Today's market action is coming in at higher-lows. Volume is abnormally low and volatility (VIX), while up +3.5% on the day, remains broken across durations.
These are some of the reasons why I have had nothing but BUY/COVER position changes in our virtual portfolio. This remains a market that everyone seems to be a professional all of a sudden in calling bubbles and crashes, when all of those tail risk events (both on the upside and downside) are in the rear-view.
This augers well for what I am increasingly convinced of - we are moving into a much narrower trading range. One that may very well see US Dollar down moves that ignite REFLATION hopes. One whose US Dollar recovery moves will inspire "flight to safety" fears.
Below I have outlined my latest thoughts on how that trading range looks, painting the upside of SP500 TRADE resistance in red (962, a higher-high) and downside TRADE support at (927, a higher-low). Below the 927 line I have another line of solid TRADE line support (3-week duration) at 909.
Trade the range, and enjoy the summer... for now...
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer