prev

What’s New in Today in Retail (9/26)

Takeaway: Athletic apparel defying gravity. UK Sporting goods picking up. JCP/Equity-Holiday-Martha. WMT NKE BBBY AMZN PVH LVMH

EVENTS TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS

 

NKE - Earnings Call: Thursday 9/26 5:00 pm

FINL - Earnings Call: Friday 9/27 8:30 am

 

Takeaway: We’re looking for a modest beat out of Nike this evening -- $0.82 vs the Street at $0.78. While this is positive, we’re not expecting one of those ‘beat by a 25%’ quarters out of Nike. That, plus the fact that it has performed so strongly since being added to the Dow, makes us think that this quarter won’t be a major catalyst for the stock. Fortunately, it is hosting its analyst meeting at it’s WHQ in 2-weeks, which should give investors a lot more to sink their teeth in to.

 

 

ECONOMIC/INDUSTRY DATA


Takeaway: Athletic apparel sales continue to be extremely robust, which is particularly noteworthy because a) retail in general has been so slow, and b) there’s been a marked slowdown in Athletic footwear.  The strongest and most consistent brands continue to be Nike and UnderArmour.

What’s New in Today in Retail (9/26) - chart3 9 26

What’s New in Today in Retail (9/26) - chart4 9 26

What’s New in Today in Retail (9/26) - chart5 9 26

What’s New in Today in Retail (9/26) - chart6 9 26

 

UK Survey Shows Strong Growth in Sporting Goods Sales in September 

(http://www.sportsonesource.com/news/article_home.asp?Prod=1&section=5&id=48105)

 

  • "More than 65 percent of the United Kingdom's recreational goods retailers said sales grew in September, while none reported sales declines, according to the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) latest monthly Distributive Trades Survey of 111 retail and wholesale firms."
  • "The survey indicated overall U.K. retail sales in September grew at their fastest pace since June 2012, and exceeded already solid expectations. September marked the third consecutive month of growth retail sales growth in the U.K. with growth reported across a number of sectors. CBI saiid the survey indicates retailers and wholesalers expect retail sales to grow robustly again in October."
  • Key findings of the survey include:
  • 46 percent of respondents reported that sales volumes were up on a year ago, while 12 percent said they were down, giving a balance of +34 percent - the strongest since June 2012 (+42 percent) and exceeding expectations (+26 percent)
  • Retailers expect sales volumes to grow at a similarly strong pace next month (+31 percent)
  • 52 percent of department stores said business volumes were up, while 0 percent said they were down, giving a balance of +52 percent
  • Overall, 22 percent of retailers said that sales volumes were above average for the time of year, while 10 percent said they were below average, giving a balance of +12 percent - the highest survey balance since December 2010 (+18 percent)
  • 36 percent placed more orders with suppliers than they did a year ago and 22 percent placed fewer, with the resulting balance of +14 percent.

Takeaway: We’d already gotten a sense about these trends through Foot Locker, and then Sports Direct.  But this definitely confirms the fact that things are getting better in the UK.

 

COMPANY NEWS

 

JCP - Penney leaning toward $1 billion equity raise

(http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/25/us-jcpenney-equity-fundraising-idUSBRE98O1BH20130925?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews)

 

  • "[JCP]  is looking to raise as much $750 million to $1 billion in new equity to build up its cash reserves as the holiday season approaches, according to three people with knowledge of the matter."

 

Takeaway: What’s odd is that it already has about another $1bn in assets it can access/liquidate before having to issue equity.  Regardless, there are two reasons people are short JCP. 1) Because they think it is a zero. Or 2) Because they think a deal is coming. Once the cash is in hand, the ‘zero’ call is tough to make – at least near-term (especially with the company’s announcement today that it is comping positively). In addition, with liquidity not an issue, the pool of candidates it can tap for the CEO role grows significantly.

 

JCP - Report: J.C. Penney will hire 35K holiday workers

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/report-jc-penney-will-hire-35k-holiday-workers)

 

  • "J.C. Penney Co., Inc. will reportedly hire about 35,000 seasonal workers for the upcoming holiday season. "
  • "J.C. Penney also hired about 35,000 seasonal employees during the 2011 holiday season. The retailer did not release holiday hiring figures last year."

 Takeaway: Doesn’t look like a bankrupt retailer to me.

 

JCP - J.C. Penney Looks to Unwind Martha Stewart Pact

(http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303796404579097424086074190.html)

 

  • "[JCP] is trying to find an amicable way to unwind a merchandising agreement with [MSO] that has been the subject of a court battle with Macy's Inc., people familiar with the matter said."
  • "A ruling in the case by Justice Jeffrey Oing of the New York State Supreme Court was expected this fall. In a hearing Wednesday, Judge Oing said he planned to issue a decision 'hopefully in a shorter time, rather than a later time.'"
  • "The companies have had discussions about modifying the relationship, the people familiar with the matter said. Under one scenario, Penney would exit categories in which it has a direct conflict with Macy's, including bedding, bath and housewares, which can't carry the Martha Stewart brand, one person familiar with the situation said. Another person cautioned that no deal was imminent."
  • Martha Stewart spokeswoman Claudia Shaum said Wednesday, 'J.C. Penney remains one of our many retail partners. Our agreement with them is in force, and we have no intention of ending it.'"

 Takeaway: If JC Penney wants to ditch Martha, she’s history.

