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RECAP: EXPERT CALL WITH CFO OF EAT

Title: Expert Call with the CFO of EAT

Speakers: Howard Penney, Hedgeye Risk Management; Guy Constant, Brinker International

Subscriber Link: CLICK HERE 

 

TOPICS INCLUDE:

Industry-Wide Insight

  • The evolution of the casual dining industry
  • How Brinker adapted to these secular changes
  • The future of the casual dining industry
  • The difficulty in operating nine different brands
  • The whittling down of the company
  • The birth of operational efficiency
  • The evolution of the value proposition

Brinker-Specific Insight

  • Leveraging technology to drive traffic
  • Future technological initiatives
  • The development of the delivery business
  • Better executing on pizza and flatbreads
  • The Mexican food opportunity
  • The current reimaging initiative

 

 

THE EVOLUTION OF THE CASUAL DINING INDUSTRY AND BRINKER INTERNATIONAL:

Guy Constant: “It’s been an interesting time since 2006, when the industry, in our view, in the late 2000s entered into a mature phase.  The industry being casual dining, in this case, entered into a mature phase and how we reacted to that initially and how we’ve reacted to it since has been an interesting journey for our company.  But since, really, late 2009, early 2010, when we realized that the historic way that we had operated and been successful and had won in casual dining had changed, and we thought permanently, and continue to believe permanently, we realized there was a different way we need to compete and operate in this business. 

 

And so, for us, that meant focusing on our core Chili’s business, improving our business model and preparing for an environment where we felt in the future would result in a lower comp sales environment for casual dining, lower demand for the consumer going forward.  And so, that’s the journey we’ve really been on, it started with us stopping growth of our restaurant concepts. 

 

It followed very quickly with the pairing down of our portfolio from what was as high as nine brands in the mid-2000s all the way down to two brands today, that being Chili’s and Maggiano’s, followed very quickly by an aggressive effort from us to improve margins in the Chili’s business, which had deteriorated pretty dramatically from the early 2000s to the late 2000s, really with average annual volumes that were very similar when you looked at those two periods.  Margins at Chili’s, in particular, we’re down over 600 bps if you compare 2010 to 2002, again at similar unit volumes.  So we knew there was opportunity to turn the margins of the business around and do what, really, every company, every manufacturing company in America has done over the past 20 years.”

 

 

DRAWING A PARALLEL TO THE CURRENT PORTFOLIO OF DARDEN:

Guy Constant: “I think what can happen, at least what happened in our business, I certainly can’t discuss what happened in other businesses, but certainly in our business, with particularly Chili’s being so much larger than all of the other brands that we’ve had historically, was that if you were to look at the 20 best ideas for improving the Chili’s business, number 20 on that list was always worth more money than number 1 on the list of any of the smaller brands. 

 

And so, you were faced with this quandary that the best idea to improve one of our other brands, which you’d want to pay a lot of attention to since it was such a good idea, still wasn’t worth as much as an idea that was well down the list at Chili’s.   So, it could get easy to have the Chili’s part of the business say, “Why are you working on the smaller brands when there is so much opportunity at Chili’s?” and it would be very easy to be at the smaller brand and say, “You’re obviously either trying to turn us into Chili’s or all of your focus is on Chili’s and you’re not paying enough attention to us.” 

 

And so, over time, while we’re sitting in the middle of that, you could never really point to gosh the extra brands are distracting or they’re impacting our business, the end result was that you could see it in the results of the overall business that we weren’t performing as well as we should.  Is it a coincidence that we moved our portfolio down now to two brands, that our results got better?  Maybe.  But I actually think there is some correlation there to the ability to focus solely on Chili’s, which has always been the best part, and the most profitable part, of our business, and leverage that as best we could in order to compete in this new environment.”

 

 

 

OTHER HIGHLIGHTS:

*Paraphrased

 

How difficult was it to manage all 9 brands?

  • Characterize it is as the “impasse of brain space”
  • You end up paying more attention to the larger brands and the smaller brands are unable to fulfill their potential
  • Performance suffers
  • Think there is a correlation between moving the portfolio down to two brands and generating stronger returns

What technological initiatives have you undertaken in order to drive traffic?

  • In regard to kitchen and manufacturing technology, they are in the 6th inning; certainly more to be done, but they have made strong progress already
  • In regard to front of the house operations, they are in the 1st or 2nd inning
  • The primary differentiator in the casual dining industry is service
  • Technology allows businesses to enhance service
  • Fast casual is so attractive, because it is extremely convenient
  • Companies must figure out how to leverage technology in order to enhance convenience

What are the primary advantages of the tabletop technology?

  • It is an opportunity to enhance service
  • It allows for more convenience, by allowing the customer to control when to pay and leave the restaurant
  • There is an average check improvement
  • Tends to drive sales around beverages, desserts, and add-ons
  • Allows for useful feedback from guests
  • Allows the company to expand their database and leverage it through customer relationship marketing activities

How has the value proposition evolved over time?

  • Value proposition was broken from 2005-2006
  • Brinker, and casual dining as a whole, had low and declining value scores
  • By 2006, there was a wide gap between the prices of QSRs and casual dining companies
  • Fast casual filled this gap, which is one reason they have been so successful
  • Casual dining companies need to focus on investing in quality food and menu innovation

What potential do you see in the delivery side of the business?

  • Delivery is currently 10% of business, despite being poorly executed
  • Delivery orders typically fill the gaps between peak hours
  • There is a large amount of upside
  • Execution was holding them back
  • Cutting down the menu and linking up with kitchen technology in order to give accurate cook times will help drive the business and enhance the overall operation

How can you better execute on pizza and flatbreads?

  • There is an opportunity to drive incremental traffic from loyal guests by increasing frequency of visits or driving their ticket up
  • They need to do a better job marketing to non-loyal, newer school type customers
  • Made a commitment to invest slightly more in media

How will Mexican contribute to sales?

  • Mexican will be an innovative message from them, more so than a value message
  • Have tested all the items
  • Need to make a few, low cost adjustments in their kitchens in order to ensure operational execution is top notch

How far along are you in the remodeling process?

  • Have 50-65% of the system done; plan to have 75% done by June
  • Should be done with all of the company reimages by the end of FY14 or the end of 1Q15
  • Finished remodels in California around 6-9 months ago
  • Have seen very good results from these remodels
  • Still need to remodel most of Florida and part of Texas
  • Capex will come down significantly as the remodeling program unwinds

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


IL VGT SEPTEMBER UPDATE

  • At the end of September, there were 10,250 VGT’s up and running, up 9% (833 units) MoM
    • Since the market opened last September, average monthly installations have trended at 849 units
  • Using an average of the machines outstanding at the end of August and September, average daily win per device was $100/day in the month of September, in-line with the average for the last 3 months.  As the chart below shows, despite recent added supply, daily win day has remained steady around the $100 level.
  • As of October 24, there were still 1,554 establishments pending approval.  If approved, these establishments can add a maximum of an additional ~7,770 machines.  This implies a market size of roughly 18-20,000 VLTs, unless Chicago opts in.  At the current pace of installations, we expect shipments to IL to taper off materially by the summer of 2014.
  • Supplier impact:              
    • IGT has been shipping about 1,000/ Q to IL which translate to about 5 cents a year of EPS impact
    • During the last 2 quarters, BYI’s shipped 1,369 to IL and 1,943 units over the last twelve months.  An additional 2,000 VGT unit shipment to IL should translate to about $0.25 cents in earnings for BYI.

IL VGT SEPTEMBER UPDATE - vgt



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NCLH 2Q YOUTUBE

In preparation for NCLH's F3Q 2013 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.

 

 

NCLH 2Q YOUTUBE - nclh

 

GETAWAY

  • Norwegian Getaway, is getting ready for her debut in Miami early next year.

3Q CAPACITY SCHEDULE

  • Looking at deployment for the third quarter, our capacity in each itinerary is as follows. Our Europe program has 28% in the Mediterranean and 8% in the Baltic. We have approximately 20% each in Alaska and Bermuda, 13% in the Caribbean, 7% in Hawaii, and the balance made up of other itinerary.

PROMOTIONAL SPENDING

  • I would say that we've had some promotional activities going on following that. And when I look at it right now, I would say that things in the last few weeks seem to have been a little bit better. And I think some of the noise as well is – some of the players may be doing a little bit more from a promotional standpoint to fill up their ships.  Having said that, what I'm seeing now is that will play out over the remainder of this year.

ONBOARD REVENUE

  • Onboard, we have a great quarter – some of it is Breakaway, some of it is just the continuing efforts we have. I would tell you that the remainder of the year is built into our forecasted guidance and yields...But it is a little lumpy.

EUROPE

  • We've been able to bottom out in Europe market with yields and we're starting to see the ticket yields improving. But there are a few more Europeans on the ships than what has been the trend.
  • On the margin, we're seeing a bit more of the Americans, but we're also seeing quite a few – and you look at the European economic situation, you're getting a little bit of a later booking from some of these countries. And we're all fighting for the same number of consumers. So in some cases, you're getting people that are spending a little bit less from the European side.

