prev

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 4, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or 1.10% downside to 1868 and 0.54% upside to 1899.                                 

                                                                                              

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.34 from 2.34
  • VIX closed at 13.37 1 day percent change of 2.14%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, March, est. 200k (pr 175k)
  • Unemployment Rate, March., est. 6.6% (prior 6.7%)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama meets with Tunisian Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa
    • Secretary of State John Kerry on trip to Morocco
    • FY15 budget panels/testimony:
    • 9am: House Appropriations hears from Attorney General Eric Holder on Justice Dept. request
    • 10:30am: House Armed Svcs hearing on FY15 budget request for intelligence activities
    • Deadline for EPA employees to take up option to retire early, take buyout worth up to $25k
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Rogers, Camp Retirements to Test Boehner

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Employers probably boosted pace of U.S. hiring for 3rd month
  • IMS Health prices IPO of 65m shrs at $20/shr
  • GrubHub sells 7.41m shrs at $26/shr in IPO
  • Meda chairman confirms prelim. Mylan contact, Direkt reports
  • Lenovo-IBM deal under U.S. scrutiny over Pentagon server use
  • Jennifer Lopez-Backed NuvoTV said in deal to buy MSG’s Fuse TV
  • Apple loses patent-use bid in $2b Samsung Trial
  • Bank of America discussing $800m settlement with CFPB: DJ
  • Delta may buy as many as 50 new wide-body jets: WSJ
  • Boeing considers buying supplier Mercury Systems: Reuters
  • Liberty Global unit eyes German stores amid O2, E-Plus merger
  • GE chooses H.K. for aircraft leasing co.’s $700m IPO: IFR
  • German Feb. factory orders beat est.
  • JPMorgan folds London Whale investment office into another unit
  • RBS names Credit Suisse’s Stevenson CFO
  • IMF Meeting, Fed, China Exports, Ally IPO: Wk Ahead April 5-12

EARNINGS:

    • CarMax (KMX) 7:35am, $0.54
    • Synergy Resources (SYRG) 6am, $0.09

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Aluminum Heads for Biggest Weekly Advance Since November 2012
  • WTI Crude Rises a Second Day Before U.S. Data; Brent Advances
  • Wheat Fields See Worst Damage in Five Years on Drought to Freeze
  • Drones Portend High-Tech Future for Dangerous Mines: Commodities
  • Port Hedland Iron Ore Shipments to China Reach Record on Demand
  • Wheat Set for Biggest Weekly Drop Since January on Rain in U.S.
  • India’s Gold Imports Said to More Than Double in March From Feb.
  • Robusta Coffee Rises After 23% Stockpiles Draw; Cocoa Advances
  • Rebar in Shanghai Rises for 2nd Week on Iron Ore, China Policy
  • Coffee Exports From India Dropping as Rains Shrink Harvest
  • World’s Biggest Coal Terminal to Review 2015 Goal on Power Cut
  • Pollution Traders Bullish as Europe Squeezes Permit Glut: Energy
  • Gazprom 81% Ukraine Gas Price Surge May Open Door for RWE, PGNiG
  • Gold Prices Pare Weekly Decline in London Before U.S. Jobs Data

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



April 4, 2014

April 4, 2014 - Slide1 

BULLISH TRENDS

April 4, 2014 - Slide2

April 4, 2014 - Slide3

April 4, 2014 - Slide4

April 4, 2014 - Slide5

April 4, 2014 - Slide6 

BEARISH TRENDS

April 4, 2014 - Slide7

April 4, 2014 - Slide8

April 4, 2014 - Slide9

April 4, 2014 - Slide10

April 4, 2014 - Slide11
April 4, 2014 - Slide12


real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

Video | McCullough: Another Reason Why This Market May Be Done Going Up

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough spoke with Fox Business' Liz Claman earlier today about why investors should be concerned about recent equity and bond flows.


Poll of the Day Recap: Don’t Trust Uncle Sam’s Inflation Numbers

Who hasn’t felt “breakfast sticker shock” in recent weeks with the price of coffee, pork, and bacon all on the rise? Fact: food prices have surged in 2014. The CRB Foodstuffs Index? It’s up almost 20% year-to-date and up 7.5% year-over-year. But according to the government, inflation remains muted.

 

So, what we wanted to know in today’s poll is, Do you trust the U.S. government’s inflation numbers? 

 

Apparently there’s not a whole lot of trust out there.

 

At the time of this post, a staggering 87.5% responded NO; 12.5% said YES.


(Voters sharply swung so much in one way, that we didn’t receive any comments on why people voted YES.)

 

Here’s a sampling of some of the responses we received:

  • "When an entity has both the incentive to manipulate reality and all the tools to affect change, no good can come from that situation. Ever."
  • "First, the methodology for calculating "official" inflation is flawed beyond credibility. Second, the government has a vested interest in the inflation game, so their numbers are suspect… Finally, a trip to the grocery store, the gas pump, or the doctor's office puts the lie to all of the official numbers. The only real question remaining, then, is how does this Fed/Treasury/Government/Old Wall Street game play out? How does it end? Accelerated inflation? Inflation then deflation? The real markets running away from Fed control?"
  • "The government bastardized (most governments on the planet) this statistic long ago to save money, control sentiment (Propaganda) and create their own reality.  It takes about one brain cell to see this after watching their actions for 30 years.  They are scared stiff of people thinking the 1970's could happen all over again or something similar. Too late, the deed has been done and nothing can stop the ‘momo’ so brace yourself to pay the price over the next few years, maybe next few decades."
  • "I don't think that the government is using an adequate measure of inflation. In my world I see wage stagflation and price appreciation specifically on government run agencies and utilities.  Purchasing power is decreasing daily."
  • "It is probably not possible to measure inflation accurately and one would have to be naïve to see the motivation to under report.  Why does the bond market believe it?"

SUBSCRIBE TO HEDGEYE.


Want a Haircut & Fries With Your Skinny Jeans? | $URBN

Takeaway: What is Urban Outfitters doing? Building palaces?

Want a Haircut & Fries With Your Skinny Jeans? | $URBN - conan jeggingsext 640x360 120220101049 0

 

Urban Outfitters Moves Into Space Ninety 8

  • "With 37,000 square feet on four levels and a directive from chief executive officer Richard Hayne to come up with new ideas, the barriers in some ways were lifted."
     
  • "The non-traditional retail experience, as the company refers to the space, features a strong food component. The Gorbals Restaurant and Bar, operated by Ilan Hall, 'Top Chef' and host of Esquire TV’s 'Knife Fight,' will be in residence on the third floor. Hauser said food will also play a role in the 57,000-square-foot Urban Outfitters flagship opening in Herald Square in June, which will have a coffee shop, hair salon and eyeglass shop. Urban Outfitters’ Fifth Avenue flagship recently added a coffee bar."
    Want a Haircut & Fries With Your Skinny Jeans? | $URBN - 1

Takeaway From Hedgeye’s Brian McGough:

We’re not really sure we understand what’s going on with Urban Outfitters’ new prototypes. A coffee shop? That could work. But restaurants and hair salons? That’s a bit much—if not borderline alarming. How many tourists are looking for a fresh trim when shopping for skinny jeans in Herald Square? Urban Outfitters is looking at new categories as growth drivers. We get it. But it sounds like the brand is running out of things to put in these enormous boxes that are 4-5 times bigger than the typical footprint. We'd rather they keep the boxes a bit smaller, and put more focus on what's inside.

 

Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research excerpt from Hedgeye Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. Follow Brian on Twitter @HedgeyeRetail

Subscribe to Hedgeye.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.49%
next