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Fund Flows, Refreshed

Takeaway: In the most recent five-day period, all equity mutual funds experienced net outflows versus all bond funds which captured net inflows.

Editor's Note: This research note was originally sent to subscribers on May 22, 2014 by Hedgeye’s Financials analyst Jonathan Casteleyn. Follow Jonathan on Twitter @HedgeyeJC.

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - wallstreet2

 

ICI Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow

In the most recent 5 day period, the combination of taxable and tax-free bond funds had another strong week of production with $3.9 billion in inflow, well above the running year-to-date average of $2.1 billion. Conversely, equity funds had only the third net outflow of the year with $1.0 billion leaving all equity mutual funds, well below the year-to-date average of a $3.1 billion inflow

 

Total equity mutual fund flows experienced only the third net outflow of 2014 with $1.0 billion being redeemed through a combination of domestic and international equity funds as reported by the Investment Company Institute (ICI). The culprit was the substantial $2.3 billion that came out of domestic stock funds which was slightly offset by the $1.2 billion inflow into international products for the week ending May 14th. Both equity categories were below the running 2014 weekly averages with the combined weekly mean for all equity products remaining a $3.1 billion inflow, now basically on par with the $3.1 billion weekly average inflow from 2013. 

 

Conversely, fixed income mutual fund flows continued on much strong footing for the week ending May 14th, with another solid $3.9 billion flowing into all fixed income funds. While this production was a slight deceleration from the $5.4 billion that came into bond products last week, the inflow into taxable products was the 14th consecutive week of positive flow and the inflow into municipal or tax-free products was the 18th consecutive week of positive subscriptions. The 2014 weekly average for fixed income mutual funds now stands at a $2.1 billion weekly inflow, a vast improvement from 2013's weekly average outflow of $1.5 billion, but still a far cry from the $5.8 billion weekly average inflow from 2012 (our view of the blow off top in bond fund inflow). 

 

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) had positive trends on both sides of the ledger this week with a solid equity inflow complemented by a moderate inflow into bond exchange traded funds. Equity ETFs experienced a robust $9.6 billion inflow, while fixed income ETFs put up a $1.0 billion subscription. The 2014 weekly averages are now a $870 million weekly inflow for equity ETFs and a $1.0 billion weekly inflow for fixed income ETFs. 

 

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF trends against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive $3.4 billion spread for the week ($8.5 billion of total equity inflow versus the $5.1 billion inflow within fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52 week moving average has been $7.3 billion (more positive money flow to equities), with a 52 week high of $31.0 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52 week low of -$37.5 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week). 

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the ICI and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. ETF information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.   

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart 1

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart 2

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart 3

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart 4

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart 5

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart 6

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart 7

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow Within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart 8

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart 9

 

Net Results

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF trends against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive $3.4 billion spread for the week ($8.5 billion of total equity inflow versus the $5.1 billion inflow within fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52 week moving average has been $7.3 billion (more positive money flow to equities), with a 52 week high of $31.0 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52 week low of -$37.5 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week). 

 

Fund Flows, Refreshed - ICI chart 10 

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European Banking Monitor: Credit Spreads Held Flat On The Week

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .

 

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European Financial CDS - Swaps were little changed in Europe last week, though a big move came at Russia's Sberbank where spreads tightened by 30 bps w/w and are now tighter by 63 bps m/m.

 

European Banking Monitor: Credit Spreads Held Flat On The Week - chart 1 euro financials cds

 

Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps were wider across the board last week except for in the US, where they tightened 1 basis point. Portugal and Italy led the charge higher, rising by 16 and 8 bps, respectively. 

 

European Banking Monitor: Credit Spreads Held Flat On The Week - chart 2 sovereign cds

 

European Banking Monitor: Credit Spreads Held Flat On The Week - chart 3 sovereign cds

 

European Banking Monitor: Credit Spreads Held Flat On The Week - chart 4 sovereign cds

 

Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bps to 20 bps.

