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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 19, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or 1.48% downside to 1928 and 0.15% upside to 1960.                                                   

                                                                            

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.14 from 2.14
  • VIX  closed at 10.61 1 day percent change of -12.02%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)               

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, June 14, est. 313k (prior 317k)
  • Continuing Claims, June 7, est. 2.6m (prior 2.614m)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, June (prior 42.5)
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 15 (prior 35.5)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, June., est. 14 (prior 15.4)
  • 10am: Leading Index, May, est. 0.6% (prior 0.4%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • 8:50am: Dpty CMS Admin Cavanaugh at Accountable Care Summit
    • 9:30am: House Energy and Commerce panel meets on EPA’s proposed carbon dioxide rules for power plants
    • 10am: House Armed Services Cmte holds hearing on negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program
    • 12pm: FDIC Vice Chair Thomas Hoenig at Nat’l Economists Club
    • 2pm: House Republicans hold election to replace Majority Leader Eric Cantor; if House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy wins that post, election will be held to replace him
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Landrieu Touts Senate Panel’s Keystone Vote

               

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • GE’s Immelt in final push to sell France on Alstom bid
  • House Republicans hold leadership election to replace Cantor
  • Obama tells lawmakers he can act without Congress on Iraq
  • President distances U.S. from Maliki; see Iraq crisis wrap
  • Blackrock urging regulators to study risk of investor flight
  • Facebook working again after temporary site outage
  • Wal-Mart China to grow hypermarkets, e-commerce: China Daily
  • Markit raises $1.3b pricing increased IPO at $24 midpoint
  • T-Moble offers 7-day IPhone trial to tempt users to brand
  • Electronic Arts exec. says NCAA refused licensing rule change
  • Senators criticize marketing of e-cigarettes: Reuters
  • Ex-Goldman trader says bonus unfairly cut to $8.25m
  • FHLBs said to suspend admissions of insurers used by REITs

 

EARNINGS:

    • BlackBerry (BB CN) 7am, ($0.26) - Preview
    • IHS (IHS) 6am, $1.44
    • Kroger (KR) 8:45am, $1.05 - Preview
    • Oracle (ORCL) 4:01pm, $0.96
    • Rite Aid (RAD) 7am, $0.04
    • Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC) 4:05pm, $0.40
    • TIBCO Software (TIBX) 4:05pm, $0.13

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Fleeing Migrant Workers in Thailand Seen Delaying Rice Shipments
  • Brent Trades Near Nine-Month High on Iraq Conflict; WTI Rises
  • New Silver Benchmark Seen Heralding Gold Fix Revamp: Commodities
  • Commodities Climb to Highest Since August as Oil Rallies on Iraq
  • Zinc Climbs to Highest in Almost 16 Months as Stockpiles Shrink
  • Silver Fix Benchmark Replacement Should Be Announced Early July
  • Wheat Extends Gains as Rain Threatens to Thwart U.S. Harvest
  • Raw Sugar Retreats From Three-Month High; Arabica Coffee Drops
  • Steel Rebar Near Record Low as Traders Weigh Output, Economy
  • Half-Price Kurd Oil Threatens Iraq Breakup With Turkish Help
  • Ukraine Wants U.S. and EU Companies to Hold Gas-Pipeline Stake
  • Modi’s Inflation-Curbing Drive Seen Failing by Onion Traders
  • Iraqi Violence Jeopardizes PetroChina, Petronas Oil Investments
  • Gold Trades Near Highest in Three Weeks on Fed’s Rate Outlook

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Real Conversations: Chris Whalen On Housing, Banks, and Economic Risks

Chris Whalen, Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Kroll Bond Rating Agency, explains why he's bearish on housing, how Washington is failing America, and opportunities he sees with Hedgeye Financials Sector Head Josh Steiner.


Cartoon of the Day: Pricey Beef!

The seasonally-adjusted price index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs hit an all-time high in May, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

In January 1967, when the BLS started tracking this measure, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs was 38.1. As of last May, it was 234.572. This past May it climbed to a record 252.832.

 

Cartoon of the Day: Pricey Beef! - Beef cartoon 06.18.2014


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Target to Canada: We're Sorry

Takeaway: At least Target (finally) recognizes that it has a brand problem in Canada.

Editor's note: This is an excerpt from retail sector head Brian McGough's morning research. Click here for more information on options available to Hedgeye subscribers.

 

TGT - Target trying to woo back Canadian consumers with video apology

 

  • "Target has taken to YouTube in order to apologize to Canadians, using the voices of its employees to take responsibility for a disappointing first year in the country. The two-and-a-half-minute video features interviews with Target employees reflecting on the problems the company has faced and promising improvement in the future."

 

Takeaway: At least Target finally recognizes that it has a brand problem in Canada. Whether or not this plea for forgiveness actually works is for the consumer to decide. But, we don't think execution is the only thing to blame for TGT's underwhelming results North of the border.The fact is that Canadian marketplace can't support the revenue projections the company set. In order the hit the $6bil revenue target in FY17, TGT Canada would have to eclipse the US store share of wallet in 4 years. Consensus estimates have come down about $1.3bil since we published our report in late April and are now under $4bil, but we think numbers are still too high. 

 

Target to Canada: We're Sorry - 445



Restaurant Sector Valuation

In our newest biweekly product, we look at valuations across the restaurant industry categorized by specific sub-sectors. While these posts will primarily consist of charts, we have a few notable callouts in this week’s addition:

  • For the most part, we've seen a healthy correction in early 2014 across most of the industry.
  • Rising coffee prices and slowing domestic traffic trends at SBUX led to a notable correction in the valuation of the Coffee Category.
  • Rising cheese prices led to a notable correction in the valuation of the Pizza Category. 
  • Rising seafood, beef and produce prices have not yet led to a notable correction in the valuation of the Fine Dining Category.  We believe this day will soon come and have positioned accordingly – short DFRG.
  • From both a historical and relative perspective, the Fast Casual Category looks like the most attractive one in the restaurant space as PNRA, PBPB and NDLS have struggled of late.  FRGI is an intriguing story that we intend to familiarize ourselves with over the coming weeks.  It appears, to some extent, that the Street has not yet acknowledged it as a true fast casual competitor. 

Please note that the valuation tables below include the minimum, maximum and average valuations from 2010 and on.

Casual dining category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - one

Restaurant Sector Valuation - two

Restaurant Sector Valuation - three

coffee category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - four

Restaurant Sector Valuation - five

Restaurant Sector Valuation - six

family/fine dining category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - seven

Restaurant Sector Valuation - eight

Restaurant Sector Valuation - nine

Restaurant Sector Valuation - ten

Restaurant Sector Valuation - eleven

fast casual category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - twelve

Restaurant Sector Valuation - thirteen

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 14

pizza category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - fifteen

Restaurant Sector Valuation - sixteen

Restaurant Sector Valuation - seventeen

sandwich category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - eighteen

Restaurant Sector Valuation - nineteen

Restaurant Sector Valuation - twenty

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst


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