Hedgeye's Macro Team will be hosting our highly-anticipated Quarterly Macro Themes conference call today at 11:00am EDT. Led by CEO Keith McCullough, the presentation will detail the three most important macro trends we have identified for the quarter and related investment opportunities.
- Toll Free Number:
- Direct Dial Number:
- Conference Code: 212497#
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Q2 2014 MACRO THEMES OVERVIEW
- #ConsumerSlowing: The cyclical increase in consumer spending growth from the 2009 lows is under pressure. Rising food prices and a stagnating USD continue to squeeze average Americans on the margin. Given the potential for further USD depreciation and a continuation of global commodity inflation as a real macro risk, we think U.S. consumption growth will slow as it bumps up against difficult compares heading into 2Q and beyond.
- #StructuralInflation: Following up on our cyclical #InflationAccelerating theme, we are focusing now on structural inflationary pressures embedded in the U.S. economy. Much like in Japan, zero percent interest rate policy has fueled a broad-based portfolio re-balancing away from financing economic growth to reach for additional yield in slow-growth assets. This is fueling systemic underinvestment in both human and physical capital. However (unlike in Japan), the USD's long-term downward trend adds an additional layer of inflationary pressure due to an increased reliance on imported goods and services amid capacity constraints abroad.
- #HousingsSlowdown: We have been big housing bulls over the last 18 months. But the party is ending. Asymmetry in being long has flattened. Price follows demand on a lag and demand is slowing as affordability declines, regulatory changes drag on liquidity, and institutional interest ebbs. We will walk through our updated view on the Supply/Demand/Price dynamics prevailing in the housing market and our forward outlook for prices.