 

WMT - Wal-Mart Cutting Orders as Unsold Merchandise Piles Up

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/wal-mart-cutting-orders-as-unsold-merchandise-piles-up.html)

(https://www.sourcingjournalonline.com/report-wal-mart-canceling-orders-roils-markets-li-fung-defends-wal-mart/)

 

  • "[WMT] is cutting orders it places with suppliers this quarter and next to address rising inventory the company flagged in last month’s earnings report. Last week, an ordering manager at the company’s Bentonville, Arkansas, headquarters described the pullback in an e-mail to a supplier, who said others got similar messages. 'We are looking at reducing inventory for Q3 and Q4,' said the Sept. 17 e-mail, which was reviewed by Bloomberg News."
  • "Walmart spokesman David Tovar said, 'We are managing our inventory appropriately. We feel good about our inventory position.'" "The order pullback isn’t 'across the board' and is happening 'category by category."

Some subsequent comments

  • "Global exporter Li & Fung defended Wal-Mart as well: 'There has been no cancellation of orders from Wal-Mart and we continue to do business with them as usual. Also, Wal-Mart is continuing to place orders for 2014 as a normal,' said a spokesperson from Li & Fung, speaking to Reuters."
  • David Tovar, Wal-Mart’s vice president of communications called the Bloomberg report 'completely irresponsible.' He added: 'I think they (Bloomberg) are taking a huge leap and drawing a very broad conclusion on one email from one buyer to one supplier.'

ADS - Reebok CEO talks to German newspaper

  • Reebok CEO Matt O'Toole pointed to the fact that the brand's revenue and margins increased for the first time in years in the second quarter. He believes that the brand's margins will continue to improve and revenue will grow steadily.

 Takeaway: This is notable, if true. But let’s keep in mind that just two weeks ago Adidas issued a big negative preannouncement due to top line weakness and product availability.

 

BBBY Earnings Quantitative Summary

What’s New in Today in Retail (9/26) - chart2 9 26

What’s New in Today in Retail (9/26) - chart7 9 26  2

 

NKE - Nike to release LeBron 11 iD and Zebra print pants

  • The Lebron's will be available exclusively on Nike.com starting 10/11 and the pants are set to hit retailers this Friday.

Takeaway: The shoes make sense. The pants, however....

 

What’s New in Today in Retail (9/26) - chart8 9 26

What’s New in Today in Retail (9/26) - chart9 9 26

 

LVMH - Future of Marc Jacobs at Louis Vuitton in doubt

(http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/25/us-lvmh-louisvuitton-idUSBRE98O0XD20130925?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews)

 

  • "Marc Jacobs may be on the verge of leaving Louis Vuitton when his contract ends next month as designer's future at the French luxury brand remains unresolved, an industry source told Reuters."
  • "'His contract may not be renewed,' the source told Reuters on condition of anonymity, without going into further detail. The French magazine Challenges this week said his departure had already been approved internally."
  • "Marc Jacobs helped develop Louis Vuitton's women and men's ready-to-wear lines and runs his own eponymous brand which ranks among the most profitable smaller fashion subsidiaries within LVMH, fuelled by demand in the United States and Japan."

 

AMZN - Amazon to take on 15,000 new seasonal UK staff for Christmas crunch

(http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/sep/24/amazon-christmas-15000-seasonal-staff-uk)

 

  • "Amazon has announced it is hiring more than 15,000 seasonal staff across the UK to meet customer demand in the runup to Christmas."
  • "The US internet retailer, which is expanding operations in the UK, said it expected hundreds of the temporary staff would later be able to take up permanent jobs."
  • "Amazon said it was creating a variety of roles across its eight 'fulfilment centres' and its Edinburgh customer service centre.""
  • "Amazon said that last year it hired 10,000 seasonal staff in the runup to the festive season and by the end of January had offered roles to 1,000 temporary workers."

 

GOOG, WFM, TGT, SPLS - Google Brings Retail Delivery Service to San Francisco Bay Area

(http://allthingsd.com/20130925/google-brings-retail-delivery-service-to-san-francisco-bay-area/?refcat=news)

 

  • "Google announced on Wednesday that it will expand its same-day retail delivery service, Google Shopping Express, to cover all residents of San Francisco and the southern Peninsula part of the Bay Area."
  • "The service allows users to shop from a number of large chain stores, including Target, Staples and Whole Foods, as well as some regional and local retailers, the company said."
  • "In conjunction with the expansion, Google also launched iOS and Android apps for Shopping Express, allowing for mobile-based purchases to be delivered to users’ homes until nine in the evening."
  • "Google isn’t the only one testing a same-day delivery retail program. EBay is working on eBay Now, which aims to deliver retail goods within an hour. And Amazon continues to test its 'Fresh' grocery delivery service with Los Angeles and Seattle residents."

What’s New in Today in Retail (9/26) - chart1 9 26

  

PVH - PVH Expands Van Heusen Traveler for Fall

(http://www.wwd.com/menswear-news/sportswear/pvh-expands-van-heusen-traveler-for-fall-7186132?module=hp-mens)

 

  • "Van Heusen...is introducing a full travel-inspired collection that is targeted to a man on the go. Called Van Heusen Traveler, the multicategory collection is flowing into Kohl’s, J.C. Penney and Macy’s stores now for fall. A limited number of items had been tested for spring."
  • "Retail prices are $19.99 for core crewnecks, $24.99 to $34.99 for shirts and $250-$300 for suit separates with out-the-door prices of $129 to $149, and pants are priced at $70-$80 with out-the-door prices of $34.99 to $39.99."

