This note was originally published at 8am on November 08, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“I’m getting sick and tired of doing anything half-way.”
Forget about these unaccountable bureaucrats that bombard your #OldMedia channels every day and take some real advice from one of America’s real legends. Got growth and progress? Rockne gave American football the forward pass. God bless his soul.
I’m not sure what I am going to write about this morning. So I guess I’ll just keep writing and see what happens. As you know, I’m sick and tired of these half-baked econ PhDs trying to centrally plan our lives.
The ECB cutting rates and devaluing The People’s currency as European growth is accelerating (not a typo) took my level of disgust up another notch yesterday. I didn’t think that was possible. I guess I thought wrong.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Like the Fed, the European central planners thought that cutting rates was going to “stimulate growth”, or something like that. Meanwhile, the market’s reaction to yesterday’s European rate cut “news” was global #GrowthSlowing.
Yes. Much like the “growth” style factor being for sale in US Equities ever since the Fed’s unaccountable decision not to taper (Financials down, Staples/Telcos straight up), that’s precisely how Mr. Market voted, worldwide, after the ECB rate cut:
- US Growth Stocks got killed yesterday (Nasdaq -1.9%); Russell2000 now -3.7% from its YTD high
- European Growth Stocks stopped going up (yes, we sold everything on the ECB “news”)
- Asian Stocks continued lower overnight – China and Japan down another -1.1% and -1.0%, respectively
Actually, since the Fed’s slow-growth-no-taper decision and ECB rate cut, from their recent highs:
- China’s Shanghai Composite Index is -6.7%
- Japan’s Nikkei is -4.7%
- US Growth Stocks like Facebook (FB) and Tesla (TSLA) are -12% and -27%, respectively
But don’t tell any of these academic wonks of the Keynesian empire that. They fundamentally believe that Deflating The Inflation (from the world record inflation they perpetuated via currency devaluation in 2011-2012) is now the world’s greatest threat.
No. To be clear, their most recent policy moves are the new threat. Deflating The Inflation is not “DEFLATION!” The 2-stroke engine of 1. #StrongCurrency and 2. #RatesRising stimulates consumption growth via a consumption TAX CUT.
How else do you want to explain the recent Q313 rip in US #GrowthAccelerating from 0.14% in Q412 to +2.84%? Up until Bernanke decided to interrupt the 2-stroke engine (also known as economic gravity) with a no-taper, Down Dollar, Down Rates move, the US economy had its best sequential (3 quarter, 9 month) move in half a decade!
And now guess what the market thinks might happen next?
- US Growth’s GDP slope slows from 2.84%!
Do you need another exclamation mark? Are you sick and tired of reading this yet? Or are you Fed Up with waking up in the morning to these politicians trying to fear-monger you about “default risk” and “deflation”?
Now I know what I am writing about.
I’m writing about what real people in the real world are talking about – not this Keynesian/Marxist central-planning-anti-dog-eat-dog-gravity-smoothing crap.
As Ben Stiller recently said, “there’s always an element of fear that you need to work until people get sick and tired of you … or that you finally figure out that you are a fraud after all.”
Are these un-elected people at the Fed and ECB frauds? Or are they just completely bought and paid for by the Bond Bull Lobby and currency debauchery camps?
I don’t know. But I do know that Draghi worked at Goldman. And I also noticed that Goldman just had the worst FICC (Fixed Income, Currency, Commodity) quarter in the Federal League…
Was Goldman’s prop and/or FICC team choking on too much illiquid bond and currency bubble paper that they finally had to start taking some marks?
Why is Goldman’s Hatzius such a raging dove? Why is he trying to scare the hell out of the Fed on #RatesRising when his own desk is saying the opposite? Why is he all of a sudden lobbying for the Fed to change the goal posts on a lower “unemployment” target?
Who can really get out of any of these bubbles (MBS, REITS, etc.) that Bernanke backstopped? How will it end? Or are they trying to convince you, like they did in late 2007, that nothing could possibly go wrong?
I’ll stop writing and end with a message sponsored by both Republicans and Democrats who have empowered the Fed (and encouraged the BOJ and ECB) to devalue your hard earned currency:
“If you’re sick and tired of the politics of cynicism… come and join this campaign.”
-George W. Bush
Our immediate-term Macro Risk Ranges are now as follows (12 Big Macro Ranges are in our Daily Trading Range product):
UST 10yr Yield 2.49-2.70%
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer