THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 25, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 38 points or 0.94% downside to 1840 and 1.11% upside to 1878.                       

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.30 from 2.30
  • VIX closed at 15.09 1 day percent change of 0.60%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am  ICSC weekly retail sales
  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 9am: House Price Index m/m, Jan., est. 0.6% (prior 0.8%)
  • 9am: S&P/Case Shiller Home Price report
  • 20 City m/m, Jan., est. 0.60% (prior 0.76%)
  • 10am: Consumer Confidence, March, est. 78.5 (prior 78.1)
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufacturing, March, est. 4 (prior -6)
  • 10am: New Home Sales, Feb., est. 445k (prior 468k)
  • 4pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Atlanta
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories
  • 7pm: Fed’s Plosser speaks in New York

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama holds press conference in Netherlands while attending Nuclear Security Summit
    • House Foreign Affairs Cmte will take up H.R. 4278, which offers support to Ukraine, codifies sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian individuals deemed corrupt, responsible for crisis
    • Supreme Court may issue opinions, hears religious exemption arguments for cos. re: Obamacare contraceptive mandate
    • 8am: Peter Visclosky, D-Ind., U.S. Steel CEO Mario Longhi at Congressional Steel Caucus state of steel industry hearing
    • FY2015 budget hearings/panels:
    • 10am: Senate Foreign Relations Cmte: Sec. of State John Kerry
    • 10am: House Armed Svcs Cmte: Army Sec. John McHugh, Chief of Staff Raymond Odierno
    • 10am House Approps panel: Navy Sec. Ray Mabus, Chief of Naval Ops Jonathan Greenert, Marine Corps Commandant James Amos
    • 1:30pm: House Appropriations panel: Interior Sec. Sally Jewell
    • 2pm: House Appropriations panel: Federal Communications Commission Chairman Tom Wheeler and Commissioner Ajit Pai
    • 10am: Lithuanian Energy Minister Jaroslav Neverovic expected to request at Senate Energy Cmte hearing to speed opening of LNG exports from U.S. to NATO members
    • 1:30pm: House Energy and Commerce subcmte on energy and power to hold hearing on H.R. 6, designed to speed natural gas exports to WTO countries
    • U.S. Election Wrap: Nate Silver Says GOP May Take Senate

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Russia excluded from G-8 as leaders warn of more sanctions
  • Senate Republicans seek to void IMF money in Ukraine aid package
  • Candy Crush maker King Digital seeks $533m in IPO
  • German business confidence falls for first time in 5 months
  • Sanofi said to join bidders for Merck’s consumer-health unit
  • GM recall accused of missing Cobalts with faulty switch
  • GM CEO to testify before Congressional panel on recall
  • Senate, House cmtes examine intl energy trade, LNG exports
  • Vivendi is said to seek improved SFR bid from Drahi’s Altice
  • Lawmakers said to agree on ending NSA phone-records program
  • SEC probing bond dealings by banks in loan securities: WSJ
  • Google Glass products coming from Ray-Ban, Oakley Maker
  • Box files to raise $250m in cloud-storage shr sale
  • Brazil’s credit rating cut to BBB- by S&P on sluggish growth

EARNINGS:

    • Carnival (CCL) 9:15am, ($0.08) - Preview
    • Five Below (FIVE) 4:01pm, $0.45
    • G-III Apparel (GIII) 7am, $0.49
    • HD Supply Holdings (HDS) 6am, ($0.03)
    • Legacy Oil + Gas (LEG CN) post-mkt, C$0.02
    • McCormick (MKC) 6:30am, $0.58
    • Neogen (NEOG) 8:45am, $0.18
    • PVH (PVH) 4:02pm, $1.42
    • Steelcase (SCS) 4:01pm, $0.17
    • Walgreen (WAG) 7:30am, $0.93 - Preview

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Rebounds From One-Month Low as Ukraine Concern Spurs Demand
  • WTI Reaches $100 Before U.S. Crude Stockpile Data; Brent Steady
  • Meat Eaters Gulp Record Costs Before Grilling Peak: Commodities
  • Iraq Buys $1.56 Billion of Gold for Biggest Purchase in 3 Years
  • Anglo American Halts Bronces Copper Mine Amid Protests in Chile
  • Miners Face Congo Conflict History Seeking Tin Without Warlords
  • Soybeans Extend Advance as U.S. Inventories Seen at 10-Year Low
  • Coffee Gains in London as Vietnam Slowing Sales; Cocoa Declines
  • Ex-Noble Trader Banga Moves Into Coal Calling Market Bottom
  • Crimea Spat Pushes Russian Energy to China, Away From Europe
  • Punishing Putin Fuels an Energy-Export Drive in U.S. Congress
  • Brazil Drought Rewards Coffee Hoarders Selling at Two-Year Highs
  • Booming U.S. NGL Exports Idled With Houston Channel Closed
  • China’s Gold Imports From Hong Kong Increase on Import Quotas

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CURRENCIES


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GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS

 

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MIDDLE EAST

 

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The Hedgeye Macro Team