  

COLM - Columbia Sportswear Company Announces Appointment of Franco Fogliato as Senior Vice President of Europe

(http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-2013049.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

 

  • "[COLM]...announced today the appointment of Franco Fogliato as senior vice president of Europe, reporting directly to president and CEO Tim Boyle, effective November 4, 2013."
  • "Fogliato, 44, will be responsible for establishing and executing sales, distribution, and marketing strategies for the company's Columbia Sportswear(R), Mountain Hardwear(R), and SOREL(R) brands, sold through more than 5,000 wholesale customers across Europe."
  • "Mr. Fogliato brings 17 years of European sales and marketing experience in the action sports and outdoor footwear and apparel industries. Since 2004 he has served as general manager of Europe for the Billabong Group...and as a member of company's executive board."

 

INDUSTRY NEWS

 

Denim Imports On The Rise

(https://www.sourcingjournalonline.com/denim-imports-rise/)

 

  • "After declining 5% in 2012, total blue denim apparel imports are up 1.2% so far in 2013. A slight decline in the men’s segment has been more than offset by strength in women’s."
  • "Import data from the Office of Textiles and Apparel, or OTEXA, show that in the first seven months of 2013, imports of denim totaled $2.27 billion. Total units rose 1.4% to 23.8 million dozen (286 million units), resulting in an average cost per unit of $7.94, virtually flat with last year."
  • "China and Mexico are the largest sources of U.S. denim imports, with 29.7% and 25.8% of total dollar volume, respectively. So far this year, China’s share has increased by .1 percentage points, while Mexico’s has grown by .5 points. The fastest growing trading partners in denim apparel are Bangladesh, whose jeans are also the cheapest, and serve the fast fashion business, and Indonesia, which has grown its U.S. jeans business by 7.8% in the first seven months of the year."

 

Indian Shopping Rushes Online

(https://www.sourcingjournalonline.com/indian-shopping-rushes-online/)

 

  • "Consumers across India are increasingly opting to shop online and retailers are joining the e-commerce space to keep up. Branded apparel has seen a year-on-year growth of 84 percent, according to a 2013 Internet Economy Watch Report by IAMAI, with 27.5 percent of apparel retailers taking up online sales."
  • "The online shopping industry in India is fast catching on, not just in the larger metros but also in the smaller cities. The market is currently estimated at Rs 52,000 and is growing at 100 percent per year, ASSOCHAM notes."
  • "With more than 100 million Internet users in India, half of which are choosing to make purchases online, both retail and consumer goods stores are getting into the e-commerce market, the survey noted."

 

Garment Industry Gets an Eco-Friendly Makeover

(https://www.sourcingjournalonline.com/garment-industry-gets-eco-friendly-makeover/)

 

  • "Greenpeace began its Detox Campaign in 2011 with the goal of challenging major clothing brands and retailers to cease all discharge of hazardous chemicals from their supply chains and products."
  • "Since then, 15 big brands including Nike, Adidas, Puma, H&M, Marks & Spencer, C&A, Li-Ning, Zara, Mango, Esprit, Levi’s, Uniqlo, Benetton, Victoria’s Secret, G-Star Raw and Valentino have publicly committed to the cause."
  • "The first goal of the eco-group is to eliminate or substitute all hazardous chemicals from the manufacturing processes of its members. Other objectives ZDHC aims to achieve by 2020 include developing a process to screen and get rid of chemicals in the industry, create common chemical assessment tools and offer guidelines on best practices for supply chain stakeholders."


Greenback Gong Show

Client Talking Points

CHINA

Down Rates = Down Stocks (in both China and the USA). China doesn’t like Down Dollar inasmuch as I don’t. The Shanghai Composite was down almost -2% overnight. It has now corrected -4.5% from its September high. The A-shares are getting interesting to us on the long side for the first time in years.

US DOLLAR

In case you somehow missed it, the US Dollar is hanging on by its toe-nails at this point. "Toe-nails" being the year-to-date lows and the long-term TAIL risk line of $79.11 support, So the question now becomes whether or not the Japanese can be even more dovish (from here) on the margin than this Bernanke/Yellen circus. October taper talk? That would help.

UST 10YR

Rates Down = Stocks (and growth expectations) Down. After FIVE straight S&P 500 down days, more people are beginning to agree with me now on that. Growth and inflation expectations are embedded in a sovereign bond yield’s TREND. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury TREND support is 2.55%. TRADE resistance now is 2.76%. #ToughSpot

Asset Allocation

CASH 49% US EQUITIES 16%
INTL EQUITIES 20% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 0% INTL CURRENCIES 15%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
WWW

WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. We think that the prevailing bearish view is very backward looking and leaves out a big piece of the WWW story, which is that integration of these brands into the WWW portfolio will allow the former PLG group to achieve what it could not under its former owner (most notably – international growth, and leverage a more diverse selling infrastructure in the US). Furthermore it will grow without needing to add the capital we’d otherwise expect as a stand-alone company – especially given WWW’s consolidation from four divisions into three -- which improves asset turns and financial returns.

HCA

Health Care sector head Tom Tobin has identified a number of tailwinds in the near and longer term that act as tailwinds to the hospital industry, and HCA in particular. This includes: Utilization, Maternity Trends as well as Pent-Up Demand and Acuity. The demographic shift towards more health care – driven by a gradually improving economy, improving employment trends, and accelerating new household formation and births – is a meaningful Macro factor and likely to lead to improving revenue and volume trends moving forward.  Near-term market mayhem should not hamper this  trend, even if it means slightly higher borrowing costs for hospitals down the road.

