples on a number of economic issues, the notion that stocks trade off of mass psychology is widely appealing.  Accordingly, some investors attempt to front run this onslaught of groupthink, not by identifying mispriced stocks, but rather by identifying stocks that are likely to become Wall Street’s next darling.  All told, this can be a profitable strategy – until it’s not.  

 

A Castle-in-the-Air - castle

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind...

 

We believe we’ve identified one of Wall Street’s current darlings and recently added it to the Hedgeye Best Ideas list as a short.  Del Frisco’s Restaurant Group (DFRG) owns and operates three distinctly different high-end steak chains.  After coming public in July 2012, the stock has gained over 114%; quite impressive, by any measure.  More importantly, however, we believe cheerleading analysts and the subsequent madness of the crowd have propelled the stock during this time.  Is it reasonable to call a company whose adjusted EPS declined 7% in 2013 one of the greatest growth stories in the restaurant industry?  We think not. 

 

As Malkiel goes on to say:

 

“Beware of very high multiple stocks in which future growth is already discounted, if growth doesn’t materialize, losses are doubly heavy – both the earnings and the multiples drop.”

 

Beware indeed.


The truth is, the company currently screens as one of the most expensive stocks on both a Price-to-Sales and EV-to-EBITDA basis in the casual dining industry.  While we’re not insinuating DFRG is the beneficiary of a “get-rich quick speculative binge,” we are confident the stock is severely dislocated from its intrinsic value.

 

Part of the hype has been driven by the company’s positioning within the restaurant industry.  Del Frisco’s caters to the high-end consumer; a cohort that the stock market would suggest is doing quite well.  While this may be true, we believe the high-end consumer has been slowing on the margin as inflation in the things that matter (food, energy, rent, etc.) continues to accelerate.  Contrary to popular belief, high-end consumers can feel the pinch too and two-year trends at the company’s hallmark concept, Del Frisco’s Double Eagle Steakhouse, would suggest the same. 

 

Admittedly, the Double Eagle Steakhouse, though slowing, is a healthy concept.  But it’s only 25% of the overall portfolio.  The other 75% consists of a fundamentally broken concept (Sullivan’s) and an unproven growth concept (Grille).  Naturally, the Street is discounting an immediate turnaround at Sullivan’s and a flawless rollout of the Grille, neither of which we see materializing.  In fact, we continue to expect restaurant level and operating margin deterioration throughout 2014.  This has less to do with all-time high beef prices (32.8% of Del Frisco’s 2013 cost of sales) and the recent wave of minimum wage increases (25% of Del Frisco’s restaurants have exposure), than it does with the fact that the company is systematically growing at lower margins and, consequently, returns.

 

More broadly, there are a number of red flags that the Street is unwilling to acknowledge right now including decelerating same-store sales and traffic trends, declining margins, declining returns, increasing cost pressures, expensive operating leases, peak valuation, positive sentiment and high expectations.  We simply refuse to give the company credit for what it has not proven and while we can’t hit on all the minutiae of our thesis in this note, we do have a 67-page slide deck that does precisely that (email sales@hedgeye.com for more info).  In short, our sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests significant downside.

 

You can delay gravity, but you can’t deny it.  Needless to say, we don’t expect this particular castle-in-the-air to stay there much longer.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.50-2.59%

SPX 1949-1976

RUT 1169-1208

VIX 10.61-12.74

Brent Oil 111.51-115.43

Gold 1310-1330 

 

Stay grounded,

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst

 

A Castle-in-the-Air - new

 


Today 11am EST - Expert E-Cig "Speaker Series" - Are Vaporizers Stealing Share from Big Tobacco?

Join us today at 11am EST as we continue our Speaker Series on e-cigarettes and e-vapor with John J. Wiesehan, Jr., CEO of the Charlotte based company, Ballantyne Brands, LLC.

 

Ballantyne Brands is a leading private manufacturer with the third largest market share in the U.S. (in the xAOC channel) with such e-cig brands as Mistic and Neo and personal vaporizer Haus.

 

CALL OBJECTIVE 

Is the consumer switching to an alternative vaping product, and why?  Mr. Wiesehan, Jr. will offer his latest insights and expertise to Hedgeye's ongoing research on the e-cigarette/e-vapor category.

