LEISURE LETTER (04/30/2014)



Wednesday, April 30

  • PNK Q1 – 8 am , Passcode: 27759612
  • GLPI Q1 – 9 am
  • MGAM Q1 – 9am
    MAR Q1 – 10 am , Passcode: 10575194
  • H Q1 – 11:30 am , Passcode:  11561402
  • BYD Q1 – 5 pm , Passcode:  44440004

Thursday, May 1

  • HST Q1 – 10 am
  • OEH Q1 – 10 am , Passcode: 22074904
  • FCH Q1 – 12 pm , Passcode: 28469900
  • WYNN Q1 – 430pm , Passcode:  17666834
  • BYI FQ3 – 4:30 pm
  • EXPE Q1 – 4:30 pm

Friday, May 2

  • April Employment Report
  • HT Q1 – 9 am , Passcode: 1398938

Tuesday, May 6

  • RHP Q1 – 10 am , Passcode: 25122491
  • SHO Q1 – 12 pm
  • TRIP Q1 – 4:30 pm
  • DIS FQ2 – 5 pm , Passcode: 36995300

Wednesday, May 7

  • STAY Q1 – 8:30 am


BYD – COO Paul Chakmak featured in a Executive Profile Q&A article in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. 

Takeaway: Would BYD allow an article to run this week if the company were going to "miss" earnings expectations tonight?


WYNN – announced it has reached "surrounding community" agreements with Cambridge and Medford and "neighboring community" agreements with Lynn and Melrose. The communities join Malden, which entered into a "surrounding community" agreement with Wynn in 2013. The announcement comes as the gaming commission is set to hold a public hearing May 1 on Boston's bid to be designated a "host community" for Wynn's proposed Everett casino and Mohegan Sun's proposed casino in Revere

Takeaway: Additional steps in the development process.


Suffolk OTB -will attempt to sell $90 million in bonds to finance their land acquisition and construction of a 1,000 slot casino and $65 million facility.

Takeway: widely discussed, but timing and subsequent opening seems faster than anticipated.


California Internet Poker - we've read an increasing amount of commentary that while internet poker is a low probability event this year, 2015 is looking significantly more likely as 2015 is a non-election year.

Takeaway: Given the strains on tax revenue, California needs to be creative in generating additional revenues - away from personal income taxes.  This is obviously an important market given the population. Operators that can secure the players here will have a leg up as internet poker goes interstate.


Philippines Gaming - Travellers International Hotel Group Inc. said it received approval from PAGCOR to expand its gaming area within the 11.5-hectare leisure and resort complex Resorts World Manila in Pasay City. The expansion of the gaming capacity would increase the number of gaming tables to 420 from 287 as of end-2013 and also double the number of gaming machines at Resorts World to 4,148 from 2,030 as of end-2013.  Phase 2 is expected to be completed by September 2015.

Takeaway: The buildout of the Philippines continues.


Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.






7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more