TROW

Financials sector senior analyst Jonathan Casteleyn continues to carry T. Rowe Price as his highest-conviction long call, based on the long-range reallocation out of bonds with investors continuing to move into stocks.  T Rowe is one of the fastest growing equity asset managers and has consistently had the best performing stock funds over the past ten years.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

BREAKING: US GDP Growth for Q213 2.5% - might be as good as it gets for 2013 @KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I will simply say that I disagreed with the decision of the committee and argued against it. Here is a direct quote from the summation of my intervention at the table during the policy “go round” when Chairman [Ben] Bernanke called on me to speak on whether or not to taper: “Doing nothing at this meeting would increase uncertainty about the future conduct of policy and call the credibility of our communications into question.” I believe that is exactly what has occurred, though I take no pleasure in saying so. 

- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher


STAT OF THE DAY

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week to near a six-year low, a promising sign for the labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 305,000, the Labor Department said this morning.


Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

BYD: RETURN TO PEAK

Peak a long way off but no regional market has more upside than LV Locals.

 

 

I read some of the BYD sell side notes coming out of G2E and it appears most of the analysts are missing the boat.  The story does not remain negative same-store revenues in AC and the regional markets and still sluggish Las Vegas locals growth.  That was yesterday’s news.  Tomorrow’s story is a sequential improving top line in LV, leveraging a lower cost structure, cost cutting in the regionals, and stability.  The takeaway?  BYD should be beating estimates beginning in Q3.  Unfortunately, the sell side heard what they wanted to hear.  We think the buy side heard something new.

 

So how sustainable is BYD’s good fortune.  Well, for the moment, LV locals top line growth should be modest.  However, the macro – especially the most important variable of housing prices – is moving fast.  Remember that the LV housing market was among the hardest hit and in terms of casino revenues, no gaming market suffered more from the economic downturn than the LV Locals.  Psychologically, the rise of housing values above outstanding mortgages should provide a big lift to consumer confidence.  That lift could come fast and impact casino revenues quickly and dramatically.  One local economist we spoke to estimated that every 1% increase in housing prices generated $750 million to the Nevada economy.

 

We can’t predict when that will happen but we can give you some “return to peak” estimates.  BYD’s LV locals EBITDA is roughly half of where it was at the 2006 peak.  BYD only needs a 35% increase in revenues in that market to double its EBITDA there to get back to peak.  With a doubling of that EBITDA stream, BYD’s equity value would almost double as well.  We’re not projecting this as a near-term event.  However, we think the perspective is instructive and the magnitude unlike any other return to peak analysis with the exception of MGM.  But the sell side already loves that one.


Take Profits

This note was originally published at 8am on September 12, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“In faith there is profit.”

-Saikaku Ihara

 

In blind faith (in government and/or your research process), there are also losses. So make sure you keep moving out there. The history of your money in public markets is that politicians and/or Mr. Market are always looking to take it away.

 

The aforementioned quote comes from an epic chapter in the late Jack Weatherford’s The History of Money titled “Knights of Commerce”, where he chronicles the history of The Knights Templars who, at one point, “became businessmen who ran the world’s greatest national banking corporation.” (pg 65)

 

Then along came a French plunderer (King Philip IV) and that was about it for the Knights. “Phillip took the management of his finances out of the hands of the Templars and established the Royal Treasury at the Louvre… Philips desperate need for money arose after he tried a trick that Nero had pulled a thousand years earlier: he debased the silver currency of his realm.” (pg 68)

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Both Gold (-1.6% to -20% YTD) and Silver (-2% to -26% YTD) are being debased (again) this morning. So you have to be careful in defining what you think “money” is. In the intermediate-term, the value of all moneys is cyclical. And you have to risk manage that.

 

Or at least that’s how I roll. I don’t really trust that the value of anything that trades on anything that is attempted to be centrally planned has a super secret biblical “value.” Every morning we wake up to politicians trying to mess with our profit plan.

 

The plan remains that the plan is going to change – and with that, let’s get on with our day. Here’s this morning’s setup:

  1. US Equities = immediate-term TRADE overbought within a bullish intermediate-term TREND
  2. Japanese, German, and British Equities = immediate-term TRADE overbought within bullish TRENDs
  3. Government Bonds (Treasuries, JGBs, Bunds, and Gillts) = immediate-term TRADE oversold within bearish TRENDs

In other words, being long stocks (and short bonds) for the last few weeks has been fantastic – so take some profits.

 

While it’s a pretty straight forward communication process to tell you when I am buying things while people are freaking out on red, sometimes I confuse people when I then turnaround and sell some of what I bought.

 

I don’t take offense to that as I am often confusing myself! That’s where embracing the uncertainty (signals) in my process leaves me at this stage of my career. I listen to the risk management signals before I listen to the little squirrels in my head.

 

#squirrely

 

To boil this process down to the bare Mucker bones:

  1. When a stock, bond, currency, or commodity is immediate-term TRADE overbought, I sell some
  2. When a stock, bond, currency, or commodity is immediate-term TRADE oversold, I buy some

That’s it. So easy a hockey player can do it.

 

And by making every mistake I make out loud for the last 5 years (over 2,000 long/short positions #timestamped on a spreadsheet in the public domain), it’s helped me learn how to make less mistakes faster.

 

No, that doesn’t mean I won’t make a big mistake like I did yesterday (I should have sold Restoration Hardware (RH) on the immediate-term TRADE overbought signal into the print, and bought it back on the red reaction).

 

It just means that I usually understand what I did wrong and why.

 

What makes this whole “taking profits” exercise all the more confusing is this un-cooperative little critter called research. I’ve built my entire research team (27 analysts) on a platform that is looking to make intermediate to long-term calls on stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. That means (sometimes) the immediate-term signal conflicts with the longer-term picture.

 

Sound familiar?

 

You bet it does. I don’t care if you are a day trader or someone who has bought and held since Nero. What is happening right here, right now, affects you in some way, shape, or form. If it doesn’t, you aren’t reading this anyway.

