prev

EMPLOYMENT DATA POSITIVE FOR RESTAURANTS

While Friday’s jobs data were disappointing to some, the narrower data sets released this morning were, on balance, positive for the restaurant space.  Accelerated employment growth in the younger age cohorts suggests that sales at QSR and fast casual are likely to remain strong into 3Q.


Below, we discuss employment by age and restaurant industry employment.  These serve as proxies for demand and operator confidence, respectively, in our models.

 

Employment by Age (demand)


Employment growth by age was positive in July as the 20-24 YOA cohort saw growth accelerate to +205 bps from +175 bps in June, the 25-34 YOA cohort saw growth accelerate to +204 bps from +184 bps in June, the 35-44 YOA cohort saw growth accelerate to +53 bps from +28 bps in June, the 45-54 YOA cohort saw growth accelerate to -94 bps from -100 bps in June, and the 55-64 YOA cohort saw growth accelerate to +348 bps from +210 bps in June.

 

This is an important metric for the restaurant industry.  Given the discretionary nature of casual dining expenditure, and the highly-competitive nature of the industry, we infer that sustained employment growth in core demographics is necessary for continued comp growth in the absence of new unit growth or income per capita growth.  Within the QSR segment, we continue to find that a vast majority of the management teams we track consistently highlight the importance of employment growth to the success of their business.  The sequential accelerations in 20-24 YOA and 24-53 YOA cohorts should sit well with QSRs in 3Q13. 

 

EMPLOYMENT DATA POSITIVE FOR RESTAURANTS - EMPLOY by age

 

 

Restaurant Industry Employment (confidence)


The Leisure & Hospitality employment data, which leads the narrower food service data by one month, suggest that employment growth in the food service industry saw a slight sequential deceleration in July.  Leisure & Hospitality employment data registered a month-over-month gain of 23k (second chart below), a deceleration from the prior month’s 57k month-over-month gain. 

 

Sequential Moves


Leisure & Hospitality: Employment growth at +3.39% in July, down 4 bps versus June

 

Limited Service: Employment growth at +5% in June, down 3 bps versus May

 

Full Service: Employment growth at +2.65%, up 28 bps versus May

 

EMPLOYMENT DATA POSITIVE FOR RESTAURANTS - YOY employment growth

 

EMPLOYMENT DATA POSITIVE FOR RESTAURANTS - Knapp Comps

 

EMPLOYMENT DATA POSITIVE FOR RESTAURANTS - Leisure and Hospitality

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 


HST 2Q 2013 CONFERENCE CALL NOTES

In line

 

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Feel good about the outlook for 2013
  • Strong F&B and audio/visual in 2Q but do not believe strong pace to continue
  • Strong increases in ADR
  • Group and transient demand increased 2.5% - rate increased 3.5%; outpaced industrywide pace
    • Transient rev 6.4%
    • Group revs +6.2%
  • All segments benefited from mix shift as highest price transient demand increased by nearly 9%;  higher price corporate demand increased by over 7% 
  • Govt contracts fell more than 10%
  • Gov business represented 6% of its business; govt group business was up 35% and transient declined 4%
  • Remainder of 2013:  group will be weak in 3Q as middle of quarter tends to be influenced by discount business
  • 2014 group room nights and rates are higher YoY
  • Have not included any additional acquisitions in guidance
  • Sold Ritz-Carlton San Fran at $479k
  • Completed room renovation at Philly Airport Marriott
  • 2H 2013:  Short-term group will be weaker than last year while transient demand will remain robust
  • Houston:  top performing market, REVPAR +16.1%; shifted out lower rated group business; expect 3Q to outperform
  • Seattle:  +14.5% REVPAR; both group and transient drove rate; expect 3Q to be solid
  • Atlanta:  +11.4% REVPAR; NCAA Final Four drove rate; strong citywide calendar will lead to a strong 3Q
  • San Francisco:  +11.2% REVPAR; room rates will lead to a strong 3Q
  • Chicago:  +10.9% REVPAR; boosted by city-wide demand in May/June; F&B +17.6%; expect 3Q to continue to outperform
  • Los Angeles:  +8.8% REVPAR; expect solid 3Q as strong transient demand persists
  • NY:  +5.7% REVPAR; large increase in supply have suppressed rates; expect 3Q to hold up relatively well compared with rest of competition
  • Boston:  +2.2% REVPAR; expect 3Q to improve but will underperform the rest of the portfolio
  • DC:  +0.30% REVPAR; expect 3Q to underperform 
  • Latin America:  -10% REVPAR;  expensive renovations at JW Marriott in Mexico City - renovations will be completed in 3Q and unrest in Brazil
  • Calgary Marriott:  +3.6% REVPAR, despite flooding in Alberta, CA; flooding has adversely impact Calgary's biggest event - Calgary Stampede; expect 3Q to underperform
  • Euro JV:  +3.9% REVPAR (constant euros);  
  • Successful refi on Euro mortgage loan:  37MM euros, all-in rate of 4.5%
  • F&B up due to positive mix and solid catering contribution
  • Corporate group business was healthy 
  • REVPAR will continue to be driven by rate
  • Utility rates will likely increase
  • Insurance costs will increase at inflation rate
  • 20-24% of 2013 EBITDA will be earned in 3Q

Q & A

  • Weak group business in 3Q but stronger group business in 4Q
  • Group in 2H 2013:  room nights about flat but revenues will be up 3-3.5%
  • Transient pricing should accelerate further
  • Non-room revenue:  April was stronger in general; new retail at Marquis helped results
  • Forecast issuing another 5 million shares for the rest of 2013 but it will depend on M&A outlook
  • Continue to drive transient business into higher-priced segments
  • 2H 2013:  lower growth in other income (rentals/retail)
  • Hyatt Place Waikiki Beach return expectations:  unlevered IRR 9.5-10%; cap rate: 6%
  • Ritz-Carlton:  cap rate: 3%
  • Europe:  more single asset transactions, few portfolio on market because of challenging financial circumstances
  • Australia:  1-2 portfolios on market; overall feel good about the market despite lower commodity demand
  • One-time severence charge (Larry's departure at CFO) was incorporated in corp expense
  • Group:  37% of business (in the past, it was 40-41%)
    • Typically, 70-75% booked at beginning of year
    • Have 95% of rooms booked for rest of 2013
    • 2014 pace is higher
  • Would like to sell more properties but hope to be a net buyer
  • DC outlook:  not seeing group bookings pick up in 2014
  • NY outlook:  lots of new supply hurting rate growth; will host Super Bowl in 2014
  • Strong correlation between employment growth and corporate demand
  • Slow recovery in group
  • Probably Grand Hyatt DC would sell at close to where HST bought it; believes in the DC market long term

MACRO MEETS MICRO: ARE YOU HUNTING WHERE THE FISH ARE IN THE US EQUITY MARKET?

Takeaway: Hunt for longs and shorts by triangulating buy-side, sell-side and insider sentiment and positioning at the sector and industry levels.

SUMMARY BULLETS:

 

  • Using the S&P 500 Index as a proxy for the US equity market, we built a monitor that tracks performance, EPS and revenue revision trends, consensus ratings, short interest, option skew and insider buying/selling at both the sector and industry levels.
  • The purpose of the tool is to mechanically triangulate sell-side, buy-side and insider sentiment and positioning at the both the sector and industry levels, flagging extreme co-directional divergences as a contrarian opportunity on either the long or short side of a particular space.
  • At a bare minimum, our model can be used as a consistent, time-saving tool for generalist portfolio managers who are looking to quickly and efficiently identify which sectors and industries are good places to “hunt” for names that are more than likely either over or under owned.
  • Hopefully this all makes sense; email us if you have any questions, comments, suggestions or concerns regarding how we set up the model. We are happy to tweak it to your specific needs if this is a tool you can find additive to your existing idea generation process. We even have the capability of drilling down into a specific sector, industry or custom coverage universe, so don’t be shy about inquiring!

