THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 19, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or 1.48% downside to 1928 and 0.15% upside to 1960.                                                   

                                                                            

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.14 from 2.14
  • VIX  closed at 10.61 1 day percent change of -12.02%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)               

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, June 14, est. 313k (prior 317k)
  • Continuing Claims, June 7, est. 2.6m (prior 2.614m)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, June (prior 42.5)
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 15 (prior 35.5)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, June., est. 14 (prior 15.4)
  • 10am: Leading Index, May, est. 0.6% (prior 0.4%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • 8:50am: Dpty CMS Admin Cavanaugh at Accountable Care Summit
    • 9:30am: House Energy and Commerce panel meets on EPA’s proposed carbon dioxide rules for power plants
    • 10am: House Armed Services Cmte holds hearing on negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program
    • 12pm: FDIC Vice Chair Thomas Hoenig at Nat’l Economists Club
    • 2pm: House Republicans hold election to replace Majority Leader Eric Cantor; if House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy wins that post, election will be held to replace him
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Landrieu Touts Senate Panel’s Keystone Vote

               

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • GE’s Immelt in final push to sell France on Alstom bid
  • House Republicans hold leadership election to replace Cantor
  • Obama tells lawmakers he can act without Congress on Iraq
  • President distances U.S. from Maliki; see Iraq crisis wrap
  • Blackrock urging regulators to study risk of investor flight
  • Facebook working again after temporary site outage
  • Wal-Mart China to grow hypermarkets, e-commerce: China Daily
  • Markit raises $1.3b pricing increased IPO at $24 midpoint
  • T-Moble offers 7-day IPhone trial to tempt users to brand
  • Electronic Arts exec. says NCAA refused licensing rule change
  • Senators criticize marketing of e-cigarettes: Reuters
  • Ex-Goldman trader says bonus unfairly cut to $8.25m
  • FHLBs said to suspend admissions of insurers used by REITs

 

EARNINGS:

    • BlackBerry (BB CN) 7am, ($0.26) - Preview
    • IHS (IHS) 6am, $1.44
    • Kroger (KR) 8:45am, $1.05 - Preview
    • Oracle (ORCL) 4:01pm, $0.96
    • Rite Aid (RAD) 7am, $0.04
    • Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC) 4:05pm, $0.40
    • TIBCO Software (TIBX) 4:05pm, $0.13

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Fleeing Migrant Workers in Thailand Seen Delaying Rice Shipments
  • Brent Trades Near Nine-Month High on Iraq Conflict; WTI Rises
  • New Silver Benchmark Seen Heralding Gold Fix Revamp: Commodities
  • Commodities Climb to Highest Since August as Oil Rallies on Iraq
  • Zinc Climbs to Highest in Almost 16 Months as Stockpiles Shrink
  • Silver Fix Benchmark Replacement Should Be Announced Early July
  • Wheat Extends Gains as Rain Threatens to Thwart U.S. Harvest
  • Raw Sugar Retreats From Three-Month High; Arabica Coffee Drops
  • Steel Rebar Near Record Low as Traders Weigh Output, Economy
  • Half-Price Kurd Oil Threatens Iraq Breakup With Turkish Help
  • Ukraine Wants U.S. and EU Companies to Hold Gas-Pipeline Stake
  • Modi’s Inflation-Curbing Drive Seen Failing by Onion Traders
  • Iraqi Violence Jeopardizes PetroChina, Petronas Oil Investments
  • Gold Trades Near Highest in Three Weeks on Fed’s Rate Outlook

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more