WRITING OFF LV LOCALS FOR 2009?

The Las Vegas locals market posted its third straight "better than bad" month where gaming revenues fell in the single digits.  While this isn't a same store decline - Station's Aliante and The M Resort opened in 2009 - the sequential trends are encouraging.  The 6 month moving average pivoted upward in April and comparisons ease, for the most part, as we work through the year. 

 

WRITING OFF LV LOCALS FOR 2009? - lv locals april delta chart

 

BYD is the big public traded entity in the Las Vegas locals market.  The negative thesis on BYD continues to center around the prospects for the Locals market.  We've all but written off 2009 and have instead focused on 2010.  Our contention is that population growth will likely boost 2010 gaming revenues into positive territory despite the obvious economic issues.  For 2009, we project a 13% decline in BYD's LV Locals revenues.  Obviously, if current trends continue, BYD's LV revenues could exceed our estimate.