 

European Banking Monitor: Credit Spreads Held Flat On The Week - Chart 5 Euribor OIS Spread

 

 

Matthew Hedrick

Associate

 

Ben Ryan

Analyst

 

 

 


TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY

Takeaway: Euribor-OIS has been quietly creeping higher for the past month. Historically, this has been an important risk measure to keep an eye on.

Current Best Ideas:

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 19

 

Key Callouts:

The pre-holiday week saw yield spreads widen modestly (+3 bps) and European interbank systemic risk measures rise further.

 

* 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread widened to 219 bps, 3 bps wider than a week ago. We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.

 

* Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bps to 20 bps, continuing the directional trend that's been in place for the past month. Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary

 • Short-term(WoW): Negative / 1 of 12 improved / 5 out of 12 worsened / 6 of 12 unchanged

 • Intermediate-term(WoW): Positive / 5 of 12 improved / 4 out of 12 worsened / 3 of 12 unchanged

 • Long-term(WoW): Positive / 3 of 12 improved / 2 out of 12 worsened / 7 of 12 unchanged

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 15

 

1. U.S. Financial CDS -  Swaps were fairly uneventful for the most part last week across the US Financials. That said, there were notable moves (wider) in the mortgage insurers and (tighter) in the bond guarantors. 

 

Tightened the most WoW: AGO, MBI, AXP

Widened the most WoW: UNM, HIG, CB

Tightened the most WoW: AGO, MBI, MET

Widened the most MoM: BAC, GNW, MMC

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 1

 

2. European Financial CDS - Swaps were little changed in Europe last week, though a big move came at Russia's Sberbank where spreads tightened by 30 bps w/w and are now tighter by 63 bps m/m.

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 2

 

3. Asian Financial CDS - Indian banks put on another impressive display of tightening, compressing by an average 21 bps w/w and are now tighter by 66 bps, on average, m/m. Japanese and Chinese banks were narrowly wider on the week.

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 17

 

4. Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps were wider across the board last week except for in the US, where they tightened 1 basis point. Portugal and Italy led the charge higher, rising by 16 and 8 bps, respectively. 

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 18

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 3

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 4

 

5. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates rose 1.3 bps last week, ending the week at 5.53% versus 5.51% the prior week.

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 5

 

6. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index rose 1.0 points last week, ending at 1870.

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 6

 

7. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread fell 1.5 basis points last week, ending the week at 19.6 bps this week versus last week’s print of 21.06 bps.

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 7

 

8. CRB Commodity Price Index – The CRB index rose 0.1%, ending the week unchanged at 308 vs the prior week. As compared with the prior month, commodity prices have decreased -1.3% We generally regard changes in commodity prices on the margin as having meaningful consumption implications.

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 8

 

9. Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bps to 20 bps.

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 9

 

10. Chinese Interbank Rate (Shifon Index) –  The Shifon Index rose 14 basis points last week, ending the week at 2.51% versus last week’s print of 2.37%. The Shifon Index measures banks’ overnight lending rates to one another, a gauge of systemic stress in the Chinese banking system.

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 10

 

11. Chinese Steel – Steel prices in China fell 1.1% last week, or 37 yuan/ton, to 3,221 yuan/ton. We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity, and, by extension, the health of the Chinese economy.

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 12

 

12. 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread widened to 219 bps, 3 bps wider than a week ago. We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 13

 

13. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 1.0% upside to TRADE resistance and 0.6% downside to TRADE support.

 

TUESDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR:  EURIBOR-OIS CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY - 14

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

 


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LEISURE LETTER (05/27/2014)

Tickers:  HOT, IHG, STAY, MAR, RCL

EVENTS TO WATCH

  • Tuesday, May 27 - Aristocrat Leisure: 11pm (Live Phone Number: , Passcode: 9068797)
  • Monday, June 2 - Goldman Sachs Lodging, Gaming, Restaurant and Leisure Conference 

COMPANY NEWS

HOT - sold its leasehold interest in the Park Lane Hotel in London, UK, to Sir Richard Stutton's Settled Estates for an undisclosed sum.  Starwood will continue to 303-room, Sheraton-branded, Art Deco property under a new long-term management agreement.

Takeaway: Don't have terms but Strategic Hotels sold its leasehold interest in the 237-room Marriott London Grosvenor Square hotel for £125.15 million ($207.7 million), or approximately £528,000 per key ($877,000). 

 

IHG - turned down a £6B takeover approach.  Sources believe it was either Starwood Hotels or Starwood Capital.  Industry observers in London expect the buyer to return with a rebid.

Takeaway: Given HOT's share repurchase announcement, we doubt HOT is still involved, if they ever were. IHG recently announced a large capital return so nothing is imminent from their end either.

 

STAY - the IPO lock-up covering 172.3M shares (84.1% of outstanding) expired on May 25. 

Takeaway:  STAY listed at $20/share vs. Friday's closing price of of $21.49/share.

 

MAR - insider J Marriott, Jr. sold 97,043 shares of stock on Friday, May 23rd at an average price of $59.09, for a total transaction of $5,734,270.87. Following the sale, the insider now directly owns 188,229 shares in the company.

Takeaway: More insider selling in hotel companies.

 

RCL - announced its year-round deployment in Singapore for the first time from 2015, starting with its ship Legend of the Seas in the summer season and followed by Mariner of the Seas in the year-end.  

Takeway: Continued focus on Asia in 2015

 

MSC: Sees Fantasia class ship in UK by 2017 (Cruise Business Review)

MSC is reported to be considering a return to the UK after a break next year and to have a 137,000 gross ton Fantasia class ship based in Southampton by 2017.

Takeaway:  MSC is certainly surprising some folks on how fast the company is growing.

 

MSC: Sasso makes the case for MSC's growth, disputes pricing alarm (Seatrade Insider)

MSC North America chief, Rick Sasso said, "We need more capacity and we have the momentum to fill [all the new ships].  Some of our competitors have had trouble filling the increased capacity in the Caribbean.  We held our pricing even as the other major brands were heavily discounting last fall and early winter. We eventually had to make our own pricing decisions as well but...we are only a small percentage of Caribbean inventory and their stress and needs were much greater."

Takeaway:  Sasso comments suggest MSC's upcoming new ships may be focused on the North America markets e.g. New York/Miami.

 

RCL - Jorge Vilches Named President and CEO of Pullmantur

Takeaway:  Good leadership change to turn around a struggling brand

INDUSTRY NEWS

Macau Unemployment (DSEC) - The unemployment rate for February-April 2014 was 1.7%

Takeaway:  Low unemployment remains - and many of the 1.7% may be in the underground economy.  Where will the new dealers for Cotai come from?

 

Hong Kong Visitation - (Bloomberg) Mainland Chinese represent 75% of Hong Kong's 54.3 million tourist arrivals in 2013. Recent protests have caused the SAR to consider limiting Mainland tourist arrivals. The city may need measures to “slow the gains in tourist arrivals or stop increases, or cut visitors,” said Hong Kong's Chief Executive Leung. “We’re making studies and will seek feedback.”

Takeaway:  Any curtailing of mainland visitation to Hong Kong will result in a slowdown in retail sales as well as potentially a minor slowdown in Macau visitation as some Mainlanders appear to be accessing Macau via Hong Kong.

 

Chinese Illegal Gaming Crackdown - (Shishi Daily) RMB400 million (US$64 million) of alleged gambling money was seized by the Public Security Police in a raid on a hotel in Fujian province.  The action was the result of information from the public that an illegal casino operation was taking place at night in a “downtown hotel” in Shishi, a county-level coastal city of 300,000 inhabitants in the municipal region of Quanzhou, in southern Fujian province. 

Takeaway: Not relevant to Macau. 

