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THE WEEK AHEAD: August 10-14

As usual, we have a full plate of critical economic data on deck for the upcoming week. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

Sunday/Monday August 10

Europe: June Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be released in France on Monday morning. In the UK, July BRC Retail Sales, Same Store and House Prices data will be released.

Asia: Sunday evening will be eventful with Japanese Machinery Orders and Current Accounts data as well as July M2, Credit and Liquidity measures. Australian Housing Finance data for June –inclusive of financing for single family homes and multi-family units—will be released at 9:30PM. At 10PM Chinese PPI and CPI data for July will be released, followed by Korean PPI at 11:00. Singapore will release revised/final Q2 GDP in the evening.

On Monday, Chinese Fixed Investment data for July will be released. With the intense scrutiny of the roaring real estate and equity markets on the mainland by bubble watchers, all eyes will be focused on this data point as a potential precursor to tightening measures.

Tuesday August 11

US: The 2-day FMOC meeting begins on Tuesday. The treasury will be auctioning 3 year notes in the afternoon.  Weekly ICSC Redbook and ABC Consumer Comfort index data will be released, as will June Wholesale Inventory and Sales figures and DOL Q2 Productivity and Labor cost data. Goods and Services data for June will be released by the Census Bureau. Weekly MBA mortgage data will be scrutinized for more signs of recovery in the domestic housing market, while EIA stock measures for oil and gasoline are not expected to contain any major changes.

Europe: German CPI levels for July will be released on Tuesday, as will June UK Trade Balance data.

Asia: Chinese Trade data for July will be released on Tuesday morning while Industrial Output and Retail Sales figures for July will be released at 10PM. We will be watching this data closely –in particular looking for any signals of cooling demand from imports. Japanese Consumer Confidence and CGPI measures for July will also be released that day.

Wednesday August 12

US:  The second day of the FOMC meeting will culminate in a policy announcement at 2:15PM. Also on Wednesday afternoon, the July Treasury Budget will be released and a 10-year note auction will be held.

Europe: France and Italy will both release CPI Data on Wednesday while the UK will have a slew of data points released, including Claimants, Wage data and the BOE Inflation Report. Eurozone Industrial Production data for June will be released and a 10-year German Bunde auction will be held.

Asia:  After a busy Tuesday, Wednesday will be somewhat quiet on the economic release front in Asia, with Indian Industrial production data for June in the morning expected to test the ability of India bulls to put a positive spin on stagnation. Japanese final Industrial Production for June will also be released.

Thursday August 13

US:  Thursday morning will bring the release of July Retail Sales, July Export Price Index, July Import Price Index and June Business Inventories.  The Treasury will hold a 30-year bond auction at 1PM, with M2 data slated for release at 4:30PM. EIA weekly Natural Gas figures will be released.

Europe: On Thursday morning, German, French and Eurozone Q2 GDP releases will dominate headlines. Spanish Consumer Inflation data will also be released that morning.

Asia:  After last week’s sequential decline, the Indian Wholesale Price Index is expected to register higher.  RBA Governor Stevens delivers his Semi-Annual testimony to Parliament at 7:30PM, an opportunity for him to again outline his decision to begin raising rates as the robust Australian economy continues to maintain positive growth.  

 

Friday August 14

US: We will be focused on the July CPI release at 8:30AM as well as Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data scheduled for 9:15. The preliminary Michigan Sentiment Index release for August is on the calendar for Friday morning as well.

Europe:  Spanish Q2 GDP will be released on Friday morning, while German, French and Eurozone Q2 GDP data will be released early on Saturday morning.  Other major economic data points going into the weekend include Eurozone July CP and FT House prices for July in the UK .

Asia: Hong Kong Q2 GDP will be released on Friday morning, while Japanese Q2 GDP will arrive at 7:50PM. Expect Chinese M2 data for July to reflect even greater liquidity last month.