 

Back to the RH example. Brian McGough’s long-term view on Restoration Hardware (RH) is that the company will earn $8.00/share. So, even if the signal said it was immediate-term TRADE overbought at $80, why would I sell some of that? Well, that’s pretty straightforward too. Because it just had a 12% down day after signaling immediate-term TRADE overbought!

 

The risk management lesson here is that there is only a chance to take profits if you have faith that your process is repeatable. You have to understand why you make every move. Otherwise you’re just guessing. And one day, Mr. Market will take all those profits away.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now as follows (we have 12 Big Macro ranges in our Daily Risk Range product too):

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.86-3.03%

SPX 1662-1695

VIX 13.17-14.98

USD 81.41-82.09

Yen 98.75-100.91

Gold 1341-1391

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Take Profits - Chart of the Day

 

Take Profits - Virtual Portfolio


Kinder Morgan's Rebuttals Don't Hold Up

Summary

 

Kinder Morgan’s 9/18/2013 investor webcast did not refute our key arguments.  With respect to O&M expenses on the El Paso assets, the 1H13 FERC data does not show any relative increase from 2011 to make up for the significant ($222MM) drop in maintenance CapEx on these assets.  On the E&P CapEx issue, we continue to believe that Kinder Morgan is defending the indefensible.  Investors should consider the massive wealth transfer from KMP to KMI that this CapEx policy creates…~$200MM per year is a big number, despite Kinder Morgan’s attempts to downplay it.  We discuss these issues, and more, below.

 

But First, A Correction

 

In our 9/10/2013 report we incorrectly stated that, “By 2002, [SFPP’s maintenance expense] was down 99% from 1997 to $0.4MM.”  This line item was actually $38.0MM.  So, by 2001, SFPP’s maintenance expense was down 71% from 1997 to $11.5MM, before increasing to $38.0MM in 2002.

 

With respect to CALNEV, we incorrectly stated that, “In 2002, two years after Kinder Morgan acquired the system, [maintenance expense] was down 90% to $0.4MM.”  The correction reads down 47% to $2.3MM. 

 

The point, however, remains the same.  Kinder Morgan immediately cut maintenance expenses significantly on SFPP and CALNEV after acquiring them.  As we detailed in our 9/10/2013 report, the systems had "a rise in pipeline incidents" in the early 2000’s.  Likely in response to these incidents, Kinder Morgan increased maintenance spending at SFPP in 2002, and then replaced SFPP’s major lines with three “expansions,” totaling ~$450MM in CapEx.  All of that CapEx was allocated to expansion CapEx, despite the fact that the majority of the projects’ scopes were replacing existing capacity.  We consider this to be a major example of a cut, defer, replace and expand maintenance strategy, which Kinder Morgan could be in the early stages of on the 2012-acquired El Paso assets.

 

The corrected table with the relevant SFPP data is below.  We regret the errors, and thank Kinder Morgan for bringing them to our attention.

 

Kinder Morgan's Rebuttals Don't Hold Up - 1 

 

Where is the Increase in O&M Expenses?

 

“…most costs of real pipeline integrity are not in sustaining CapEx at all, they're in the expense category, and these for example include all of the running of ILI tools like smart pigs, and most of the repairs on anomalies that are made as a result of running those tools.  Those are all expense items or almost all of them are expense items.”

 

“We will spend this year $5.3 million on anomaly repairs [in sustaining CapEx]. So you say, "Oh, my goodness, that's a huge difference, they must not be repairing their pipeline." But let's look at the whole story.  In 2011, as I said, most of this is expensed, not sustaining CapEx.  When you do these digs and do these repairs, unless they are truly major repairs, FERC accounting requires you to put them over in the expense category.  With that in mind, in 2011 El Paso spent $40 million on anomaly repairs in sustaining CapEx and $33.9 million on anomaly repairs in expense.  So the total that they spent on anomaly repairs was $73.9 million.  In 2013 at Kinder Morgan, as I said, we're spending $5.3 million in anomaly repairs in sustaining CapEx, and we're spending $96.8 million in O&M [operations and maintenance] expense for anomaly repairs.  So the total in 2013 on these assets being spent on anomaly repairs, and that's where the rubber meets the road, is $102.1 million this year versus $73.9 million in 2011. We're spending $28 million more, but the net reduction in sustaining CapEx is $35 million…”

 

First, Kinder Morgan reconciled one year (2011) of El Paso's maintenance CapEx to Kinder Morgan’s level in 2013.  We presented 10 years of data, and over those 10 years, El Paso’s maintenance CapEx on its four big systemes (TGP, EPNG, SNG, and CIG) was, on average, $351MM per year.

 

Kinder Morgan's Rebuttals Don't Hold Up - 2

 

The crux of Kinder Morgan’s pipeline maintenance argument is that it is expensing a large amount of maintenance spending – “anomaly repairs” – that El Paso previously capitalized.  Kinder Morgan stated on the call that in 2011 El Paso spent $74MM on anomaly pipeline repairs with $40MM in maintenance CapEx and $34MM in O&M expense, and that Kinder Morgan, in 2013, will spend $102MM on anomaly repairs with only $5MM in maintenance CapEx but $97MM in O&M expense.  So, we are looking for a ~$63MM increase in O&M expense in 2013 from 2011 to more than offset the $35MM decline in maintenance CapEx.

 

However, we do not see it in the 1H13 numbers.  Annualizing the 1H13 numbers and comparing them to what El Paso spent in 2011, mains maintenance expense is down $61MM (93%), and mains operations expense is down $17MM (27%). 

