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Macro's Monopolization:  The EPS-Sales Beat-Miss spread continues to widen vs 2Q13 and the TTM average while macro, more than fundamentals, has persisted as the dominate driver of beta during earnings season.  Forecasting fundamentals has been something of an antediluvian exercise thus far with only 60% of companies that have beaten estimates subsequently outperforming the market.   


Beat-Miss:  Beat-Miss trends remained largely static over the last week as 53% and 75% of SPX constituent companies have beaten Sales and Earnings estimates, respectively.  With three-quarters of companies having reported, the Sales-EPS beat-miss spread continues to widen vs the 2Q13 (54%/71%) and TTM (51%/72%) averages. 

3Q13 Earnings Scorecard:  Macro Monopolization - ES Table 110113

Style Factor Performance:   Reported results vs expectations across style factors has flattened out in the latest week with the exception of high topline growers, where high growth equities continue to perform better vs existent estimates that their slow growth counterparts. 

3Q13 Earnings Scorecard:  Macro Monopolization - ES SFP Table 110113

Fundamental Performance:    Slight deterioration WoW with 51% and 53% of companies registering sequential acceleration in sales growth and earnings growth, respectively.  55% of companies are reporting sequential expansion in operating margins as cost initiatives, modest efficiency gains and muted wage pressures continue to drive peak returns to capital.  At the sector level, Materials, Tech, Industrials and Staples are reflecting improving trends across sales, profitability and margins.

3Q13 Earnings Scorecard:  Macro Monopolization - ES OP Table 110113 


The Post-Print Random Walk?  Below we chart company Beats & Misses vs subsequent market adjusted 3-day performance.

  • Sales: 60% of companies that beat sales estimates subsequently outperformed the market to the tune of 4.0% on average.  The other 40% of companies that beat sales estimates underperformed the market over the subsequent 3-day period by an average of -3.7%.  Subsequent performance for companies missing Sales estimates was similarly mixed.  
  • EPS:  57% of companies beating EPS estimates have subsequently outperformed the market by ~3.8% on average while 43% went on to underperform the market by an average of -3.9%. Subsequent performance for companies missing EPS estimates was similarly mixed.  

3Q13 Earnings Scorecard:  Macro Monopolization - BM Sales

3Q13 Earnings Scorecard:  Macro Monopolization - BM EPS

Christian B. Drake