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LEISURE LETTER (05/13/2014)

Tickers: MGM, PENN, GLPI, SJM, HOT, WYN

EVENTS TO WATCH  

Tuesday, May 13

• SNOW FQ3 earnings – 5pm

• HTHT Q1 earnings – 9pm , Passcode 28722442

 

Nomura Global Gaming & Lodging Conference in New York

• 8am WYN

• 3pm RHP

• 430pm HOT

According to Nomura's website, confirmed companies include: CCL, STAY, GLPI, HLT, HST, MAR, MGM, NCLH, PENN and  Industry Experts: Smith Travel Research, Inc. and International Casino Institute (Japan Gaming)

 

Wells Fargo Gaming Conference in Las Vegas (all times EDT)

• 1140am PNK

• 1220pm IGT

• 1220pm CHDN

• 1pm BYD

• 1pm MGAM

• 140pm PENN

• 225pm BYI

• 505pm SGMS

• 505pm Seminole Gaming

• 550pm GLPI

• 550pm Golden Nugget

1:1 meetings only – MPEL, Station Casino, Motor City Casino & Hotel, and Jacob’s Entertainment.

 

Wednesday, May 14:

Wells Fargo Gaming Conference in Las Vegas (all times EDT)

• 1205pm MCRI and MNTG

• 1250pm MGM

• 135pm ISLE

• Atlantic City April Revenues

• Japan Gaming Conference thru Friday, May 16

 

COMPANY NEWS

SJM – (Macau Business Daily) chief executive Ambrose So Shu Fai thinks state-backed electronic payments system operator China UnionPay Co will curb mass-market gaming revenue in Macau by tightening controls on the use of its cards to obtain cash in Macau. However, the Chief Executive indicated the tightening would not harm SJM Holdings, which focuses on VIP gaming. (Macau Business Daily)

Takeaway: Easy for him to say without the Mass exposure.  We certainly haven't seen any impact yet.  We'll take the other side.


Bloomberry – said it expects double-digit annual growth in gaming volume, as its Solaire Resort & Casino in Manila brings in more high rollers from Asia. Solaire’s VIP gaming area will double following its $500 million expansion to be completed in the fourth quarter

Takeaway:  Bloomberry continues to ramp up but TTM gaming revenue is less than US$500m, hardly anything compared with Macau's $48b annual revenue.  CoD Manila  will contend later in the year, likely around Oct Golden Week.

 

MGM – Massachusetts Gaming Commission is holding a final public host community hearing on the MGM's proposed Springfield Casino project tomorrow at 4pm at the MassMutual Center Ballroom. 

Takeaway: Progress despite a snail's pace while also waiting for a decision regarding the repeal referendum.  


PENN – in a suit filed with the Massachusetts Gaming Commission, Raynham Park owner George Carney requests the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court revoke the slots license the commission issued in February to Penn National. Carney asserts PENN’s casino at Plainridge racetrack would benefit its former owner, Ourway Realty, which was found unsuitable for a license because its former President, Gary Piontkowski, took more than $1 million from the track’s cash room over a 10-year period. Ourway sold the track to PENN, though the lawsuit claims Ourway still holds a financial interest in Plainridge. The suit also alleges that PENN failed to disclose Ourway’s stake in Plainridge to state gaming regulators.  The commission awarded the slots license to Penn National in March on a 3-2 vote, with Raynham Park getting no votes. 

Takeaway: Could delay the project.  Stay tuned, we're researching the issue.


PENN/GLPI – The Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission upheld its decision to close the Argosy Sioux City riverboat casino by July 1. The commission on Monday quietly turned down a request from Penn National Gaming, Argosy's parent, to rehear a protracted case involving the gambling boat's state license.

Takeaway: As expected, but we now await PENN's next salvo in this battle of words and dollars.

 

HOT – Director Thomas O. Ryder sold 22,653 shares of HOT stock in a transaction dated Friday, May 9th, at an average price of $78.74, for a total value of $1,783,697.22. Following the completion of the sale, the Mr. Ryder directly owns 3,100 shares in the company, valued at approximately $244,094

Takeaway:  First signs of insider selling following the share repurchase announcement.  

