I am getting a ton of questions from institutional investors on what I think tomorrow’s January jobs number is going to be.
- I have no idea.
- The question is being asked because consensus still doesn’t want to miss a big up move.
I'm probably going to go into the print with relatively flat net exposure and low gross. I've covered a lot of shorts on red, so I have a lot to do putting shorts back on.
But no need to be a cowboy.
Betting on an unpredictable jobs number? That’s cowboy. I’ve been there and done that. And I failed. Unless you've got some inside information, no one has any edge. No one. (Apologies to Mark Zandi, Steve Liesman, etc).
Moreover, the risk range on the S&P 500 right now is wide at 1735-1803. And the VIX is sitting right in the middle of its risk range of 14.91-20.41 too. So it’s not the spot to play cowboy.
Unlike a lot of pundits, we don’t pretend to have any edge on the monthly non-farm payrolls figure. While many market pretenders toss out pie-in-the-sky predictions, we don't. No real pro or analyst will.
In other words, unless you’ve got some inside information leaning either way is just a guess.