 

Japan Gaming - Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to visit a casino and resort complex in Singapore to assess the facility's economic benefits and effect on society.  Abe will be in Singapore to deliver a keynote speech on May 30 at an annual Asia Security Summit.

Takeaway:  Good for LVS's prospects in Japan

 

Macau Infrastructure - the Light Rapid Transit railway system which was expected to open between 2015 and 2018, appears to be facing major delays.  While the loop serving Taipa and Cotai is expected to be ready by late 2016, the Peninsula portion of the network is experiencing major setbacks and cost overruns. 

Takeaway:  Infrastructure delays have been persistent and not good for an area in desperate need.

  

Cambodia Gaming - Roxy Casino, located in Bavet City, Svay Rieng Province and 200 metres from the border from Cambodia to South Vietnam, re-opened, after undergoing refurbishment and renovation. Roxy Casino features a main gaming hall with 15 gaming tables and eight online gaming tables, plus a premium gaming area with five tables offering high-stake games, slot machines and a sports betting area focused on international football games and will operate 24 hours a day.  The property includes a four-star hotel with 20 rooms and a restaurant. The property is currently part of a reverse-listing process that will see it listed on the Australian stock exchange via a shell company, Cell Aquaculture Ltd.

Takeaway: A new, albeit small competitor for NagaWorld.  

 

Massachusetts Gaming Commission - is seeking a change in the gaming tax structure that would benefit operators. Reportedly the most-discussed change has been eliminating the withholding of taxes each time a $600 or larger jackpot or hand is won.

 

Wisconsin Tribal Gaming - The Menominee Indians disclosed Phase I of the Hard Rock casino, located on the former Dairyland Greyhound Park in Kenosha, would include 2,700 slot machines, 100 table games and 24 poker tables.

Takeaway: Potential competition for Greater Chicagoland gaming dollars. Weezer should be a constant on the play list.

 

Medcruise:  Western med opportunities and challenges (Cruise Industry News)

The Western Mediterranean will continue to see a build-up of capacity, according to cruise line executives speaking at the MedCruise general assembly in Castellon, Spain, May 21 – 23.  2014 is expected to be strong with further growth in 2015, including the Allure of the Seas, and a spike in 2016 with more new ships.  The executives expressed optimism about the economic recovery in North America and noted that Europe was starting to pick up as well and that they are focused on growing their European sourcing.

Takeaway:  The Med has been a bright spot this year.  Expectations will be higher in 2015.

MACRO

Asian Political Tensions - A Chinese vessel rammed and sunk a Vietnamese fishing boat in disputed waters in the South China Sea.

Takeaway: Unrest in Asia continues to concern us.

 

Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye

Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.

 


Post-Memorial Day Mashup

Investment Ideas

The table below lists our current Investment Ideas as well as our Watch List – a list of potential ideas that we are in the process of evaluating.  We intend to update this table regularly and will provide detail on any material changes.

 

Post-Memorial Day Mashup - 1

 

DRI: We’re relegating Darden to the Watch List as a long following the Red Lobster fire sale.  We need to see the majority of senior management and the Board replaced before we can have high-conviction in our bullish thesis.  Starboard will seek to replace the entire Board at the company’s annual meeting later this year and has nominated a highly qualified slate of replacements.  While this may seem unusual and quite aggressive, we firmly believe Starboard could be successful in this attempt.  Until then, however, we’d be cautious as FY14 and FY15 earnings estimates will be revised down and lingering uncertainty could be a drag on the stock. 

Recent Notes

05/19/14  Monday Mashup: Darden Sells Red Lobster

05/20/14  BNNY: Reiterating Short Into Earnings

05/21/14  DRI: Simply Egregious

Events This Week

05/28/14  CBRL Earnings Call 11am EST

05/28/14  DIN Annual General Meeting 12am EST

05/28/14  WEN Annual General Meeting

05/29/14  PLKI Earnings Call 9am EST

05/29/14  CAKE Annual General Meeting 1pm EST

05/29/14  BNNY Earnings Call 5pm EST

05/29/14  RUTH Annual General Meeting

Chart of the Day

DFRG (15.02x TTM EV/EBITDA) two-year same-store sales have been on the decline since 3Q11, yet the fine dining steak chain is up +40.6% over the past year and trades at a substantial premium multiple to its most comparable peer RUTH (9.43x TTM EV/EBITDA).