 

WYN (Skift) launched its 1st multi-brand television advertising campaign featuring all 12 of its lodging brands.  

Takeaway: Stay tuned, we look forward to hearing the cost-benefit analysis conversations on the Q2 earnings call about this campaign.  Historically, multi-brand, non-differentiated advertising campaigns don't result in an increased immediate consumer awareness. 

 

TUI Travel – Current trading outlook:

  • Overall, pleased with Summer 2014 trading with 60% of holidays sold to date 
  • Higher average prices across Mainstream offsetting slightly lower 
    overall volumes against strong comparatives 
  • Excellent online performance – bookings up 6% on prior year

Takeaway:  Holiday travel provider TUI offers a decent outlook for the UK/Europe leisure market

INDUSTRY NEWS

New York Gaming Expansion – according to details released by New York's Gaming Facility Location Board, developers proposing to build a casino in Orange or Dutchess counties must commit to investing at least $350 million in the project, while the Capital region minimum investment is $135 million and the Lower Tier region requirements span $70 million to $135 million depending on location and number of licenses.

Takeaway: Based on our math, it would appear New York will generate $720 million in licensing fees should the Commission seek to "maximize" licensing fees to the State of New York - representing one casino in Orange or Dutchess counties, one license in Columbia, Delaware, Greene, Sullivan and Ulster Counties, one license in the Capital Region, and one license in Wayne or Seneca Counties.

  

UnionPay – New reports across China indicate US technology company Apple is likely to incorporate a near field communication payment function in the net generation iPhone and has reached an agreement with China UnionPay on a mobile payment service. According to the Brightware report,"Under the deal with China UnionPay, users would be able to download the bank card organization’s app to Passbook in their iPhones and make mobile payments on over three million China UnionPay ‘QuickPass’ POS machines in China,”

Takeaway:  We added this story as proof to the skeptics who don't believe in the legitimacy of UnionPay.

 

Slot Equipment Merger – American Gaming Systems ("AGS"), a leading designer and manufacturer of Class II gaming machines for the Native American market with an emerging presence in a broad range of commercial Class III markets in the United States, today announced their acquisition of Colossal Gaming. As of December 31, 2013, AGS had 8,563 gaming machines in 184 gaming facilities in 19 U.S. states, with 154 gaming facilities under revenue sharing agreements and 30 facilities under daily fixed fee agreements. Colossal Gaming was founded in 2003 by industry veterans Steve Weiss, Alison Stroh, and Lowell Hansen, as a game design studio with the mission to bring new and unique game play to the industry. Colossal is a pioneer in large-format slot gaming, and the designer and manufacturer of the top performing games "Hot at the Top" and "Colossal Diamonds".

Takeaway:  Small slot players joining forces 

MACRO

China Property - China Banking Regulatory Commission instructs banks to accelerate personal mortgage loan approvals and not suspend mortgage loans. 

 

China Economic Data - Industrial Production for April was 8.7%, below the 8.9% consensus estimate, April retail sales were +11.9% below the 12.2% consensus, and Fixed Asset Investment was +17.3% vs. expectations of 17.7% for April.

 

Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US. 


The Monster

This note was originally published at 8am on April 29, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“The monster is trying to kill me, but I will kill it.”

-Andrew Jackson

 

That sounds pretty hard core; especially coming from the President of the United States!

 

“The Monster, formally known as the Second Bank of The United States (and more commonly as the Bank), originated as the brain child of Alexander Hamilton… Jackson saw himself in arms against the dragon, an infernal, demonic entity that must be destroyed.” (The First Tycoon, pg 93)

 

The Monster - jackson bank monster

 

And you thought I was bearish on the un-elected and un-accountable US Federal Reserve. As I was flying from Indianapolis, IN to Minneapolis, MN last night reading this, I pulled the Delta Airlines polyester red blanket up to my chin and asked the flight attendant for cookies and milk.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

#ScaryMonster, this US Policy To Inflate has become. The more I travel and talk this through with investors, the less convinced most are that this ends well. There’s no irony in that. Unless it’s “different this time”, burning the credibility of a country’s currency has never worked, for any country.

 

If I’m right and 2014 US GDP growth (real, not nominal) is closer to 1-2% than the 3-4% consensus economists and perma bulls alike are expecting, I think the societal side to this risk starts to kick in. That’s because what gets us to 1-2% is #InflationAccelerating. And nothing kills The People’s confidence more than a government that they think is lying to them.

 

In 1832… so began the Bank War; the result of not merely Jackson’s obsessions, but the cultural crisis of the times. It broke out because two great waves now crashed into one another: the individualistic, anti-aristocratic, competitive impulse fostered by the Revolution, and the instinct to organize, amalgamate, develop, and bring order to the chaos of the marketplace.”

 

Sound familiar?

 

Indeed, out of this conflict would emerge a new American economic outlook; a culture that embraced equality of opportunity and fierce competition, as well as sophisticated business institutions.” (The First Tycoon, pg 95)

 

Sophisticated about applying chaos theory and non-linear risk analytics to their linear models, the Fed and Old Wall Street are not. I think they might be getting dumber (see Bank of America (BAC) yesterday, who had to report that they miscounted the moneys, again!).

 

That’s one of the reasons why the Financials (XLF) got tagged for a -0.6% loss yesterday (with the SP500 +0.3% on the day). What’s happening out there at both the sector and style factoring levels of the market is crystal clear – it’s called variance:

  1. Variance rises during market phase transitions (i.e. from US #GrowthAccelerating in 2013 to inflation slowing growth in 2014)
  2. Variance plummets when you can literally buy anything (because everything goes up)

For the US stock market, the so-easy-a-monkey-can-do-it (low-variance) environment ended on December 31, 2013. Here’s what I mean by that if you look at the variance in yesterday’s US stock market move:

  1. Financials (XLF) -0.6%
  2. Biotech (IBB) -0.4%
  3. Russell2000 (IWM) -0.4%

Versus:

  1. #YieldChasing Consumer Staples (XLP) +1.1%
  2. Slow-growth-yield chasing Utilities (XLU) +0.5%
  3. Energy #InflationAccelerating (XLE) +0.2%

That’s why I said it in my investor meetings yesterday in Indy and I’ll say it again in Minneapolis to long-only risk managers today – if you want to be invested alongside our 2014 Macro Themes, you:

  1. Buy Inflation (XLE, DBA, COW, CAFÉ, TIP, etc.)
  2. Buy Slow-Growth Yield Chasing (XLU, TLT, BND, etc.)
  3. Buy late cycle companies that can jam customers with pricing (VNQ, XLI, etc.)

If you are a Global Investor, this gets a lot easier – mainly because you can not only be long US #InflationAccelerating but you can buy countries who are doing the right thing from a protecting-the-purchasing-power-of-the-people (read: #StrongCurrency) perspective.

 

At the top of that list is the UK:

  1. The British Pound continues to pound the pig that is the US Dollar (GBP +10% vs USD in the last 6 months)
  2. UK GDP Growth for Q114 was reported +3.1% y/y this morning – a fresh new #GrowthAccelerating high

The Monster - Chart of the Day

 

Newsflash: the UK had the “weather” too. They just don’t have to blame the weather in order to CTA (substitute T for Y) on why almost every one of them (consensus economists from Old Wall and Washington) had their Q114 US growth forecast dead wrong.

 

Sadly, tomorrow the United States of America will report a GDP growth rate for the 1st quarter that is maybe 1/2 of what the United Kingdom just did. Sure, you’ll have month-end markups in the US stock market … and the Fed will release their 2nd or 3rd coming of Christ…

 

But once that storytelling is done with, Americans will go back to eating it – the Policy to Inflate, that is. And if we don’t have the courage to kill this broken and un-elected US economic policy, The Monster  of a devalued currency might just eat us too.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now as follows:

 

Nasdaq 4006-4143

USD 79.21-79.99

Pound 1.67-1.69

Natural Gas 4.55-4.81

Gold 1280-1310

Corn 5.05-5.19

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer



Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

Looney Tune Tape

“Mister Wabbit, before you die, you can have one wast wish.”

-Elmer Fudd

 

Was the wast wish to buy in May and pray? They dressed ole Elmer up in a Canadian Mountie uniform for that episode. When the US stock market won’t die, blame a Canadian. Must abandon risk management process and chase the performance wabbit, right?