 

  • In the section below titled, “FINDINGS”, we list those sectors and industries that look interesting on either the long or short side, ranking them according to their degree of co-directional divergence with regards to the triangulation of said sentiment and positioning.
  • From the perspective of triangulating buy-side, sell-side and insider sentiment and positioning, the Metals & Mining and Diversified Telecom industries look particularly compelling on the long side. That being said, however, triangulating sentiment is just but one part of the equation; finding probable catalysts that will front-run a meaningful inflection in said sentiment and positioning is another matter altogether.
  • From our purview, we can name a 1,001 reasons why the Metals & Mining industry looks like a classic value trap here (namely the unwinding Mining CapEx Bubble), so we’d argue the market is getting this one right and should continue to get this one right. We don’t have a view on the Diversified Telecom industry, but we’ll leave that part up to you.
  • No sectors or industries currently stand out on the short side as particularly compelling from the perspective of triangulating buy-side, sell-side and insider sentiment and positioning.

 

In our latest attempt to help you uncover alpha in our favorite asset class (i.e. US equities), we us a more traditional top-down approach to scour the US equity market for longs and shorts at both the sector and industry levels. If you have yet to see our previous screen which quantified why investors should be increasing their allocations to domestically-domiciled corporations with a large US footprint, please refer to the following note: “ARE YOU LONG ENOUGH USD EXPOSURE AT THE MICRO LEVEL?” (7/25).

 

THE MODEL

Using the S&P 500 Index as a proxy for the US equity market, we built a monitor that tracks performance, EPS and revenue revision trends (four week deltas; sell-side consensus is lagging indicator), consensus ratings, short interest, option skew and insider buying/selling at both the sector and industry levels.

 

The purpose of the tool is to mechanically triangulate sell-side, buy-side and insider sentiment and positioning at the both the sector and industry levels, flagging extreme co-directional divergences as a contrarian opportunity on either the long or short side of a particular space.

 

At a bare minimum, our model can be used as a consistent, time-saving tool for generalist portfolio managers who are looking to quickly and efficiently identify which sectors and industries are good places to “hunt” for names that are more than likely either over or under owned.

 

MACRO MEETS MICRO: ARE YOU HUNTING WHERE THE FISH ARE IN THE US EQUITY MARKET? - 5

MACRO MEETS MICRO: ARE YOU HUNTING WHERE THE FISH ARE IN THE US EQUITY MARKET? - 7

 

ANALYTICAL CRITERIA

To determine if a particular sector or industry is a compelling place to “fish” in from the perspective of an investor or short-seller, we assigned the following criteria to each of the key metrics:

 

Sell-side scoring: (stocks penalized for extreme bullish sentiment; rewarded for extreme bearish sentiment)

 

  • NTM Consensus EPS Revisions: -1pt if the trailing 4WK revision is in excess of +1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; +1pt if the trailing 4WK revision is less than -1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; 0pts if within [1x] standard deviations of the mean
  • NTM Consensus Revenue Revisions: -1pt if the trailing 4WK revision is in excess of +1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; +1pt if the trailing 4WK revision is less than -1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; 0pts if within [1x] standard deviations of the mean
  • Bloomberg Consensus Ratings (1-5 scale): -1pt if the figure is in excess of +1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; +1pt if the figure is less than -1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; 0pts if within [1x] standard deviations of the mean

 

Buy-side scoring: (stocks rewarded for extreme bearish positioning; penalized for extreme bullish positioning)

 

  • Short Interest as a % of Float: +1pt if the figure is in excess of +1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; -1pt if the figure is less than -1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; 0pts if within [1x] standard deviations of the mean
  • 3M 90%/110% Moneyness Skew Spread: +1pt if the figure is in excess of +1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; -1pt if the figure is less than -1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; 0pts if within [1x] standard deviations of the mean
  • 3M 25-Delta Skew Spread: +1pt if the figure is in excess of +1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; -1pt if the figure is less than -1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; 0pts if within [1x] standard deviations of the mean

 

Insiders: (stocks rewarded for aggressive insider buying activity; penalized for aggressive insider selling activity)

 

  • 6M % Change of Insider Ownership: +1pt if the figure is in excess of +1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; -1pt if the figure is less than -1x standard deviations relative to the mean of the broader sample; 0pts if within [1x] standard deviations of the mean

 

Next, we assign a cumulative score of -1, 0 or +1 to each of the three buckets:

 

  • A score of -1 indicates the sum of a particular bucket is less than or equal to -1 (i.e. generally loved);
  • A score of 0 indicates the sum of a particular bucket is equal to zero (i.e. inconclusive); and
  • A score of +1 indicates the sum of a particular bucket is greater than or equal to +1 (i.e. generally hated).

