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BIG WEEK IN MACAU AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS

Pulls the market back to trend (that's a good thing)

 

 

Macau is back on track for another 20% (give or take) growth month.  We remain bullish on Macau.  The near-term momentum is strong and we believe there is cushion in both the VIP and Mass business to offset the China macro issues.

 

Average daily table revenues (ADTR) grew 50% YoY this past week and up 13% over June’s ADTR.  With only 3 days left in the month, it’s pretty safe to say that July was a good month for the Macau operators.  We are raising our full month GGR growth projection (includes slots) to +19-21% YoY, up from 14-19%. 

 

The strength this past week looks volume driven both in the VIP and the Mass segments. While not included in the table games numbers, we are hearing the Electronic Table Games seem to be surging and could provide a boost above our slot forecast of HK$1.15 billion in July revenues. 

 

In terms of market share, July has been a big month for LVS and Galaxy.  LVS's share of 22.8% is not only above the 3 month trend but grew 170 bps month-to-date in only one week.  The big boxing match held at the Venetian on Saturday night probably drove most of the increase.  We heard the Mass floor at the Venetian was packed and it's safe to assume that a number of top VIPs were present as well.  The match featured the very popular boxer Zou Shiming who was the first Chinese fighter to ever medal at the Olympics.  We can only imagine how successful the Manny Paquio fight will be in November.

 

MPEL remains well below its recent share trend and Wynn and MGM are trending slightly lower.  LVS likely took share from all 3 operators, especially MPEL on Saturday.  MPEL is likely holding below the market but we also think that Altira had a couple of bad volume weeks.  However, MPEL remains one of our top picks along with MGM and LVS.

 

BIG WEEK IN MACAU AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS - mmm1

 

BIG WEEK IN MACAU AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS - mmm2


Gravity's Wisdom

This note was originally published at 8am on July 15, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Wisdom is not wisdom when it is derived from books alone.”

-Horace

 

Horace was the prominent Roman poet during Augustus’ reign. He died at the age of 56, in 8 BC. Despite his fear that his “books would eventually become food for vandal moths” (The Swerve, page 84), his wisdoms didn’t die alongside him.

 

History teaches those of us who care to study it more than we’ll ever be able to know. The more I read, the more I realize that I know very little. History also gives me a tremendous appreciation for both empathy and context.

 

If you can’t empathize with another person’s perspective, how can you criticize it? If you can’t contextualize today within yesterday, how can you handicap where we may be going next?

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Given that I have a degree in Keynesian economics, I feel relatively comfortable disagreeing with many of its assumptions. Admittedly, doing it with my own money instead of theorizing from a textbook helped expedite my learning process.

 

“Don’t think, just do” is something else that Horace wrote. But just doing isn’t enough. You have to be held accountable to what you are doing. Learning from your mistakes is an invaluable lesson. Doing it with other people’s money is called responsibility.

 

I suggest both the Fed and the President of the Unites States consider that when affecting either the value of our currency and/or the risk-free rate of return on our hard earned savings. On both major factors, there is responsibility in their policy recommendation.

 

How does this tie back to the US economy?

  1. Monetary and Fiscal Policy is causal to A) the value of a currency and B) the risk-free rate of return on that money
  2. Since WWII, there has never been a sustained US economic growth period without #StrongDollar and #Rising Rates

So why fight history? That’s what Bernanke is currently trying to do. If you are a Bernanke fan, at a bare minimum, you have to acknowledge that he is trying to “smooth” the pace of US Dollar gains and #RatesRising at this point. Why should we let him?

 

In the very immediate-term, we know what an acceleration in #StrongDollar and #RisingRates does:

  1. It smokes Gold and related #CommodityBubbles
  2. It beats down on Treasuries and related Bonds
  3. It eats into slow growth #YieldChasing investments (MLPs, Utilities, Junk Bonds, etc.)

And that’s all bad for who? Bingo – those who are long 1, 2, and 3. Meanwhile, who gets paid?

  1. Consumers - #CommodityDeflation = Tax Cut
  2. Savers – risk free rates of return on Savings accounts go up, finally
  3. Growth Investors – oh yes folks, this one is stealth

The first two compensation pools of people are obvious. Those populations, by the way, are much larger than the partnership group at PIMCO that gets paid in size if Bonds outperform growth stocks in perpetuity.

 

The third constituency is for crazy people like me. You know, people who don’t wake up every morning trying to scare the hell out of you, burn your currency, and hand your tax-dollars over to bankers who pay themselves. We are Growth Investors.

 

Whether I’m investing in a low-dividend yielding big cap growth stock like Starbucks (SBUX) or private growth company like Hedgeye, it’s all the same bet. We aren’t betting on the end of the world. We are betting on brands and people. We are betting they grow.

 

Put another way, here’s how the market has been scoring this for the last month:

  1. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stocks +5.1% versus Basic Materials (XLB) stocks -0.8%
  2. Low Yield stocks (i.e. growth stocks) are +5.1% in the last month and +26.3% YTD
  3. Top 25% EPS growth stocks (SP500) are +4.9% in the last month and +23.7% YTD

Bernanke, you got a problem with that?