 

Uh, no. Stay with what’s been working all year – #InflationAccelerating and slow-growth #YieldChasing assets (like commodities, bonds, and any stock that looks like a bond with low-beta and high-dividend-yield).

 

And on the short side, take your time and “be vewwy, vewwy quiet…” I’m hunting high-muwtipoh-momentum-bubbo wabbits that have popped back up out of their bombed out holes.

 

Looney Tune Tape - PeLooney8002

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

“Wisten to the wippling wythm of the woodwinds…” and you’ll hear volume cwickets.

 

Yesterday’s total US Equity Volume reading was:

 

  1. -10% versus the 1 month average
  2. -31% versus the 3 month average

 

In other words, other than emotional hedge funds that shorted last week’s lows in almost every oversold momentum short (we sent out cover signals in IWM, ITB, YELP, last week #timestamped) there was no legitimate volume (read: conviction) behind yesterday’s rip.

 

In fact, going into the open yesterday:

 

  1. The net short position in SPX (Index + E-mini) was at a 6 month high of -54,587 contracts
  2. Three months ago (when you could have bought #MoBro top), the net short position was -30,429 contracts

 

“So”, many hedge funds were getting squeezed yesterday and those that still believe US GDP growth is going to be +3-4% in 2014 just kept averaging down into growth stocks, I guess.

 

While CNBC was nailing it with the Dow “at all-time-highs” yesterday, we sent out a short DIA (Dow ETF) signal in #RealTimeAlerts. But that’s not the best short idea we have – it’s waiting on the stocks that have been smoked to pop back up to our signal lines (YELP, TWTR, etc).

 

Don’t forget that the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are still -4.9% and -6.2%, respectively, from where your broker could have plugged you buying the all-time-bubble-stock-high in early March. Most of these momentum, social, and housing stocks are still broken.

 

“Dwat that wabbit”

 

Yep, both the bond and currency market agree this morning:

 

  1. US Dollar Index is nowhere near overcoming its long-term TAIL risk line of $81.17 resistance
  2. US 10 year Treasury Yield of 2.65% couldn’t care less about people chasing performance wabbits in equities

 

“So”, if you have to buy something this morning, what do you buy?

 

  1. Utilities (XLU +10.3% YTD) have pulled back and are registering another buy signal
  2. Gold (GLD +7.3% YTD) has pulled back small and is a buy closer to TREND line support of $1271

 

And, what do you sell?

 

  1. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.3% YTD) has rallied on no volume to lower highs, so keep selling that
  2. US Dollar (UUP -0.2% YTD) has rallied sharply off its YTD lows, and remains bearish TREND

 

Yep, it’s really a macro call. Get the US Dollar and Rates right, and you’ll keep getting your Sector & Style Factors right. If you disagree with our view, you should be buying Dollars and growth stocks and shorting Bonds (like we did at this time last year) in size.

 

If you ask most consensus economists if they had the process to have you in the opposite this year as you were in last year (from an asset allocation perspective), they might go all-American-excuse-making Elmer on you too… “Yes! I mean NO, that is… I…. er… um…”

 

Looney Tune Tape, this has become. Chasing performance is not a repeatable risk management process. No worries though, I am sure the cartoon that this has all become will end willy willy well.

 

UST 10yr yield 2.57-2.67%

SPX 1

RUT 1094-1144

VIX 12.14-14.52

USD 79.11-80.01

EUR/USD 1.37-1.39


Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Looney Tune Tape - Chart of the Day


May 13, 2014

May 13, 2014 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

May 13, 2014 - Slide2

May 13, 2014 - Slide3

May 13, 2014 - Slide4

May 13, 2014 - Slide5

May 13, 2014 - Slide6

 

BEARISH TRENDS

May 13, 2014 - Slide7

May 13, 2014 - Slide8

May 13, 2014 - Slide9

May 13, 2014 - Slide10

May 13, 2014 - Slide11


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

 TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 13, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or 1.35% downside to 1871 and 0.12% upside to 1899.                                              

                                                                                 