 

 KEY CALL TOPICS WILL INCLUDE

  • Industry developments and trends
  • How the FDA's proposed regulations stands to impact the industry
  • Ballantyne Brands product offering versus Big Tobacco's
  • What does future technology look like

 

KEY TICKERS

LO, MO, PM, RAI, ECIG, VPCO, BTI

 

ABOUT JOHN J. WIESEHAN, JR.  

John J. Wiesehan, Jr. is currently the CEO of Ballantyne Brands, LLC. A graduate of Lindenwood University in Saint Charles, Missouri, John spent time at General Electric as the Worldwide Operations Manager. From General Electric, he moved to Woods Industries as Vice President in the Sales and Marketing sector.  In October 2012, John joined Ballantyne Brands, LLC located in North Carolina and became CEO.

 

CALL DETAILS

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 544867#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (Slides will download one hour prior to the start of the call)

For more information please email


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 16, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 0.88% downside to 1956 and 0.59% upside to 1985.                                    

                                                                                          

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1A

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.07 from 2.07
  • VIX closed at 11.96 1 day percent change of 1.18%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 6am: ECB publishes report on international role of euro
  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week of July 11 (prior 1.9%)
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand, m/m, June, est. 0.2% (prior -0.2%)
  • 9am: Net Long-Term TIC Flows, May, est. $25b (prior -$24.2b)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Prod., m/m, June, est. 0.3% (prior 0.6%)
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, July, est. 50 (prior 49)
  • 10am: Fed’s Yellen gives semi-annual testimony to House cmte
  • 10am: Bank of Canada seen maintaining 1% benchmk interest rate
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 12pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Los Angeles
  • 2pm: Fed releases Beige Book

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • U.S. House passes short-term fix for Highway Trust Fund
    • Hillary Clinton doesn’t comment on 2016 bid on Daily Show
    • 9:30am: Senate Commerce, Armed Services Cmtes hold joint hearing on domestic space access
    • 10am: House Rules Cmte considers resolution allowing House of Representatives to sue President Obama
    • 10am: House Budget Cmte hears from CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf on long-term budget outlook
    • 10am: Senate Banking subcmte holds “What Makes a Bank Systemically Important?” hearing
    • 10am: Senate Veterans Affairs Cmte hears from acting VA Secretary Sloan Gibson on state of VA health care
    • 11:15am: Sens. Blumenthal, D-Conn., Casey, D-Pa., hold news conf. to introduce bill that would “make it a crime for a corporate officer to knowingly conceal the fact that a corporate action or product poses a danger of death or serious physical injury to consumers and workers”
    • 1:15pm: Reps. Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., Murphy, R-Pa., hold conf. call on H.R. 3717, a bill that would address “the need to fix our nation’s broken health system”

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Bipartisan bill targets FSOC secrecy; Treasury concerned
  • Obama administration seeks swift curb on offshore tax deals
  • IBM, Apple to cooperate on business solutions software
  • IGT to be bought by GTech for $18.25/share
  • Uber valuation may exceed $200b: Google Ventures head
  • Intel CEO sees evidence of renewed interest in consumer PC
  • Alibaba valued at as much as $150b in private trades: WSJ
  • Co. said likely to sell more shares in IPO as Yahoo holds
  • 3M to buy Sumitomo Electric’s stake in venture for $885m
  • Microsoft to cut 1,000 Finnish jobs: Helsingin Sanomat
  • U.S. oil export ban won’t be lifted this year: Congressman
  • Amazon Web Services expects to cut prices further: Fortune
  • Tesla Model III may have range of >200 miles: Auto Express
  • Model S to be focus of hacking contest in Beijing
  • Jet makers slim engine choices; cut airline leverage: WSJ
  • F-35 jets won’t fly to Farnborough due to U.S. restrictions
  • GM withheld information on fatal crashes: NYT cites documents

 

AM EARNS:

    • Abbott Laboratories (ABT) 7:44am, $0.51 - Preview
    • Bank of America (BAC) 7am, $0.29 - Preview
    • BlackRock (BLK) 6:30am, $4.46
    • Charles Schwab (SCHW) 8:45am, $0.22
    • First Republic Bank (FRC) 7am, $0.76
    • iGATE (IGTE) 6:35am, $0.47
    • MGIC Investment (MTG) 7am, $0.14
    • Northern Trust (NTRS) 7:30am, $0.84
    • PNC Financial (PNC) 6:30am, $1.78
    • St Jude Medical (STJ) 7:30am, $1.00 - Preview
    • Textron (TXT) 6:30am, $0.46 - Preview
    • US Bancorp (USB) 7:15am, $0.77

