Earlier today the Hedgeye Macro Team, led by CEO Keith McCullough, hosted their quarterly Macro Themes conference call in which they detailed their Top 3 Global Macro Investment themes for 4Q13. The Replay and Presentation Materials can be accessed via the links below.
1. #BernankevsCongress: The biggest, current risk to forward growth domestically is not Congress, it's the prevailing policy position of the Fed. The #StrongDollar + #RatesRising dynamic has backstopped our bullish U.S. growth call YTD and the acute risk here is that a perpetuation of unprecedentedly dovish monetary policy catalyzes a reversal in the strong dollar based growth cycle we've observed over the last year. Policy drives currencies and the Dollar is breaking down - with significant global macro investment implications.
2. #EuroBulls: European economic performance has been a shipwreck in its protracted "crisis", but the tide is turning. We're bullish on the marginal, positive change in the fundamentals, the improving risk climate, and the EUR versus the USD as Bernanke and Co. talk down U.S. growth and the Greenback. We identify the countries and asset classes that we expect to outperform across the continent.
3. #GetActive: With the equity fund flow story on hold for now, we think the easy money has already been made in 2013. For much of the year, tuning out the ever-changing consensus bear case and staying long of market beta was alpha. Now that is no longer the case, as alpha generation will increasingly be determined by stock/industry selection and risk managing one's gross and net exposure. Additionally, monetary and fiscal policy uncertainty is likely to contribute to rising volatility across a variety of asset classes.
- Hedgeye Macro