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Cartoon of the Day: 1,000 Years

Takeaway: The U.S. housing market is going downhill (just when many economists thought annual sales would be heading up.)

Cartoon of the Day: 1,000 Years - Housing 04.25.2014

 

From Hedgeye's Q2 Macro Themes:

 

#HousingsSlowdown:  We have been big housing bulls over the last 18 months. But the party is ending. Asymmetry in being long has flattened.   Price follows demand on a lag and demand is slowing as affordability declines, regulatory changes drag on liquidity, and institutional interest ebbs.  We will walk through our updated view on the Supply/Demand/Price dynamics prevailing in the housing market and our forward outlook for prices. 

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Video | McCullough to Bartiromo: Europe Is a Better Place to Be Than U.S.

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares his views on European markets with Maria Bartiromo, host of Fox Business' Opening Bell.


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Video | McCullough: Tread Carefully In This Market, Particularly In the Nasdaq

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses some concerns he has about the market right now with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on "Opening Bell."

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Video | McCullough to Bartiromo: $400 Amazon? More Like $200

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough talks tech stocks with Maria Bartiromo, host of Fox Business' Opening Bell.

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Under Armour: Brand Heat Has A Price | $UA

Takeaway: UA could not afford even the slightest blemish this quarter, unfortunately.

Under Armour: Brand Heat Has A Price | $UA - ua kevin plank

 

Here are some key takeaways from a research note that was originally sent to subscribers on April 24, 2014 by Hedgeye Retail sector head Brian McGough. Follow McGough on Twitter @HedgeyeRetail.

Key Takeaways

  • Not the quarter a 50-times multiple needed. We remain confident that this company will double – at least – over 5-years. But will continue to spend heavily to achieve that goal.
  • One thing we’ve got to give UA regardless of margin trajectory – this management team is as focused as any we know.
  • Overall, it was a great quarter for Under Armour when viewed in isolation.  Unfortunately, the market does not view things in isolation – nor do we.
  • People obviously did not love UA’s guidance for the upcoming year. UA beat by $43mm in revenue, but only took up full-year guidance by $40mm.
  • There was something about CEO and founder Kevin Plank today on the call that seemed exceptionally mature, seasoned, focused, and not only a great Brand ambassador (which he’s always been) but a flat-out solid leader for Under Armour.

Under Armour: Brand Heat Has A Price | $UA - UA sigma large

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Poll of the Day: Putin's Effect on Oil Prices

“[Vladimir] Putin gets paid in Petro Dollars,” CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today’s Morning Newsletter. “I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to solve the aforementioned trifecta of sovereign risk (Russian CDS up to 282 bps wide now – a 2 yr high) by firing up the geopolitical risk news flow.”

 

What’s your prediction?


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