 

PM EARNS:

    • East West Bancorp (EWBC) 5:50pm, $0.58
    • eBay (EBAY) 4:15pm, $0.68 - Preview
    • Kinder Morgan (KMI) 4:05pm, $0.30
    • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) 4:01pm, $0.90
    • Plexus (PLXS) 4pm, $0.72
    • SanDisk (SNDK) 4:05pm, $1.39
    • Select Comfort (SCSS) 4:01pm, $0.14
    • United Rentals (URI) 4:15pm, $1.46
    • Yum! Brands (YUM) 4:15pm, $0.73 - Preview

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Goldman Forecasts Lower Commodity Prices as Super-Cycle Ends
  • WTI Rises From Two-Month Low on Cushing Supply; Brent Recovers
  • Gold Fixing Banks Said to Propose Changes to Pricing Process
  • Trafigura Targets Indian Manufacturers With Online Metals Store
  • China Banks Said to Have $3.2 Billion Exposure in Qingdao Probe
  • Gold Trades Near 3-Week Low as Dollar Weighed With Middle East
  • Japan Nuclear Safety Report Seen Having ‘Marginal’ Impact on LNG
  • Zinc Trades Near 35-Month High as China’s Growth Tops Estimates
  • European Commission Prolongs Deadline for Decision on Opal Pipe
  • Raw-Sugar Spread Seen Widening on Brazil to India Supply Risks
  • UBS Commodity Analyst Tom Price Leaves Bank, Spokeswoman Says
  • European Naphtha Shipments to Asia to Rise in July From June
  • Carbon Price Quadrupling Has Same Impact on U.K. as 32% Oil Gain
  • Indonesia Says Could Terminate Newmont Unit’s Contract
  • Largest Lithium Deal Spurred by Smartphones, Teslas: Commodities

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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SINGAPORE SAYS, “GLOBAL GROWTH WILL SLOW IN 3Q”

Takeaway: A recent string of ratty growth data out of Singapore calls for a likely mean reversion in the pace of global growth in 3Q14.

Yesterday night Singapore released its advance estimate for 2Q14 real GDP. That data showed the ever-volatile Singaporean economy more than cut in half from a rate of change perspective:

 

  • Real GDP YoY:+2.1% from +4.7% prior vs. a Bloomberg consensus estimate of +3.1%
    • Manufacturing: +0.2% from +9.9% prior
    • Construction: +5% from +6.4% prior
    • Services: +2.8% from +3.9% prior
  • Real GDP QoQ SAAR:-0.8% from +1.6% prior vs. a Bloomberg consensus estimate of +2.4%
    • Manufacturing: -19.4% from +12.2% prior
    • Construction: +2.6% from -0.5% prior
    • Services: +5.2% from -1.4% prior 

 

Two things stand out most to us:

 

  1. Consensus being way off on their estimates
  2. The disaster that is manufacturing growth in Singapore

 

While both inputs can be readily dismissed by a Consensus Macro growth bull (#1 because Singaporean growth is volatile and therefore difficult to forecast and #2 because of the small size of the Singaporean economy ($296B), a handful of large multinational corporations can have an outsized impact on Singaporean production), we would be remiss to do anything but interpret them at face value.

 

Why? Because Singapore is the arguably world’s most open economy from an international trade perspective. Specifically:

 

  • Singapore is home to the world’s second-most trafficked container port behind Shanghai, handling some 31,650 TEUs on an annual basis, per the most recently available data (2012);
  • An export/GDP ratio of 191% makes Singapore the second-most export-reliant growth model in the world after Hong Kong; and
  • Singapore’s primary export destinations are very balanced from a market share perspective: Malaysia (12.3%), Hong Kong (10.9%), China (10.8%), Indonesia (10.6%), US (5.5%), Japan (4.6%), Australia (4.2%), and South Korea (4%) round out the top eight. This is in stark contrast to the concentration seen in Hong Kong exports, where China accounts for 57.7% of the total.

 

It’s should then come as no surprise that the slope of Singaporean growth tracks the slope of global growth quite well (i.e. these two time series exhibit a high degree of cointegration). At worst, Singapore’s high-frequency growth data should be viewed as a real-time read on the marginal state of the global economy.

 

SINGAPORE SAYS, “GLOBAL GROWTH WILL SLOW IN 3Q” - 1

 

As such, with Singaporean economic growth moderating so sharply in 2Q14, it’s reasonable to assume that global growth indicators will start to mean revert lower from what are incredibly stretched levels on a historical basis.

 

SINGAPORE SAYS, “GLOBAL GROWTH WILL SLOW IN 3Q” - MANUFACTURING PMI

 

SINGAPORE SAYS, “GLOBAL GROWTH WILL SLOW IN 3Q” - SERVICES PMI

 

SINGAPORE SAYS, “GLOBAL GROWTH WILL SLOW IN 3Q” - COMPOSITE PMI

 

Quickly delving back into Singapore, we see that the forward-looking components to the SIPMM PMI survey are all decelerating on a trend basis, while inventories, imports and supplier delivery times (i.e. anything that might indicate the need to accelerate or decelerate production) is accelerating on a trend basis. In the context of crashing export growth, these signals do not bode well for the Singaporean economy’s ability to ‘comp’ difficult compares in 2H14.

 

SINGAPORE SAYS, “GLOBAL GROWTH WILL SLOW IN 3Q” - Singapore High Frequency GIP Data Monitor

 

SINGAPORE SAYS, “GLOBAL GROWTH WILL SLOW IN 3Q” - SINGAPORE

 

If we knew nothing else about Singapore, we’d short it on those factors alone. Layer on an outlook for continued tight monetary policy (i.e. export growth-eroding SGD strength) amid a dramatic acceleration in inflation and a now-contracting, formerly-bubbly property market, and we are left with a tasty cocktail on the short side of Asian equities for 2H14.

 

SINGAPORE SAYS, “GLOBAL GROWTH WILL SLOW IN 3Q” - CPI

 

SINGAPORE SAYS, “GLOBAL GROWTH WILL SLOW IN 3Q” - 8

 

Global growth bears: prepare to drop the anchor!

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team


REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON JAPAN

Takeaway: We reiterate our call of not having a high-conviction call on Japan here amid a convoluted globally-interconnected monetary policy outlook.

When we last published our extended thoughts on Japan, we openly debated the outlook for the “Abenomics Trade” (i.e. SHORT Japanese yen + LONG Japanese equities) with respect to the intermediate term. To recap the pros and cons of allocating capital to this investment strategy:

 

  • A likely transition from Quad #3 (i.e. growth slowing as inflation accelerates) in 2Q14 to Quad #1 (i.e. growth accelerating as inflation decelerates) in 3Q14
  • A re-risking of the GPIF portfolio
  • Favorable micro tailwinds
  • Abe’s “Third Arrow” is more talk; less walk
  • Easier Fed + Japanese monetary policy vacuum = stronger JPY

 

For those of you who like to get into the weeds on the numbers, please refer to our JUN 30 note titled “JAPAN POLICY VACUUM PART II?” for a deeper discussion of those puts and takes. It might not even be worth your time, however, as not much has changed since then.

 

Specifically, the BoJ’s latest policy meeting (statement out earlier today) was yet another nonevent. It left its QQE program unchanged, in line with the entire analyst community and the wording of the statement was broadly in line with previous guidance. Moreover, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated the board’s sanguine view of the Japanese economy and its progress on achieving #StructuralInflation in Japan.

 

In fact, a marginal tinkering of the FY14 real GDP growth estimate was the only update to their official guidance:

 

  • Real GDP:
    • FY14: +1%, down -10bps vs. the prior forecast
    • FY15: +1.5%, unchanged vs. the prior forecast
    • FY16: +1.3%, unchanged vs. the prior forecast
  • CPI (excluding the impact of the consumption tax hike):
    • FY14: +1.3%, unchanged vs. the prior forecast
    • FY15: +1.9%, unchanged vs. the prior forecast
    • FY16: +2.1%, unchanged vs. the prior forecast

 

The key takeaway for investors here is that the resiliency of the Japanese economy post the APR consumption tax hike coupled with no material change in the BoJ’s own outlook for inflation roughly equates to an incremental delay in the timing of incremental easing (i.e. expanding their QQE program).

