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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 3, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 1.35% downside to 1948 and 0.12% upside to 1977.        

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.14 from 2.16
  • VIX closed at 10.82 1 day percent change of -2.96%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, June 28, est. 313k (prior 312k)
    • Continuing Claims, June 21, est. 2.560m (prior 2.571m)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 29 (prior 37.1)
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, June final, est. 61 (prior 61.2)
    • Markit US Composite PMI, June final (prior 61.1)
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite, June., est. 56.3 (prior 56.3)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate on recess until July 8
    • 6am: Quinnipiac releases public opinion survey of Iraq troops, background
    • checks for gun purchasers, stricter gun laws
    • 12:30pm: Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx, holds news conf. with Gov.
    • Lincoln Chafee, D-R.I., on Highway Trust Fund
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Incumbency Worth $500k

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • ECB watchers seek Draghi illumination on path from low rates
  • Obama decries trader bonus system as risky even after Dodd-Frank
  • Arthur becomes hurricane off U.S. East Coast
  • VW rejects comments by Daimler’s Bernhard of possible Paccar bid
  • U.K. services employment rises at record pace as demand jumps
  • Ackman’s Pershing Square fund Is said to gain 25% in 1H
  • Occidental talks for Middle East unit stake sale said to falter
  • Dimon’s cancer has 90% cure rate with demanding therapy
  • Amazon plans to fight FTC over unauthorized mobile-app purchases
  • ‘Transformers’ shows worldwide appeal with China outdrawing U.S.
  • Siemens CEO chasing U.S. gas boom has ‘firepower’ for deals
  • Qualcomm buys Wilocity to step up challenge to Broadcom in Wi-Fi
  • Tesla approved by Pennsylvania assembly to add company stores
  • Salesforce considers acquisitions in Germany to spur growth
  • U.S. equity markets close 1pm ahead of July 4 holiday

EARNINGS:

    • International Speedway (ISCA) 7:30am, $0.48

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Chinese Trader Said to Pledge Metals Three Times Over for Loans
  • World Food Prices Fall for Third Month as Grains Lead Decline
  • Cotton Boom Goes Bust as Texas Rains Revive Surplus: Commodities
  • Libya Reopening Two Oil Ports After Taking Control From Rebels
  • Arthur Strengthens to Become First Atlantic-Season Hurricane
  • Gold Retreats From Three-Month High Before U.S. Payrolls Report
  • Nickel Climbs to Highest Since May as U.S. Data Boosts Demand
  • Steel Rebar Falls From 1-Week High on Chinese Mills Supply Glut
  • Palm Oil Declines as Drop in Crude May Ease Demand for Biodiesel
  • Coffee Gains for Second Session; Sugar Drops as Surplus Raised
  • Sugar Millers in Thailand Urge Market Prices to Avoid Smuggling
  • Rupture-Prone Oil Trains Keep Rolling a Year After Quebec Crash
  • Conditions Not ‘Ripe’ to Decide Weda Bay Project in ’14: Eramet
  • Corn Nears Bear Market on Outlook for Biggest Ever U.S. Harvest

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

The Hedgeye Macro Team