The big rip in oil prices all but ensures a big U.S. #ConsumerTax hike this summer. At $106.90/barrel this morning, WTI Crude is up +9% for the year-to-date now. This very much augments our U.S. #ConsumerSlowing Macro Theme.
Meanwhile, CRB Commodities Index (19 commodities) are up +1.6% for the week and +10.3% year-to-date.
In other words, it’s almost mathematically impossible to get to Consensus Macro GDP estimates for Q314 if the Deflator reflects #InflationAccelerating.