2014

  • We're feeling pretty decent about what's going on for next year, although it's early. We're feeling pretty good about the booking patterns for 2014. First quarter, we're feeling very good about both on the load and the price.

SHARE REPURCHASE 2H 2014?

  • My preference would probably be given where we are, it would probably to be in the stock repurchase program.

 


$AAPL, LEVELS REFRESHED

Takeaway: The world’s largest tech company is set to report earnings today. Here are Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's trading levels in advance.

$AAPL, LEVELS REFRESHED - AAPL

 

Trade :: Trend :: Tail Process - These are three durations over which we analyze investment ideas and themes. Hedgeye has created a process as a way of characterizing our investment ideas and their risk profiles, to fit the investing strategies and preferences of our subscribers.

  • "Trade" is a duration of 3 weeks or less
  • "Trend" is a duration of 3 months or more
  • "Tail" is a duration of 3 years or less

Anything longer than 3 years is unpredictable

 

Click here for more information on Hedgeye's suite of research products.


Under Armour: EXPENSIVE

Takeaway: UA may face a tough margin stretch ahead. Great company, but we can find other stocks with better growth at a lower price.

This note was originally published October 24, 2013 at 12:03 in Retail

Under Armour: EXPENSIVE - ua1

Under Armour (UA) might have a couple tough margin quarters ahead of it.  The good news is that its finally making progress outside the United States.

 

UA is a great company that is coming into its own, but it may face a couple of tough margin quarters ahead. UA is one of the most expensive names in consumer, and we can find other stocks with higher quality growth at a lower price.

 

Given how hated UA's stock is (see our sentiment monitor in Exhibit 1) we suspected that material revenue beat followed by a better print on the EPS line would be enough to give this stock a shot in the arm.

 

Under Armour: EXPENSIVE - brian1

 

But then we flipped over to the balance sheet and a 59% boost in inventories (despite only a 25.7% boost in sales), and juxtaposed that against the -33bp erosion in Gross Margins in the quarter. Any way we slice the onion, bloated inventories and weakening gross margins hardly inspires confidence in any financial model.  In fact it is almost always a precursor to additional gross margin weakness.

 

WHEN A BRANDS LINE SWINGS DOWN AND FLIRTS WITH THE LOWER RIGHT QUADRANT, IT'S NEVER GOOD

Under Armour: EXPENSIVE - UAsigma

Also, footwear sales were up 28% in the quarter. Don't get us wrong -- that's a great number for most brands. This isn't most brands -- it's UnderArmour. A few years ago when the footwear product used to -- well…stink -- we'd expect sub par growth. But the brand has finally figured out its identity and has put out product that consumers actually want to wear -- -both men and women. But does this add up to 28% growth? We'd think something greater -- perhaps even 2x (at least if it wants to maintain a 48x forward multiple.)

 

Under Armour: EXPENSIVE - UAPE

Let's put that multiple into perspective for a minute… UA is expensive -- period. But some of the best stocks in the market are expensive (and some of the worst stocks are cheap). We're not a fan of PE/Growth multiples. But when looked at alongside other high growth peers it certainly puts things into perspective we can get a good sense as to relative value.  SO let's do that…lets compare UA against a who's who of high-flying consumer growth names. We're talking everything from TSLA, CMG, AMZN, UA, NFLX, KORS, NKE, WWW, RL, FNP, FNP and RH.  Unfortunately for UA, it tips the scale along with TSLA, AMZN and NFLIX at 2.0x PEG.  As an aside, our favorite name is RH -- the cheapest name on the page.

 

 

There were definitely some things we liked this quarter, and those focused on the areas where UA has been damaged goods in the past -- The biggest of those is International where It just opened up a huge Brands experience store in Shanghai, which is a great idea no matter how you slice it.  For the first time in…well, ever…it looks like UA can get 10% of its sales outside of these United States. That would be a big valuation kicker for US, because there's a fair sized contingent that thinks UA is forever rooted in the US. We disagree, by the way. Secondly, womens continues to outpace the company's overall growth rate, and now accounts for about 30% of total revenues. To put that into perspective, Nike announced last week that it's targeting its women's business to account for 24% of revenues by 2018. UA, already has a well established women's product, and if womens were to account for nearly half of the business in the years to come as company management indicated that could be a serious growth opportunity.


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