• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Last night, Malcolm Knapp released sales results for February, estimating that same-restaurant sales and guest counts declined -1.5% and -4%, respectively, versus February 2013.  On a two-year basis, same-restaurant sales and guest counts declined -3.5% and -5.2%, respectively. 

February also marked a period of sequential deterioration.  The results imply a sequential deceleration of 13 bps and 119 bps for same-restaurant sales and guest counts, respectively.  On a two-year average basis, the results imply a sequential deceleration of 200 bps and 200 bps for same-restaurant sales and guest counts, respectively.

Knapp noted that only one of four weeks in February had positive same-restaurant sales and guest counts. Weather continued to be widespread and fluctuating issue during the month, particularly hitting the first week hard.  Parts of the East Coast and Midwest once again fell victim to the harsh weather.

We will release more data when Black Box Intelligence reports, including any revisions to company specific 1Q14 same-restaurant sales estimates in February.

Howard Penney

Managing Director