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“You must be new to this town, Mister. Only Al Capone kills like that.”

-Bugs Moran

Bugs was a Chicago gangsta, yo. And that’s all I have to say about that. We aren’t making a market call today. Like the entire Connecticut school system (that closes when it drizzles), we’re shutting the office down today for the Valentine’s Day Massacre at Chelsea Piers in Stamford.

Not to be confused with Capone’s made for movies stuff, this is going to be the real deal. At 1PM sharp (attendance is free), we have @HedgeyeRetail analyst (Bugs’ 3rd cousin and former Chicago Blackhawks prospect from Robbinsdale, Minnesota, Alec Richards) between the pipes versus The Dan Holland.

Not to be confused with the 20yr old Holland who you’ll find on HockeyDB.com (who plays for the New Hampshire Monarchs - 5 games played, 8 PIMS, and 1 assist), Hedgeye’s Holland hails from parts unknown. Scouts from Charlestown say he’s a killer. And all he has to do to win is score 1 goal in 10 breakaway tries on Richards. If he does that, he’ll make Big Alberta, Daryl Jones, a lot of dough.

Valentine's Day Massacre - dh wins

Back to the Global Macro Grind

Oh, you don’t care about Hedgeye hockey and want to make some dough in the market do you?

Heyer: “Hello, boys – something I can do for you?”

Gangster: “Yes, you can shut up!”

Ok, be that way.

While this whole attitude thing may not be what you were looking for on Valentine’s Day, that’s just too bad isn’t it.

Despite people on TV getting all lovey-dovey with the US stock market (on no-volume-lower-highs again) yesterday, I don’t like you buying the US stock market today anymore than I didn’t yesterday.

Why?

  1. US DOLLAR – down again this morning (-1.5% in the last 2 weeks and bearish on our long-term TAIL risk duration)
  2. US RATES – after failing @Hedgeye TREND resistance of 2.80% this wk, falling again this morning to 2.72%
  3. GOLD – ripping, alongside the CRB Commodities Index, to fresh new YTD highs of $1308 = +8.8% YTD!

Oh, you don’t like the #InflationAccelerating call because you aren’t long inflation?

Capone: “Wanna know something… I like a guy who can use his head for something more than a hatrack.”

Yeah.

Other than the explicit US #GrowthSlowing signal that has always been Dollar Down + Rates Down = Gold Ripping, what else is going on out there today that has me in such a mood?

  1. JAPAN – Yen breaking out now vs USD and the Nikkei is getting crushed (-3.3% in the last 2 days to -12.4% YTD)
  2. RETAIL SALES – reported yesterday as the worst 1 and 2 year growth rate in 2 years (and everyone blames weather)
  3. RISK RANGES – both the SP500 and VIX risk ranges of 1 and 13.39-20.41, respectively, are wicked wide

And, btw, #InflationAccelerating in the two things I drink/eat for breakfast every morning has me surly too:

  1. COFFEE = +25.7% YTD
  2. OATS = +17.8% YTD

But, whatever you do, don’t tell me there’s never going to be inflation in this world, ever.

Just don’t.

Don’t go there because, as the Interrogator in the Valentine’s Day Massacre told Franky Gusenberg, “I’ve got to tell you Frank, you’re not going to make it. Want me to call a preacher?”

Yep. For Danny Holland versus one of the best goalies in Yale Hockey history, I am officially recommending prayer.

Happy Valentines.

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now:

UST 10yr Yield 2.60-2.80%

SPX 1

Brent Oil 107.69-110.41 (

NatGas 4.76-5.41

Gold 1

Best of luck out there today,

KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Valentine's Day Massacre - Chart of the Day

Valentine's Day Massacre - Virtual Portfolio