 

Speaking to that resiliency, the preponderance of Japanese high-frequency growth data is now accelerating on a trend basis as of JUN:

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON JAPAN - Japan High Frequency GIP Data Monitor

 

This sequential momentum is highly likely to support a bounce in real GDP off an easier compare here in 3Q14. To the extent that catalyst materializes, we could now be looking at the DEC 18-19 meeting or early-2015 for the timing of the BoJ’s next move, which would likely follow two consecutive quarters of decelerating CPI readings, or at least be in response to a dovish policy delta out of the Federal Reserve that impacts the currency markets.

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON JAPAN - JAPAN

 

A lot could happen between now and then, so, net-net, we do not think it’s appropriate for investors to gross up their exposures to the Abenomics Trade in either direction at the current juncture. While our late-MAY call for investors to cover Abenomics shorts was highly appropriate (e.g. the Nikkei 225 Index is up +4.9% since then), the outlook from here remains unclear.

 

As such, we reiterate our call of not having a high-conviction call on Japan right now. Up until very recently, we’ve had one since 4Q12 (in both directions of the Abenomics Trade), so we’re more than content to stand pat and let the data instruct our next move. Why force it?

 

Have a great night,

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team


REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON CHINA

Takeaway: Recent economic data supports renewed optimism across Chinese capital markets, but we don’t think improvement in the former is sustainable.

Today, we received what was the latest in a string of directionally positive economic data out of China. Specifically, the JUN credit growth data confirms what we already knew: a multi-month string of fiscal and monetary policy “mini-stimulus” efforts have successfully stabilized the slope of Chinese economic growth. Not surprisingly, Chinese equity ETFs have performed fairly well on that catalyst (3M performance):

 

  • iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI): +8.8%
  • Guggenheim China Technology ETF (CQQQ): +9.4%
  • Global X China Consumer ETF (CHIQ): +0.1%
  • Global X China Financials ETF (CHIX): +7.3%
  • EGShares China Infrastructure ETF (CHXX): +5.7%

 

Digging into the weeds, aggregate financing accelerated materially in JUN on a sharp acceleration in deposit growth and shadow credit formation. Both are in line with the easing of fiscal and monetary policy over the past 3-6M and the former should continue to ease as we progress through the year (deficit spending out of Beijing tends to be back-half loaded).

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON CHINA - 1

 

This should come as no surprise to our subscribers, as we’ve literally been harping on this very point for the past two months. Refer to the following research note for more color on this topic, as well as for incremental color on the key takeaway of this note.

 

 

That key takeaway is very simple: don’t extrapolate recent data as something that resembles China turning the corner from a domestic demand perspective.

 

Specifically, the monetary policy guidance out of the PBoC would suggest that the bulk of the easing we’ve seen the Chinese money markets in recent months is now rear view mirror – especially with credit growth running so hot of late (this was the fastest pace of credit formation in any JUN since 2009!).

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON CHINA - China PBoC OMO

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON CHINA - China 7 day Repo Rate Monthly Avg

 

That should weigh on the outlook for fixed asset investment – particularly in the property sector, which remains a complete disaster (PRICE, DEMAND and FINANCING are all tending resoundingly negative amid positively trending SUPPLY). Moreover, Chinese credit formation (and headline GDP growth) tend to be skewed toward the first half of the year anyway. Add tougher GDP compares to that mix and you have what is a reasonably sound argument for rates of Chinese growth to peak here in the mid-summer.

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON CHINA - China Property Market Monitor

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON CHINA - China GDP Seasonality

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON CHINA - CHINA

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON CHINA - China Iron Ore  Rebar and Coal YoY

 

It’s worth nothing that we’re not calling for Chinese economic growth to tank in 2H14, nor do we see its obvious financial risks materializing in a meaningful way over the intermediate term. With CPI running well below the State Council’s +3.5% target in the YTD and a conservative sub-2% deficit/GDP ratio, Chinese authorities have plenty of scope to meaningfully ease monetary and fiscal policy in an effort to stave off anything resembling a crisis.

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON CHINA - CPI

 

Moreover, we think the threat of crisis is precisely why we don’t think they’ll waste their “bullets” on a likely marginal deterioration in economic conditions in 2H14. As our proprietary EM crisis risk modeling work continues to suggest, the Chinese financial system is rife with tail risks.

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON CHINA - PILLAR III

 

REITERATING OUR RESEARCH VIEW ON CHINA - EXPLANATION TABLE

 

We’ll cross that bridge when we eventually get to it. For now, trade your China exposures accordingly.

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team


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