 

Lastly, we amalgamate the cumulative scores into a final tally on an integer scale of -3 to +3:

 

  • +3pts: COMPELLING IDEA on the LONG side
  • +2pts: INTERESTING IDEA on the LONG side
  • +1pt: IDEA WORTH MONITORING on the LONG side
  • 0pts: INCONCLUSIVE on either the LONG or SHORT side
  • -1pt: IDEA WORTH MONITORING on the SHORT side
  • -2pts: INTERESTING IDEA on the SHORT side
  • -3pts: COMPELLING IDEA on the SHORT side

 

***Hopefully this all makes sense; email us if you have any questions, comments, suggestions or concerns regarding how we set up the model. We are happy to tweak it to your specific needs if this is a tool you can find additive to your existing idea generation process. We even have the capability of drilling down into a specific sector, industry or custom coverage universe, so don’t be shy about inquiring!

 

FINDINGS

In the section below, we list the various sectors and industries according to their respective scores (NOTE: sectors are underlined):

 

+3pts: COMPELLING IDEA on the LONG side:

  • Metals & Mining (7 stocks)
  • Diversified Telecommunication (5 stocks)

+2pts: INTERESTING IDEA on the LONG side:

  • Distributors (1 stock)
  • Household Products (4 stocks)
  • Telecommunication Services (6 stocks)

+1pt: IDEA WORTH MONITORING on the LONG side:

  • Internet & Catalog Retail (5 stocks)
  • Multiline Retail (8 stocks)
  • Personal Products (2 stocks)
  • Tobacco (4 stocks)
  • Energy (43 stocks)
  • Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels (31 stocks)
  • Capital Markets (13 stocks)
  • Healthcare Technology (1 stock)
  • Life Sciences Tools & Services (5 stocks)
  • Aerospace & Defense (11 stocks)
  • Electrical Equipment (4 stocks)
  • Professional Services (4 stocks)
  • Road & Rail (5 stocks)
  • Computers & Peripherals (8 stocks)
  • Semiconductors (17 stocks)
  • Materials (30 stocks)
  • Independent Power Producers (2 stocks)

0pts: INCONCLUSIVE on either the LONG or SHORT side:

  • (omitted for the sake of brevity)

-1pt: IDEA WORTH MONITORING on the SHORT side:

  • Automobiles (3 stocks)
  • Beverages (9 stocks)
  • Consumer Finance (4 stocks)
  • Real Estate Management & Development (1 stock)
  • Biotechnology (6 stocks)
  • Commercial Services & Supplies (9 stocks)
  • Construction & Engineering (3 stocks)
  • Industrial Conglomerates (3 stocks)
  • Internet Software & Services (5 stocks)
  • Utilities (31 stocks)

-2pts: INTERESTING IDEA on the SHORT side:

  • Diversified Consumer Services (1 stock)
  • Wireless Telecommunication Services (1 stock)

-3pts: COMPELLING IDEA on the SHORT side:

  • N/A

 

CONCLUSIONS

From the perspective of triangulating buy-side, sell-side and insider sentiment and positioning, the Metals & Mining and Diversified Telecom industries look compelling on the long side. That being said, however, triangulating sentiment is just but one part of the equation; finding probable catalysts that will front-run a meaningful inflection in said sentiment and positioning is another matter altogether.

 

From our purview, we can name a 1,001 reasons why the Metals & Mining industry looks like a classic value trap here (namely the unwinding Mining CapEx Bubble), so we’d argue the market is getting this one right and should continue to get this one right. We don’t have a view on the Diversified Telecom industry, but we’ll leave that part up to you.