 

Perhaps these “anomaly repairs” are in “Other Expenses (859),” as that category is up $78MM (155%) in 2013 from 2011.  We are not sure why pipeline repairs would fall into this “Other Expenses” category (or if they even do), which the Natural Gas Act defines as, “This account shall include the cost of labor, material used and expenses incurred in operating transmission system equipment and other transmission system expenses not includible in any of the foregoing accounts, including research, development, and demonstration expenses.” 

 

However, even if we assume that this is where all the pipeline anomaly repairs are, then there has been no net increase in pipeline O&M expenses from 2011.  The increase in “Other Expenses” equals the decrease in mains maintenance and operations expenses.  Further, taking together anomaly repairs in maintenance CapEx, mains O&M, and other expenses, that is down $35MM (16%) from 2011.

 

 Kinder Morgan's Rebuttals Don't Hold Up - 3

 

“Maintenance CapEx, as I said, gets attracted to things like compressor stations, maybe meter stations, delivery points, receive points, things like that, that are kind of the moving parts. There is very little that's attracted to the pipe because the pipe, if it's properly protected and coated and periodically inspected and repaired, really can last indefinitely.”

 

“The next category is mechanical and equipment [sustaining CapEx].  And the number there, savings, is $30 million.  And let me explain what that is. It has nothing to do with pipeline integrity. It embraces matters like compressor overhauls, automation projects, vehicles across all of our thousands of employees, and equipment used by field employees. Again, it has nothing to do with pipeline safety or integrity.”

 

Not only has Kinder Morgan cut mechanical and equipment CapEx by $30MM, it has also reduced non-pipeline (compressor stations, meter stations, other equipment, etc.) maintenance expenses by an additional $49MM.  Non-mainline maintenance expenses on TGP, EPNG, SNG, and CIG fell from $70MM in 2011 to $21MM in 2013 (annualizing the 1H13 numbers), or  down 70%.

 

Kinder Morgan's Rebuttals Don't Hold Up - 4

 

We recognize that Kinder Morgan was speaking to full-year 2013 numbers on the call, and of course, we are limited to only the 1H13 actual numbers.  So perhaps there are significant maintenance expenses coming in 2H13, though we will believe it when we see it.  The 1H13 numbers do not corroborate Kinder Morgan’s suggestion of a material increase in maintenance expenses relative to what El Paso spent in 2011 – in fact, they suggest the opposite.

 

Kinder Morgan's Rebuttals Don't Hold Up - 10a

 

Kinder Morgan Can’t Justify its E&P CapEx Policy


“That's expansion capital.  That's expansion capital in our book.  It's expansion capital in the partnership agreement and I think it's an investment under anybody's use of the term.  That's how we've been doing this for years.  It's well-known.   It's discussed.  It's the right way to do it.  I think the focus on whether or not the base business is growing or not is an inapt focus.  This is expansion capital.”

 

Kinder Morgan was adamant that its philosophy on assigning zero maintenance CapEx to its E&P operations, regardless of production and reserve levels, is “the right way to do it.” 

 

Right for KMI, wrong for KMP?

 

The partnership agreement is often cited as a defense for Kinder Morgan’s treatment of E&P CapEx by management and Kinder Morgan supporters, but we point out that the partnership agreement is not at all explicit on E&P assets, they are just conveniently omitted from the definition:

 

"“MAINTENANCE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES" means cash capital expenditures made to maintain, up to the level thereof that existed on the Closing Date, the throughput, deliverable capacity, terminaling capacity, or fractionation capacity (assuming normal operating conditions, including, without limitation, down-time and maintenance) of the assets of the Partnership and the Operating Partnership, taken as a whole, as such assets existed on the Closing Date and shall, therefore, not include cash capital expenditures made in respect of Capital Additions and Improvements. Where cash capital expenditures are made in part to effectuate the capacity maintenance level referred to in the immediately preceding sentence and in part for other purposes, the General Partner's good faith allocation thereof between the portion used to maintain such capacity level and the portion used for other purposes shall be conclusive.”

 

When asked this important question on the call, “…your partnership agreement says growth capital is anything that increases the capacity of the asset or the system.  What do you define as the asset or the system? Is it the well, is it the field, is it the entire E&P business? What is it?”  Kinder Morgan responded with, “Yeah, what we're doing is we're looking at that specific project and it's just typically not that hard.  I mean, if you look at the vast majority of our expansion capital projects, we're putting new pump stations, new compression, new pipeline looping, new tanks, new wells, you name it.  I mean, we're putting in identifiable new facilities and equipment.  And for that investment, we're doing an economic analysis and it's usually not that hard to do that.”

 

We don’t know what this answer means – we don’t believe that the question was even answered.

 

We fundamentally disagree with Kinder Morgan on its E&P CapEx policy.  In our view, it is misleading to call CapEx incurred just to keep production and reserves flat (or even declining volumes) “expansion CapEx” – because what, exactly, is this CapEx expanding

 

More importantly, this policy creates an enormous wealth transfer from KMP to KMI that should not be taking place.  For instance, with KMI in the 50/50 IDR split, KMP will pay ~$200MM in additional fees to KMI in 2013 alone (and, going forward, at least that amount on an annual basis) due to what is, in our opinion, a misclassification of CapEx.  Over the last 10 years, KMP has incurred ~$3.2B of E&P development costs (excluding acquisitions) – all of which have been considered expansion CapEx, resulting in ~$1.5B of additional IDR fees to KMI and dilution to KMP’s cap structure.