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10A

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.25 from 2.27
  • VIX closed at 12.23 1 day percent change of -5.34%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 12:30am: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Business, April, est. 94.5 (prior 93.4)
  • 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales, April, est. 0.4% (prior 1.1%, rev. 1.2%)
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index, April, est. 0.3% (prior 0.6%)
  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
  • 10am: Business Inventories, March, est. 0.4% (prior 0.4%)
  • 10:30am: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Charlotte, North Carolina
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • House out of session, Senate in
    • 9:30am: Brookings holds discussion on “The Future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac” with FHFA Director Mel Watt
    • 10am: Senate Agriculture Cmte hearing on high-frequency;  witnesses incl. CFTC head of mkt oversight Vince McGonagle, CME’s Terrence Duffy
    • 10am: United States Energy Assn holds discussion on North American LNG exports
    • 10am: Commerce Sec. Penny Pritzker on Natl Export Initiative at Atlantic Media HQ
    • 12pm  Alliance for American Manufacturing on steel import report w/Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Jeff Sessions, R-Ala.
    • 12:45pm: Resources for the Future holds discussion with Exelon CEO Chris Crane
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Cong. Dist. Income Inequality; Crisco Dies

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Pfizer said to plan raising AstraZeneca bid for second time
  • Pfizer CEO to make AstraZeneca case to U.K. parliament
  • FHFA Director Mel Watt speaks on GSEs at Brookings
  • AT&T is said in advanced talks to buy DirecTV for ~$50b
  • China industrial production, investment show slowdown deepening
  • Ukraine rebels ask to join Russia as Gazprom threatens a cutoff
  • KKR eyes Spanish banks, may seek role managing bad bank assets
  • Lockhart says Fed weighs role of funds rate amid stimulus exit
  • Facebook said to take steps to open a sales office in China
  • 2 former Qualcomm sales directors charged with insider trading
  • German investor confidence drops for 5th month on growth risks
  • Airbus earnings beat estimates as costs on A380 come down
  • RBS’s U.S. unit Citizens files for $100m IPO in New York
  • Bloomberg Canada Economic Summit
  • Neb., W.Va. hold primaries

AM EARNS:

    • Convergys (CVG) 8:30am, $0.29
    • CST Brands (CST) 7am, $0.19
    • Encana (ECA CN) 6am, $0.53 - Preview
    • First Majestic Silver (FR CN) 7am, $0.10
    • Insys Therapeutics (INSY) 7am, $0.27
    • Resolute Energy (REN) 6am, ($0.01)
    • RioCan Real Estate Investment (REI-U CN) 7am, C$0.42

PM EARNS:

    • Element Financial (EFN CN) 5:06pm, C$0.10
    • Finning International (FTT CN) 4:32pm, C$0.41
    • Fossil Group (FOSL) 4:01pm, $1.17
    • Legacy Oil (LEG CN) Aft-Mkt, C$0.09
    • Renren (RENN) 6pm, $0.05
    • Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) 4:05pm, $0.09
    • URS (URS) 4:05pm, $0.69
    • Wix.com (WIX) Aft-Mkt, ($0.36)

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Nickel Nears Resistance That May Spur Drop Before Further Rally
  • WTI Crude Reaches Two-Week High on Supply Forecast; Brent Climbs
  • Tire Rubber Plunging as Vietnam Tappers Expand Glut: Commodities
  • Copper Trades Below Two-Month High as China Factories Slow Down
  • Wheat Heads for Longest Decline This Year on Ample Global Supply
  • Gold Declines as Improving U.S. Economy to Dollar Cuts Demand
  • Sugar Advances as Rainfall Forecast for Brazil; Cocoa Also Rises
  • Rebar in Shanghai Falls to Record Low on Steel Output Increase
  • Soybean Imports by China Seen Recovering as Fish Farms Buy Feed
  • Libya Oil Output May Double as Protests in Western Region End
  • Ukraine Boosts Russian Gas Imports as Gazprom Deadline Looms
  • Russian Pork Imports Fell 34% This Year Through May 5 After Ban
  • LNG May be Europe’s Future Fuel If Shale Fails: Outlook
  • Mexico Oil Opening May Be Foreigners’ Gusher as Pemex Struggles

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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