 

Post-Memorial Day Mashup - 2

Recent News Flow

Monday, May 19th

  • BLMN closed debt refinancing, effectively lowering its interest rate.  The Company expects cash interest savings of approximately $6.0 million in FY14.  The savings from the refinancing will be used primarily to fuel the development of a second concept in Brazil, where Outback Steakhouse has had great success.
  • DRI Barington Capital publicly opposed the Red Lobster sale, citing concerns with the cheap sale price and the highly tax inefficient transaction.  Barington was clearly displeased with the Board, writing: “It is clear to us from the Board’s decision to pursue this imprudent transaction and its horrific record in the area of corporate governance, that Darden’s independent directors are neither focused on, nor responsive to, shareholder concerns.  In over 14 years of investing, we have never seen a group of directors that have allowed a company to be run with such a blatant disregard for shareholder interests.”
  • BWLD announced the opening of a multi-level, 15,000 square foot restaurant in Times Square.
  • DNKN appointed Irene Chang Britt to its Board of Directors.  Ms. Chang Britt is currently President of Pepperidge Farm and serves as Senior Vice President, Global Banking and Snacking for Campbell Soup Company.  Prior to joining Campbell in 2012, she held senior positions with Kraft Foods and Kimberly-Clark.
  • CAKE entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with Maxim’s Caterers  to development at least 14 restaurants over the next 10 years throughout Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China with the potential to expand into Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.  According to the release, the first restaurant will open in FY15.

Tuesday, May 20th

  • DRI Credit Suisse maintained its underperform rating and lowered its PT from $48 to $46 following the Red Lobster transaction.
  • PBPB appointed Susan Chapman-Hughes, current Senior Vice President of U.S. Account Development Global Corporate payments at American Express Company, to its Board of Directors.

Wednesday, May 21st

  • DRI Starboard Value announced its intention to replace Darden’s entire Board of Directors.

Thursday, May 22nd

  • BJRI announced the opening of its newest, 8,500 square foot restaurant in West Palm Beach, Florida.  BJ’s now has 17 restaurants in the state of Florida.

Friday, May 23rd

  • TXRH announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share and increased its share repurchase authorization to $100 million.
  • WEN introduced a new summer-LTO, the Steakhouse Jr. Cheeseburger Deluxe.  According to the release, “The new limited-time cheeseburger boasts a fresh, never frozen beef hamburger patty seasoned with steakhouse seasoning, melty cheese and a creamy garlic aioli sauce made with roasted garlic, onion and Dijon mustard.  The hamburger patty is topped with sliced red onion, hand-cut tomato and hand-leafed lettuce.”  The burger, which is part of the Right Price Right Size Menu, costs $1.49 at participating locations.

US Macro Consumption

The XLY (+2.1%) outperformed the SPX (+1.2%) in a convincing manner last week.  However, both casual dining and quick service stocks, in aggregate, underperformed the broader XLY index.

 

Post-Memorial Day Mashup - 3

 

Post-Memorial Day Mashup - 4

 

The Hedgeye U.S. Consumption Model is signaling bearish for the second week in a row, flashing red on 7 out of 12 metrics.

 

Post-Memorial Day Mashup - 5

XLY Quantitative Setup

From a quantitative perspective, the sector is now bullish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.

 

Post-Memorial Day Mashup - 6

Casual Dining Restaurants

Post-Memorial Day Mashup - 7

 

Post-Memorial Day Mashup - 8

Quick Service Restaurants

Post-Memorial Day Mashup - 9

 

Post-Memorial Day Mashup - 10

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst


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