 

We don’t care what KMP’s partnership agreement says or doesn’t say.  And we don’t care how long Kinder Morgan has done it this way…  The fact that this is the way Kinder Morgan has done it for over a decade makes the situation worse, not betterThis policy is materially misleading, and results in KMI taking hundreds of millions of dollars from KMP every year that it should not be.


On “Gold-Plating”


“Now let me make it very clear that we don't gold plate our sustaining CapEx or anything else that we do at Kinder Morgan. For those of you who followed me for 16 and half years, you know that's just not our style. So we do not believe in spending sustaining CapEx, just to spend money and put it in a rate base and then earn on it. We don't believe – that was appropriate, let me say, maybe when I started out 33 years ago in this business, but that's not appropriate today, because everything that you do eventually gets into the rates you charge for your transportation services.”

 

In 1996, El Paso Natural Gas (EPNG) entered into a settlement with its shippers that established the rates, terms, and conditions of service that would apply for 10 years (until January 1, 2006).  The settlement “shielded” EPNG’s customers from a rate increase from 1996 – 2006.  Thus, in our view, it is highly unlikely that El Paso would “gold-plate” EPNG during these years.  In fact, if there were ever a time to cut maintenance spending, it would be after a lengthy rate settlement like this one.  But in each year from 2002 – 2005, EPNG spent $123MM, $103MM, $107MM, and $106MM of maintenance CapEx (+200% of depreciation), respectively.  And when the settlement period ended, there was no drastic change in EPNG’s maintenance CapEx.  We see no evidence of “gold-plating” at EPNG, or the other major El Paso assets.  In 2005, Southern Natural Gas (SNG) entered into a rate settlement that established a rate moratorium until March 1, 2009.  SNG’s maintenance CapEx data from 2002 – 2011 does not suggest any material change in spending before, during, or after this settlement.

 

“…everything that you do eventually gets into the rates you charge for your transportation services.”


Indeed.  So when Kinder Morgan reduces the rate base by spending maintenance CapEx below depreciation, and increases earnings by reducing O&M expenses, it is subjecting itself to future rate reductions if and when the FERC initiates a section 5 rate case.  And the FERC has been more aggressive in recent years in calling section 5 natural gas line rate investigations – EPB has already had adverse rate rulings at WIC and SNG in 2013 (see EPB’s 2Q13 10-Q).  And rate cases can be a significant risk to a major system like EPNG, TPG, SNG, or CIG.  For instance, Kinder Morgan’s Natural Gas Pipeline Company of America (NGPCA, 20% owned by KMI) had an adverse FERC section 5  rate case in 2010, resulting in phased-in rate reductions (FERC Docket RP10-147-000).  In 2009, NGPCA generated ~$644MM of operating EBITDA; in 1H13, operating EBITDA was down to just $148MM ($296MM annualized).  Since that 2010 rate case, NGPCA’s EBITDA has been more than cut in half.  If Kinder Morgan is “over-earning” on these El Paso assets today, that could mean future rate (and DCF) reductions.

 

Other Key Quotes & Points


“…what PwC signs off on is our GAAP financial statements and that's what they deliver an opinion on.”

 

Kinder Morgan’s auditor does not deliver an opinion on its non-GAAP financial measures, including sustaining CapEx and DCF, which is what (almost) everyone values the equity on.

 

---

 

“Something that's been mentioned out there is environmental and legal reserves.  If you look at our environmental and legal reserves, on the legal reserves, what we treat as a certain item is the legal reserve that relates to prior years. And if you go back and you listen to the second quarter call, what I said was any amount of that legal reserve that relates to the current year operations, we deduct in determining our DCF.  So what we're saying is take out the prior years because that does not relate to the entity's ability to generate cash on ongoing basis.”

 

We addressed this issue in original report, but to make the point again…  Kinder Morgan considers settlement payments for past overcharges “Certain Items” and adds them back to DCF.  In our view, it is fine to call a settlement payment a “Certain Item,” but it should not be excluded from DCF.

 

To understand this point, consider a scenario where Kinder Morgan overcharges shippers by $100MM per year for 5 years, and then loses a rate case such that annual revenues are reduced by $100MM going forward and Kinder Morgan is ordered to pay the shippers a cash settlement of $500MM for the past overcharges.  In Years 1 – 5, DCF is increased by $100MM per year, and that is split 50/50 between KMI and KMP ($250MM to KMI and $250MM to KMP), however, the cash settlement paid to remedy the overcharges ($500MM) is borne 100% by KMP because it is excluded from DCF.  Thus, in this situation, KMI actually gains $250MM while KMP loses $250MM. 

 

The questions we ask are:  Why should this settlement payment not be included in DCF, such that it is funded 50% by KMI and 50% by KMP?  And what incentives does this way of accounting for legal and environment reserves and settlements create for KMI?  

 

In 2010, Kinder Morgan paid $206MM to 11 shippers for past overcharges on the SFPP system.  This settlement was split 50/50 between the KMI/KMP.  However, in 2011, KMP made $154MM of additional settlement payments (to SFPP and CALNEV shippers), which were funded entirely by KMP.

 

---

 

“So let me say, again, our philosophy is not, is not, to skimp on maintenance CapEx and replace it with expansion CapEx. And the real test is, if we were doing that our return on invested capital would go down, but it hasn't.”

 

“If you look at the numbers that we present every January at our analyst conference, you see that our return on invested capital for the past several years has been between 13% and 14%. If we were loading up the denominator in that equation with lots of unwarranted expansion CapEx, you would see that go down and yet it is not. Also, if we were doing this nefarious action you would see our debt to EBTIDA change precipitously and it is not. It has remained relatively constant over the years.”

