TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 8, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 0.92% downside to 1861 and 0.63% upside to 1890.
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
WHAT TO WATCH:
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
The Hedgeye Macro Team
Takeaway: It's been tough sledding for TWTR bulls.
Twitter shares got totally shellacked yesterday, dropping almost 18% after its IPO lock-up period ended. Shares finished trading around $32. Today hasn't fared much better for Twitter bulls with shares off around 4%. TWTR is down a remarkable 27% over the last five trading days.
We wanted to know where you thought shares were headed next. So we asked your opinion in today’s poll: What’s the next stop for Twitter? $22/share or $42/share?
At the time of this post, 55% said Twitter will soon be trading at $22; 45% said $42.
Of the majority who said trading would drop to $22/share, voters had these diverse explanations:
Here’s what some voters who think Twitter shares are headed to $42/share next (if not more) had to say:
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Takeaway: We will be hosting a call titled KSS Short: Why JCP is the Risk (And Opportunity) on Tuesday May 13th at 1pm ET.
We will be hosting a call titled KSS Short: Why JCP is the Risk (And Opportunity) on Tuesday, May 13th at 1:00pm ET to discuss our current short thesis on KSS. We will detail some of the underappreciated dynamics that currently exist between Kohl's and JCP.
HIGHLIGHTS WILL INCLUDE:
A) Results of our latest consumer survey on department stores
B) Explore incremental trends in e-commerce
C) A deep dive into each company's real estate profile examining where the greatest risk/opportunity exists for store closure and subsequent share shifts
SPECIFIC TOPICS WILL INCLUDE:
Takeaway: Whether or not you believe in the validity of these straw polls, it’s hard to ignore the opinion of 10,000+ people.
This is a snap of a poll we found on Canada's Globe and Mail site. Whether or not you believe in the validity of these straw polls, it’s hard to ignore the opinion of 10,000+ people. A quick note on the sample, we stress-tested the system to see if we could vote multiple times (which would therefore inflate the negative sentiment) - but, no dice. These results seem like they're for real.
It's particularly interesting that those who say they will miss Target in Canada totals 11%. Given that 11% of Canadian citizens had shopped at a Target in the US in the 12 months prior to Canada's opening it leads us to believe that a good chunk of the 11% who say they will miss TGT Canada were already established US shoppers.
To us this means that 1) Target Canada has yet to establish meaningful brand equity outside of its carry over customers from the US, and 2) customers missing Target in Canada is mostly a function of convenience.
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Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research excerpt from Hedgeye Retail sector head Brian McGough. Follow McGough on Twitter @HedgeyeRetail.
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