THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 10, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or 0.71% downside to 1825 and 0.65% upside to 1850.                                                   

                                                                            

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10A                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.54 from 2.54
  • VIX  closed at 12.89 1 day percent change of 0.16%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec., est. 196k (prior 203k)
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, Dec., est. 7% (prior 7%)
  • 8:45am: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Raleigh, N.C.
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories m/m, Nov., est. 0.4% (pr 1.4%)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Jan., est. 46 (pr 43.1)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $2.5b-$3.5b in 2019-2020 sector
  • 1pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Indianapolis
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • 9:30am: Joint Economic Cmte holds hearing on Dec. employment, w/ testimony from BLS Commissioner Erica Groshen
    • 9:30am: House Nat. Resources Cmte panel hearing on seismic exploration of Atlantic outer continental shelf
    • 10am CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters
    • 12:30pm: Amtrak President Joseph Boardman delivers address on passenger rail issues; National Press Club

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Dec. job gain in U.S. probably capped best year since 2005
  • Debt rule faces dilution as regulators heed bank warnings
  • ICE said to hire Evercore to sell NYSE technology divisions
  • Google X staff meet w/FDA pointing to possible medical device
  • Apple cuts China iPhone online, store price for holiday sale
  • Goldman Sachs denies Singapore stock dump, countersues Quah
  • LightSquared awaits regulatory approval; funding deadline near
  • YRC may drop after Teamsters reject accord tied to refinancing
  • Aegerion gets U.S. subpoena on rare-disease drug marketing
  • Chevron says 4Q net income fell as energy production declined
  • Bazaarvoice PowerReviews deal can be blocked by U.S.: judge
  • PCs mark steepest drop in 2013 with 10% decline in shipments
  • U.K. industrial output unexpectedly stagnated in Nov.
  • China’s imports rise to help nation claim trade crown
  • NTT Docomo adds most Japan users for first time since 2011
  • U.S. Funding Deadline, Retail Sales, GE: Wk Ahead Jan. 11-17

EARNINGS:

    • No earnings expected from S&P 500

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • China’s Ore to Coal Imports Reach Records in ’13 as Demand Gains
  • Amazon Soy Route Seen Extending Brazil Lead on U.S.: Commodities
  • Nickel Surges After Report Indonesia Detained Chinese Vessels
  • WTI Crude Rises From Eight-Month Low on Signs Losses Excessive
  • Gold Moving-Average Oscillator Returns Most Through 2013 Plunge
  • Gold, Silver Imports by India Tumble as Government Keeps Curbs
  • Wheat Futures Head for Longest Weekly Losing Streak in Two Years
  • Chalco Says Has Enough Bauxite Stored Ahead of Indonesia Ban
  • Rubber Posts Biggest Weekly Drop Since April on China Demand
  • Red Kite Says Copper Outlook Turns Positive With Glut Delayed
  • LNG Export Surge Boosting Prices for Australian Buyers: Energy
  • Sugar Traders Turn Most Bearish in Four Months on Indian Exports
  • OPEC Outages Propping Up Oil Price Mask Weak Demand: Bear Case
  • American Water Expands Military Business With $288 Million Deal
  • Gold Rises Before Jobs Data as Investors Weigh Demand, Tapering

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more