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

July Employment - Not a Catalyst

We’ve beaten the drum repeatedly on the TREND slope of improvement in the labor market and the associated investing implication this week (links to those notes below) so we’ll keep it to the data here.  The short of today’s Employment release is that it's largely un-impactful to our positive intermediate term growth outlook for the domestic economy.   

 

We went to net neutral in our Real Time Alerts into yesterday afternoon’s advance, net short this morning, and would be selectively looking to add back long exposure on weakness, provided the $USD holds support.   

 

Given the general strength of the macro data thus far in July (Claims, ISM, PMI), we expect equity weakness to be met with a bid as we pullback towards immediate term support at $1690 on the SPX.

 

As summary review of this morning's Employment data:

 

NFP: Net Non-Farm Payrolls gains declined sequentially to 162K, but held flat on a YoY growth basis at +1.7% and accelerated +30bps on a 2Y basis.  

NFP Revision:  The net two month revision was -26K with May revised from +195K to +176K and June revised from +195K to +188K.  

Household Survey:  Net employment gains as measured by the Household Survey improved to +227K from +160K in June.   

Employment by Age:  All Age demographics saw accelerating employment growth in July.

Unemployment Rate:  The Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.4% from 7.6% as the total labor force registered a net decline alongside an increase of +263K in Total Unemployed and an increase of +227K in Total Employed. 

Labor Force Participation:  A positive change in the working age population alongside a net decline in the labor force pushed the Labor Force Participation Rate down to 63.40% from 63.46%.

State & Local Gov’t Employment:  State & Local Government Employment (14% of total workforce) accelerated from 0.03% to 0.10%, marking the 3rd consecutive month of positive employment growth with May marking the first month of positive growth since June of 2009.

Part-time/Temp Employment:  Temp employment increases by 8K MoM with YoY growth decelerating 40bps sequentially.  Part-time employment increased 174K MoM (77% of the total 227K gain as estimated by the household survey)  with YoY Growth accelerating 50bps sequentially.  

Industry Employment:  Retail, Business Services and Leisure the leaders this month at +47K, +36K, +23K, respectively.  Construction losing 6K on the month. 

Ave Weekly Hours for Private Employees:  Hours declined to 34.4 from 34.5 MoM and were flat vs. year ago levels. 

 

 

Please see this week’s notes for more detailed analysis and strategy discussion: 

 

  

Enjoy the Weekend.  

 

July Employment - Not a Catalyst - Employment Summary Table

 

July Employment - Not a Catalyst - Claims 080113

 

July Employment - Not a Catalyst - CPS vs CES

 

July Employment - Not a Catalyst - CES vs CPS MoM

 

July Employment - Not a Catalyst - Unemployment Rate

 

July Employment - Not a Catalyst - Employment by Age

 

Christian B. Drake

Senior Analyst 

 


Morning Reads on Our Radar Screen

Takeaway: Here's a glimpse at what some of our analysts are reading this morning...

Morning Reads on Our Radar Screen  - Screen Shot 2013 08 02 at 7.36.01 AM

 

 

MATT HEDRICK: MACRO

Putin Shows Global Mojo to Russians as U.S. Fumes Over Snowden (via Bloomberg)

 

 

 

KEVIN KAISER: ENERGY

Southwestern Energy swings to profit (via MarketWatch)

 

Mr. Sandman – Getting Proppant to the Wellhead (via RBN Energy)

 

 

 

TOM TOBIN: HEALTHCARE

Bio Hackers (via East Bay Express)

 

 

 

JONATHAN CASTELEYN: FINANCIALS

Tourre’s Junior Staff Defense Seen Leading to Trial Loss (via Bloomberg)

 

Glencore Leading in Metals Storage as Goldman, JPMorgan Cut (via Bloomberg)

 



[PODCAST] Expectations, Unemployment, and Heartache

Expectation is the root of all heartache, and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough talks through expectations and unemployment by the numbers on today's morning call.

 


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

next