WHERE THE RICH CHINESE ARE TRAVELING IN 2014 WSJ
Japan has emerged as the most desired destination for China’s wealthy travelers this year, according to a recent report by Travelzoo Asia-Pacific. The weak yen has made Japan a new shopping paradise for deep-pocketed Chinese travelers. Travelzoo is a mass-market player in most countries, but it targets the high-end travel market in China.
While Chinese tourists are becoming fonder of visiting foreign countries, the feeling isn’t mutual among foreign travelers visiting China. The number of people who entered mainland China fell by 2.5% YoY during the first 11 months of 2013, while their expenditure fell more by 4.4% in the same period, according to China’s Tourism Bureau.
CHINA DECEMBER NEW YUAN LOANS MISS EXPECTATIONS RTT News
Chinese banks extended CNY 482.5 billion in new yuan loans in December, less than CNY 570 billion forecast by economists. China's aggregate social financing came in at CNY 1.23 trillion in December, unchanged from November, but higher than the expected CNY 1.14 trillion.
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 14, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or 1.03% downside to 1820 and 0.50% upside to 1848.
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
WHAT TO WATCH:
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
The Hedgeye Macro Team
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Takeaway: I'm sticking with our process. It works.
The Nikkei no likey that whole Down Dollar, Up Yen move, eh?
Japan was whacked -3.1% overnight as the Yen signaled immediate-term TRADE overbought versus the US Dollar in our model yesterday. The Yen down -0.6% now on the day should mean Nikkei up tonight.
That gives me confidence being long the S&P 500 for the first time here in 2014. (I bought it at 3:38pm ET yesterday in Real-Time Alerts.)
Another reason why I bought the S&P 500 and covered shorts into the close yesterday was VIX is under 14.91 resistance. That’s my TREND resistance line and SPX immediate-term TRADE oversold at 1817.
I'm simply sticking with our process.
Editor's note: This is a free excerpt of CEO Keith McCullough's morning research. For more information on what we offer here at Hedgeye click here.
Takeaway: We're selling MD and hoping (planning) for a chance to buy it back lower on Q413 earnings.
This note was originally published January 14, 2014 at 11:25 in Healthcare
SELLING MD: After a 21% return ,we're closing our long position in MD. We've been running a survey of OB/GYNs for several months. The survey asks specifically about deliveries and pregnancy in the prior month and the outlook for the current month, and both are weak in Q413. Delivery trends registered a reading of 45.0 in the most recent completed month and 44.0 for the trailing 3 months. A reading below 50 suggests contraction.
TOUGHEST COMPARE IN 6 YEARS: Birth comparisons are the toughest they've been in 6 years in Q413, with Q412 registering +1.6% growth. As a result, and because maternity (still) drives same store results, we believe same store volume will be down substantially more than guidance of "essentially flat" for Q413.
PARITY & DEALS: While the catalysts of pricing parity and acquisitions remain, our current view is that weaker sequential same store volume will offset any positive updates on deals or parity payments. As a reminder, MD missed their 2013 deal guidance, but calmed concerns by filing a universal shelf implying bigger deals in the future. Since then, only 1 deal has been announced and was too small to require financial disclosures.
SENTIMENT: From a factor perspective, the decline in the short interest has largely played out and is clearly no longer the positive catalyst it had been. Additionally, sellside ratings continue to fall, and based on history, does not set up well for forward returns either.
Editor's note: This was written by Tom Tobin, Healthcare Sector Head at Hedgeye Risk Management. Click here to learn more about becoming a Hedgeye subscriber.
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