TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 3, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 1.35% downside to 1948 and 0.12% upside to 1977.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 2.14 from 2.16
- VIX closed at 10.82 1 day percent change of -2.96%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, June 28, est. 313k (prior 312k)
- Continuing Claims, June 21, est. 2.560m (prior 2.571m)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 29 (prior 37.1)
- 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, June final, est. 61 (prior 61.2)
- Markit US Composite PMI, June final (prior 61.1)
- 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite, June., est. 56.3 (prior 56.3)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate on recess until July 8
- 6am: Quinnipiac releases public opinion survey of Iraq troops, background
- checks for gun purchasers, stricter gun laws
- 12:30pm: Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx, holds news conf. with Gov.
- Lincoln Chafee, D-R.I., on Highway Trust Fund
- U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Incumbency Worth $500k
WHAT TO WATCH:
- ECB watchers seek Draghi illumination on path from low rates
- Obama decries trader bonus system as risky even after Dodd-Frank
- Arthur becomes hurricane off U.S. East Coast
- VW rejects comments by Daimler’s Bernhard of possible Paccar bid
- U.K. services employment rises at record pace as demand jumps
- Ackman’s Pershing Square fund Is said to gain 25% in 1H
- Occidental talks for Middle East unit stake sale said to falter
- Dimon’s cancer has 90% cure rate with demanding therapy
- Amazon plans to fight FTC over unauthorized mobile-app purchases
- ‘Transformers’ shows worldwide appeal with China outdrawing U.S.
- Siemens CEO chasing U.S. gas boom has ‘firepower’ for deals
- Qualcomm buys Wilocity to step up challenge to Broadcom in Wi-Fi
- Tesla approved by Pennsylvania assembly to add company stores
- Salesforce considers acquisitions in Germany to spur growth
- U.S. equity markets close 1pm ahead of July 4 holiday
EARNINGS:
- International Speedway (ISCA) 7:30am, $0.48
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Chinese Trader Said to Pledge Metals Three Times Over for Loans
- World Food Prices Fall for Third Month as Grains Lead Decline
- Cotton Boom Goes Bust as Texas Rains Revive Surplus: Commodities
- Libya Reopening Two Oil Ports After Taking Control From Rebels
- Arthur Strengthens to Become First Atlantic-Season Hurricane
- Gold Retreats From Three-Month High Before U.S. Payrolls Report
- Nickel Climbs to Highest Since May as U.S. Data Boosts Demand
- Steel Rebar Falls From 1-Week High on Chinese Mills Supply Glut
- Palm Oil Declines as Drop in Crude May Ease Demand for Biodiesel
- Coffee Gains for Second Session; Sugar Drops as Surplus Raised
- Sugar Millers in Thailand Urge Market Prices to Avoid Smuggling
- Rupture-Prone Oil Trains Keep Rolling a Year After Quebec Crash
- Conditions Not ‘Ripe’ to Decide Weda Bay Project in ’14: Eramet
- Corn Nears Bear Market on Outlook for Biggest Ever U.S. Harvest
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team