 

1) As discussed in our prior report, we do not believe that the returns that Kinder Morgan is referring to are an accurate representation of “returns on invested capital,” as they are really DCF returns that rely largely upon management’s sustaining CapEx numbers, which we take issue with.

 

2)  On segment-level basis, Kinder Morgan’s CO2 business has dramatically outperformed since 2009 due to strong oil prices.  We calculate that KMP’s CO2 segment return on assets in 2012 was ~40%, up from 13.5% in 2009.  This has masked some underperforming segments such as Natural Gas Pipelines and Terminals, as we show in the table below.

 

 Kinder Morgan's Rebuttals Don't Hold Up - 5

 

3)  Kinder Morgan states that its debt/EBITDA ratio has “remained relatively constant over the years.”  This is a line that the management team uses often – at the Barclays conference on 9/12/2013 management stated that, “So we have maintained the same basic debt to EBITDA ratio over this whole period of distribution growth.”  What management does here is it excludes the IDR payment from KMP to KMI.  In our view, it is misleading to exclude this significant (~$2B in 2013), recurring fee to the GP from the calculation of KMP’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio.

 

You can see from the chart below that when taking into account the distributions paid to the GP, KMP’s debt/EBITDA ratio has increased over the years; further, KMP was not 3.7x levered at YE12, it was 5.9x (including the market value of its interest rate swaps).

 

Kinder Morgan's Rebuttals Don't Hold Up - 6

 

---

 

“Now, let me say that it's hard to make industry comparisons about sustaining CapEx versus EBITDA or other categories. But last week, on September 9, some of you may have read Goldman Sachs came out with a piece in which they attempted to compare sustaining CapEx as a percentage of EBITDA spent by all the various large MLPs. Kinder Morgan in 2012, under this categorization spent 11.1% of EBITDA on sustaining CapEx. The industry average was 9.8%. For 2013, based on estimates, 9.8% for Kinder Morgan versus 8.9% for the industry average. Now, let me caveat very quickly that we don't believe that these comparisons are overly meaningful, because pipelines differ dramatically in the size of their pipe, in the age of their pipe, in where those pipes run and there are too many variables to reduce to a metric in our opinion. But I think – and we have not independently verified what Goldman or the other analysts put out, but I think it does show that we are not an industry outlier in this way.”

 

This analysis from Goldman deducts the IDR fee from the LP to the GP.  In our view, this is not an appropriate adjustment to make in such a comparison analysis, as MLPs are in different stages of the IDR “splits,” and some don’t have IDRs at all.  KMP has the highest IDR burden (as a % of total distributions) of all MLPs  In 2012, KMP’s EBITDA before Certain Items was $4,144MM and sustaining CapEx $285MM, putting sustaining CapEx-to-EBITDA at 6.9%, not the 11.1% referenced by Goldman and Kinder Morgan.  For 2013, KMP has guided EBITDA to $4,980MM and sustaining CapEx to $339MM (pre-CPNO), putting sustaining CapEx-to-EBITDA again at 6.9%, not 9.8%. 

 

---

 

“We think the key indicator is how the assets perform in various environmental health and safety metrics, for example, spills per mile or number of pipeline incidents in a given period. Now, we have – we are not naïve. We have 82,000 miles of pipeline and 180 terminals, and there will be incidents, no matter how hard we try, but we measure ourselves, our performance, on EH&S categories against 31 categories across all of our five business segments and in all of those, we are better than industry average.”

 

Kinder Morgan’s safety record from 2006 – 2012 is of little importance to us.  It’s acquisition of El Paso – then the largest natural gas pipeline company in the US – closed in May 2012, and Kinder Morgan sharply reduced maintenance spending on those assets in 3Q12.  So, we are only one year into this lower maintenance run-rate on these assets.  In our view, the safety and reliability record that matters here is the one we have yet to see.  This is the risk that Kinder Morgan investors should consider today.

 

With respect to Kinder Morgan’s legacy assets, we are more concerned with the Company possibly misclassifying what should be maintenance CapEx as expansion CapEx, as opposed to KM just not spending the capital outright.  In our view, proper maintenance CapEx would be CapEx needed to maintain unit volumes – such as production or throughput; asset capacity does not generate cash flows, and when maintenance CapEx is linked to asset capacity (as it is for Kinder Morgan), there is considerable wiggle room for what the Company can and will call maintenance/sustaining vs. expansion/growth CapEx.  We believe that Kinder Morgan uses this discretion to KMI’s advantage, and KMP’s detriment.  The three SFPP “expansions” are a good example.

 

It is also obvious in the E&P segment.  But also consider the Product Pipelines segment where Kinder Morgan’s annual expansion CapEx has average $170MM per year since 2008, while throughput volumes were down 2% per annum.  Further, Kinder Morgan appears to have a similar problem in its bulk terminals business.  58% of KMP’s Terminals Segment facilities are bulk terminals.  Kinder Morgan’s bulk tonnage in 2012 was 8% below what it was in 2008.  The volume growth in Kinder Morgan’s Terminals Segment has been only on the liquids side.

 

Conclusion

 

Kinder Morgan’s webcast last week did not refute our key concerns.  With respect to O&M expenses on the El Paso assets, the 1H13 FERC data does not show any relative increase from 2011 to make up for the significant ($222MM) drop in maintenance CapEx.  On the E&P CapEx issue, we continue to believe that Kinder Morgan is defending the indefensible.  Investors should consider the massive wealth transfer from KMP to KMI that this CapEx policy creates…~$200MM per year is a serious issue, despite Kinder Morgan’s effort to downplay it. 

 

 

Kevin Kaiser

Senior Analyst


real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

next