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PNRA: Closing Best Idea Short

We added Panera Bread Company (PNRA) to our Best Ideas list on 04/05/2013 at $177.20/share.  Since this time, 2014 EPS estimates have been revised down substantially from $8.16 to $6.87 and the share price has acted accordingly (down ~10%).  The S&P 500 is up ~26% over this time.  With this note we are removing Short PNRA from our Best Ideas list.

 

PNRA still has issues, many of which we’ve previously voiced our concerns over, but the stock has been more resilient lately than we’d expected.  At 9.80x EV/EBITDA (NTM) and 22.49x P/EPS (NTM), the stock screens quite attractive relative to other fast casual and quick service companies.  To be clear, we believe disappointing news is largely baked in at these levels and have a difficult time seeing meaningful downside from here.

 

All told, we believe the Street thinks highly of CEO Ron Shaich – and they should.  Mr. Shaich is a visionary that has built an incredible company and we believe he will be able to turn things around at Panera, but it will be a bumpy ride.  We are also concerned with a lack of earnings visibility, insomuch that we are no longer comfortable staying short.  May was another weak month for the restaurant industry, but it was the first month the trends improved on the margin in quite some time.  2Q14 is a difficult comp, but the back half of the year sets up quite favorably for Panera.  This is not to say they will post blow out numbers, but simply to acknowledge the trends are likely to improve.

 

We are far from becoming a big fan of the stock, but to remain short, at these levels, would be unwise.  We believe there are now better opportunities, both on the long and short side, elsewhere.

 

PNRA: Closing Best Idea Short - chart1

 

Research Recap:

PNRA Hype Makes It Shortable (04/05/2013)

PNRA Short Thesis Playing Out As Expected (04/24/2013)

PNRA Short Thesis Playing Out As Expected, Part II (07/23/2013)

PNRA: No Quick-Fix Recipe (09/26/2013)

PNRA: Stage 1 Denial (10/21/2013)

PNRA: The Pace Of Change? (10/23/2013)

Best Idea Update: Short PNRA (12/19/2013)

PNRA: Expect Some Near-Term Pain (03/26/2014)

PNRA: Much Noise, Little Clarity (04/30/2014)

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst


CAKE: Closing Best Idea Short

We added The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) to our Best Ideas list on 01/16/2014 at $47.51/share.  Since this time, 2014 EPS estimates have been revised down approximately $0.10 from $2.38 to $2.28, but the share price has been resilient (down ~1%).  The S&P 500 is up ~6% over this time.  With this note we are removing Short CAKE from our Best Ideas list.


CAKE was intended to be an intermediate-term short call, hinged on our expectation for a disappointing 1Q14.  This came to fruition, as notable margin pressure manifested in a $0.06 earnings miss.  In fact, we even got the full-year guide down we were looking for (FY14 EPS $2.24-2.33 from prior $2.29-2.41) but the stock’s resistance to follow suit has been discouraging.  Six consecutive quarters of declining traffic continues to be concerning, but this appears to be the new norm in casual dining.

 

At 8.85x EV/EBITDA (NTM) and 19.59x P/EPS (NTM), the stock screens quite attractively relative to other casual dining companies.  Given the company’s superior same-store sales and revised FY14 estimates that appear achievable, we can no longer recommend it as a high conviction short.  We wish the stock followed the fundamentals more closely to-date, but hope is not an investment process.

 

On to the next one.

 

CAKE: Closing Best Idea Short - chart1

 

Research Recap:

New Best Idea: Short Cake (01/16/2014)

CAKE: Risk Profile Rising (01/17/2014)

CAKE: Operational Observations (01/21/2014)

CAKE: Dairy Prices Rising (01/29/2014)

CAKE: Thin Batter (02/13/2014)

CAKE: Still Short (04/24/2014)

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 9, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or 1.25% downside to 1925 and 0.34% upside to 1956.                           

                                                                                                    

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.21 from 2.19
  • VIX closed at 10.73 1 day percent change of -8.13%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • No major reports scheduled
  • 9:10am: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Florida
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Tarullo speaks in Washington
  • 1:30pm: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Guatemala

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Obama said to prepare action to ease student debt payments
    • Kerry calls threats of freed Taliban to resume war ’baloney’
    • House Veterans’ Affairs Cmte hearing on “Data Manipulation and Access to VA Healthcare: Testimony from GAO, IG and VA
    • 9:30am/10am: Supreme Court to issue orders, opinions
    • 11am: NABE holds conf call to discuss economic outlook
    • 9pm: Former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton to be interviewed on ABC News on new book ‘‘Hard Choices”
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Mississippi Politics; Calif. 31st CD Race
    • Washington Week Ahead

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Tyson said to win bid for Hillshire, besting Pilgrim’s Pride
  • Treasury discloses limits on bank-data sharing w/spy agencies
  • Credit Suisse may sell more of fixed-income venture
  • Netflix holders vote whether to split chairman/CEO role
  • China said to suspend import permits for Sygenta’s MIR 162
  • McDonald’s May comp-sales growth seen led by Asia, Europe
  • SABMiller seeks to ramp up shr of U.S. premium-beer mkt: FT
  • Buffett auction gets $2.17m winning bid from Singaporean
  • Kraft joins J.M. Smucker in raising coffee prices
  • Japan growth picks up more than estimated on investment
  • Macau yr gaming growth est. cut to 12% at Deutsche Bank

 

EARNINGS:

    • Casey’s General Stores (CASY) 4pm, $0.53
    • Comverse (CNSI) 6:50am, $(0.06)
    • Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) 7am, $0.59
    • Hertz (HTZ) 6:02am, $0.09
    • Pep Boys-Manny Moe & Jack (PBY) 4:30pm, $0.06
    • Triangle Petroleum (TPLM) 5:48pm, $0.12

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • WTI Trades Near Three-Day High on U.S. Employment; Brent Rises
  • Cotton Acres Expanding in India as Prices Climb to Two-Year High
  • Copper Bets Cut Most in Month as Metal Leads Losers: Commodities
  • China Said to Suspend Import Permits for U.S. Corn Product
  • Copper Declines as Lower Chinese Imports Stoke Demand Concern
  • Corn Drops as U.S. Crop Conditions Boost Production Prospects
  • Gold Near One-Week High as Palladium Reaches Highest Since 2011
  • Sugar Rises Amid Signs Physical Demand May Recover; Coffee Falls
  • Steel Rebar Falls as China Imports Drop Signals Weakening Demand
  • Hedge Funds Retreat From Record Crude Wagers on Supplies: Energy
  • Vale Too Rich for Barclays on Iron’s 30% Plunge: Brazil Credit
  • World Needs Saudi Arabia to Supply Record Oil as OPEC Meets
  • U.S. Mint Gold Coin Sales Fall 49% on Fed Tapering, Flat Prices
  • Mitsubishi UFJ Trust’s Gold ETF Grows to Record as Prices Drop

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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The Best of This Week From Hedgeye

Takeaway: Here's a quick look at some of the top videos, cartoons, market insights and more from Hedgeye this past week.

HEDGEYETV

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, sits down with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough to talk markets, the economy and much more in this latest edition of HedgeyeTV's "Real Conversations."

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough gives his outlook for the broader market and Russell 2000 on Fox Business' Opening Bell last Monday.

 

Here's the question-and-answer portion from our daily institutional Morning Call hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Macro analyst Darius Dale from Tuesday.

CARTOONS

Click here to subscribe to Cartoon of the Day. 

 

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - Blinders cartoon June 2014

 

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - shark cartoon June 2014 

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - Job growth 6.5.2014

CHART

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - SPX 

POLL

As bond yields crash year-to-date and the Russell delivers negative returns, the world’s most consensus short position (SPX Index + E-mini) hit another new high on no volume on Monday. Click here to view the poll and results.

 The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - poll

HEDGEYE.COM

Fourth Week of Consecutive Decline in Mortgage Demand

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - 18x74ymmndzzhjpg

Despite falling rates and solid labor market indicators, the demand to buy homes keeps dropping. Click here to continue reading.

 

Jobless Claims: Back at Best Levels Year-To-Date

 The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - jobs1

A second week of accelerating improvement brings rolling non-seasonally adjusted claims back to best levels YTD. Click here to read more.

 

Hedgeye Retail: Wary Of Skechers' (Mis)Direction | $SKX

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - chart1 6 2 large

We've never seen a brand go in so many directions at once. Click here for more.

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INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER

Takeaway: Current Investing Ideas: GLD, HCA, HOLX, LM, LO, OC, RH, and TIP

Below are Hedgeye analysts' latest updates on our EIGHT current high-conviction investing ideas and CEO Keith McCullough's updated levels for each.

 

*Please note we added TIP and removed ZQK from Investing Ideas this week.

 

We also feature three institutional research notes from earlier this week which offer valuable insight into the markets and economy.

 

INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER - 1

Trade :: Trend :: Tail Process - These are three durations over which we analyze investment ideas and themes. Hedgeye has created a process as a way of characterizing our investment ideas and their risk profiles, to fit the investing strategies and preferences of our subscribers.

  • "Trade" is a duration of 3 weeks or less
  • "Trend" is a duration of 3 months or more
  • "Tail" is a duration of 3 years or less

HEDGEYE CARTOON OF THE WEEK

INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER - Job growth 6.5.2014 

IDEAS UPDATES

GLD –  On Wednesday afternoon we reiterated our call to buy Gold ahead of the ECB meeting which was anticlimactic relative to expectations.

 

The ECB made the following rate cuts:

  • Benchmark Rate Cut from 0.25% to 0.15% (0.10% estimated)
  • Marginal Lending Facility from 0.75% to 0.40% (0.60% estimated)
  • Deposit Facility from 0.0% to -0.10% (-0.10% estimated)

After the announcement at 7:45 a.m., the Euro (ETF: FXE) opened down -0.35% from its Wednesday close and moved higher throughout the day to close +0.43% on the session. Gold (ETF: GLD) rallied on the announcement and closed +0.75% on the day. Gold is up +0.55% week-over-week, and we remain long into the Fed policy meeting on the 18th.

 

Because we believe Gold is a hedge against the expectation for forward-looking dollar devaluation, Gold’s strong correlation to the Euro as soon as Mario Draghi mentioned a potential asset purchase program back in February is not the least bit surprising. 

 

INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER - gold


HCA – We’ve been attempting to measure deliveries with a monthly survey of OB/GYNs. Our May/June survey shows a modest improvement, but deliveries reported by the surveyed OB/GYNs continue to decline year over year. The results have been consistently showing a decline over the last several months despite comments from hospital companies, including HCA Holdings, and data from the US Census showing that births accelerated in 4Q13 with growth continuing into 1Q14. 

 

The US Census will update their data for May by the fourth week of June, giving us what would appear to be the most accurate indication of maternity trends.  We continue to track these data closely as maternity is the  largest contributor to inpatient admissions.

 

INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER - Deliveries completed May


HOLX ­­– The monthly OB/GYN survey of Pap utilization shows we are on track with our estimate of an annual rate of decline of -10% for Hologic’s ThinPrep franchise.  While some physicians are seeing volume decline at 20% or more in some cases, there are many others who are already compliant with the 2012 Cervical Cancer Screening Guidelines, or at the other extreme will never reach 100% compliance of testing every 3 years. 

 

Patient volume weakened somewhat sequentially, particularly among commercially insured patients. Medicaid volume remained positive, likely supported by the ACA.  Regionally, the Midwest was particularly weak relative to other regions.

 

INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER - PAP JUN14

 

LM – Shares of leading bond fund manager Legg Mason had another good week rising 4% as the hunt for yield among stocks and bonds continued. With the European Central Banks cutting rates again, the outlook for most global paper brightened as when an important developed market lowers prevailing interest rates, existing fixed income can appreciate.

 

Legg Mason also sold a small sub-scale asset management division to Stifel & Co. during the course of the most recent 5-day period which relays that LM management is focused on delivering strong shareholder returns by selling non-core assets and executing share repurchases and dividend hikes. The year-to-date outperformance of an investment in Legg Mason is undeniable with LM shares now up over 16% in 2014, some 11 points higher than the next best performing asset management stock.

 

We still like the long position until Street consensus recognizes this out of favor investment.

 

INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER - lm

 

LO – The stock pulled back off all-time highs this week on no new news events. For yet another week the investment community is wondering if Lorillard will be taken out, likely by Reynolds American (RAI).

 

We continue to suggest that investors hold this stock into potential news of the buyout or until our long-term fair value price of the stock at $80/share is realized.  And we continue to assert that the company’s powerful earnings generation is anchored on its advantaged tobacco and e-cigarette portfolio.

 

Bottom line: we do not think LO will be imminently purchased and are staying long the stock that we added to Investing Ideas on 3/7/14. 

 

INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER - lo


OC –  Owens Corning’s roofing & insulation segments draws more revenue from the renovation/repair segment versus raw housing starts. This makes intuitive sense as weather, plus wear and tear, occurs more frequently than construction of new homes.

 

Looking at the graph below, the variance between NAHB’s Remodeling Index and the Home Builders Index is easily noticeable. The Home Builders Index fluctuated from 8 to 70 compared with 21 to 57 for the Remolding Index. In other words, the remodeling market is less cyclical than the housing market, which should provide Owens Corning with stable earnings compared to housing related names such as Lennar, D.R. Horton, and KB Homes. 

 

INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER - oc

 

RH – Restoration Hardware reports earnings Wednesday, June 11th after the close, and we are expecting revenue growth in the high teens. This is a tale of two halves for RH, with square footage growth weighted towards the back half of the year and the anniversary of the change in Source Book strategy starting in 3Q.

 

Our model is calling for low 20% revenue growth in the first half compared to high 20% in the back half, and 25% for the full year. That coupled with slight margin expansion puts us significantly ahead of the street for the both the first quarter and the balance of the year.

 

TIP –  Hedgeye's macro team added the iShares TIPS Bond ETF to Investing Ideas this week. Click here to read the full report from macro analyst Darius Dale.

 

*   *   *   *   *   *   *
 

Click on each title below to unlock the institutional content.

 

China to Implement QE?

Macro analyst Darius Dale takes a look at why it remains unlikely that he sees anything resembling meaningful monetary stimulus in China over the intermediate term.
INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER - china

 

Corelogic Data for May Show Housing Is Slowing Rapidly

Hedgeye's Housing team analyzes CoreLogic's May HPI report, which showed further marked deceleration in the rate of home price growth nationally.

INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER - housing1

 

Eye-Catching Industrials Data 

Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver explains why ISM Manufacturing new orders continues to imply that the 1Q 2014 slowdown was a bit more than just weather.

INVESTING IDEAS NEWSLETTER - construction2


Stock Report: iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)

Stock Report: iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) - HE II TIP table 6 6 14

THE HEDGEYE EDGE

“The Perils of Falling Inflation.” Like clockwork, that phrase was on the cover of the November 9th – 15th issue of The Economist right after headline CPI bottomed at +1% YoY in OCT ’13. Fast forward to today, domestic consumer price inflation – on the government’s conflicted and compromised metric – is running +100% higher at +2% YoY (APR ’14).

 

Inflation doubled, lol!

 

Ok, that’s probably not very funny – especially if you’re a consumer that is feeling the pinch of rising inflation. Growth in real incomes in America has slowed from its cycle-peak of +1.3% YoY in OCT ’13 to +0.3% YoY as of APR ’14. 

TIMESPAN

INTERMEDIATE TERM (TREND) (the next 3 months or more)

Luckily you, unlike the vast majority of Americans, can do something about it. In line with our #InflationAccelerating macro theme (introduced in JAN ‘14), we continue to anticipate that reported inflation will accelerate throughout 2014. There are three primary reasons we hold this view:

 

ONE: Holding current prices flat, the US dollar on a trade-weighted basis will dip into negative YoY territory in 2Q14E and will remain negative through 3Q14E, only returning to marginally positive by 4Q14E. This is a sharp deterioration from the +3-4% trend we’ve seen since the start of 1Q13. That should provide a material shock to the rate of change in import price inflation, which, at -0.3% YoY, is currently accelerating off the lows of late-2013 (-1.8% YoY in NOV).

 

Stock Report: iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) - 1

 

TWO: We do not, however, think it’s prudent to hold current market prices flat. While most of Wall St. continues to anticipate higher rates amid tighter policy out of the Federal Reserve, we believe rising inflation will continue to slow consumption growth at the margins – which is ~70% of US GDP. That, coupled with the precipitous decline in both activity and price appreciation in the housing market, should eventually force the Fed to pare back their guidance on eventual monetary tightening. A cessation of their existing policy to taper is not out of the question by the third quarter. Commodities, which hold a -0.70 correlation to the USD (CRB Index vs. US Dollar Index; trailing 6M), should continue to grind higher. It’s worth noting that the CRB Index is up +9% YTD, besting the sub-6% return for the S&P 500. 

 

Stock Report: iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) - 2

 

THREE: If none of our market-based forecasts come to fruition, we still have confidence in CPI accelerating over the intermediate term – if for no other reason than base effects. Without getting too geeked out on differential calculus, “simple” math would suggest that as comparative base rates decline sequentially – which they do throughout the balance of the year – the probability that the rate of change accelerates from the base rate (i.e. t₀) increases substantially. 

 

 

 

LONG-TERM (TAIL) (the next 3 years or less)

In line with our #StructuralInflation macro theme (introduced in APR ’14), we continue to think structural inflationary pressures are building up across the US economy. While we cede the point that considerable slack remains in the labor market, we do not think investors are paying nearly enough attention to the following supply-side pressures that are likely to perpetuate cost-push inflation over the long term:

 

  • S = I. Savings equals investment. That’s the most basic, underappreciated formula in all of the borderline useless economic theory we’ve all had the “great privilege” of learning. With rates being held at zero for such a long time, it should come as no surprise that real nonresidential fixed investment is up only +3.3% on a trailing 5Y CAGR basis. That’s the slowest rate of growth this far into an economic expansion over at least the last 30Y.
  • Again, when the central bank cuts rates to zero and leaves them there for the better part of six years, savings are naturally pulled from traditional investment vehicles that encourage investment (i.e. bank deposits) and into investment vehicles that actually encourage disinvestment – such as MLPs – in search of higher yields. Duh. Moreover, corporations – which have been increasingly rewarded by investors to buy back stock and ramp dividends – have largely done so in lieu of investing in their businesses. Now, as we approach what may be the end of economic cycle, many corporations streamlining trailing peak GDP growth rates and are scrambling to ramp up production into the inevitable result of seven years worth of broad SG&A deleveraging: limited production, transportation and storage capacity.
  • Q: What happens when company A acquires company B in industry C? A: There are fewer companies operating in industry C, effectively creating marginal headroom for company A to hike prices on its customers. This phenomenon has been happening all throughout the post-crisis era and is now accelerating to a hilt here in 2014. The total number of domestic enterprises has declined -6% since the pre-crisis peak, with larger firms leading the decline at -10%. For example, Airlines and Hotels are two obvious industries in which consumers are feeling the pricing pinch of decreased competition. Newsflash to domestic equity bulls: you can’t be long the Airlines on a tired industry consolidation thesis and say that there’s [going to be] no inflation. That’s disingenuous at best…

 

Stock Report: iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) - 3

 

Stock Report: iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) - 4

 

Stock Report: iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) - 5

 

Stock Report: iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) - 6

 

CONCLUSION

Buy TIPS. Protect you and your loved ones from a likely acceleration in inflation. Please note that we are not making a hysterical call for hyperinflation born out of serial money printing. That’s not our style. Rather, our style is to call it like it is: the US economy is likely to experience a run-of-the-mill pickup in reported inflation. A 3-handle on headline CPI – which remains a conflicted and compromised calculation – is probable over the intermediate term.

 

Inflation tripling, lol!

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team

 

Stock Report: iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) - 7

ONE-YEAR TRAILING CHART

Stock Report: iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) - HE II TIP chart 6 6 14


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