 

I didn’t read this in your Keynesian Econ 101 book, bro. It’s on the tape. This is not only consistent with the 1983-1989 (Reagan) and 1993-1999 (Clinton) bi-partisan periods of US growth investing (where US GDP averaged over +4% during each period), it’s been a consistent market message for the last 180 days. Read and respect its message.

 

For the last 6 months, here are the #StrongDollar correlations to major market moves:

  1. SP500 = +0.75
  2. Commodities (CRB Index) = -0.78
  3. Gold = -0.74

No, no, no. The Mucker is not considered a wise man in Washington. Nor does he want to be. But please, my friends, please - don’t let an un-elected body of perceived wisdom at the US Federal Reserve mess this one up again. The gravity of Mr. Market’s wisdoms have spoken. They are the most pro-growth signals we have seen in years. Only your government can mess this one up this time.

 

I’ll be hosting our Q312 Global Macro Themes call at 11AM EST this morning. Ping Sales@Hedgeye.com if you’d like access.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr 2.44-2.77%

SPX 1642-1690

VIX 13.01-15.04

USD 82.45-83.88

Oil 106.48-110.29

Gold 1210-1298

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Gravity's Wisdom - Chartoftheday

Gravity's Wisdom - vp 7 15


July 29, 2013

July 29, 2013 - dtr

 

BULLISH TRENDS

July 29, 2013 - 10yr

July 29, 2013 - spx

July 29, 2013 - nik

July 29, 2013 - dax

July 29, 2013 - dxy 

July 29, 2013 - euroA

July 29, 2013 - oil

 

BEARISH TRENDS

 

July 29, 2013 - VIX

July 29, 2013 - yen

July 29, 2013 - natgas
July 29, 2013 - gold

July 29, 2013 - copper


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Island Economics

“An island cannot rule a continent.”

-Thomas Paine

 

I don’t know about you, but I find myself putting most consensus channels of market and “economic” information on mute these days. Life is simpler that way. Markets can be simpler too – if you take big government politics out of them.

 

Thomas Paine wrote “Common Sense” anonymously in 1776. It was only 48 pages long but one of the most influential writings in US history. As US historian, Joseph Ellis, recently wrote: “both the style and the substance of Common Sense were true to its title… replicating the vocabulary of conversations by ordinary Americans in taverns and coffeehouses…” (Revolutionary Summer, pg 11)

 

Sometime after filling up my tank with $4.24/gallon gas this weekend, I was reading that book at home. Then I got out of my chair and glazed over Obama’s comments about the next Fed Chairman in the NY Times. He said he wants a “Fed Chairman that can step back and look at that objectively and say, let’s make sure that we are growing the economy.” Then I started laughing.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

The final blow to anyone who is full of it is usually the truth. We see this in every aspect of our lives, so there’s no reason why any of these people who operate under the assumptions of big government Island Economics will be remembered by history any differently.

 

Although at varying paces, time tends to solve disconnects between fact and fiction. But in between now and then we have to deal with real-time market prices and expectations.

 

The expectations that the outgoing (and incoming) Fed Chairman is going to try to “grow the economy” with a weak currency are pervasive. Last week’s rumoring of either Larry Summers or Janet Yellen running the Fed had something to do with:

  1. America’s Purchasing Power (US Dollar) dropping -1.1% wk-over-wke
  2. Consensus buying the living daylights out of Gold futures and options contracts
  3. The net long position in Oil futures and options contracts hitting an all-time high

As history buffs like to remind short-term political types, all-time is a long time.

 

If the President of the United States thinks that having the all-time low (of any US President) in America’s Purchasing Power alongside the all-time high in gas prices is success, that’s just plain funny and sad all at the same time. #Half-BakedClassWarfareIsland

 

Mr. President, if you are more than just lip servicing people who are on fixed budgets, have Bernanke or Yellen get on 60 Minutes and announce to the world that the USA is raising interest rates next weekend. Both the Gold and Oil price will crash. And The People will like it.

 

Instead, here’s what futures and options contracts (i.e. our entire profession trying to front-run the Fed) are betting on:

  1. Total CFTC Commodities futures and options contracts were +7.4% wk-over-wk to +615,140 contracts
  2. Crude oil contracts were up another +10% wk-over-wk to +334,094 = all-time high
  3. Gold contracts ripped +26% wk-over-wk to +70,067 (up for 4 weeks in a row)

Yep. So much for the only bull case for Gold that made any short-term sense (that “everyone is short Gold”). Everyone is getting right levered long the Bernanke Bubble again! It’s still crashing YTD (-21.4%), but who cares? Isn’t this just great for the country?

 

To be clear, the opportunity to replace Bernanke with someone who doesn’t devalue the Dollar, monetize a record amount of US debt, and socialize crony banker losses, is one of the biggest President Obama has had in his career.

 

But does he get that?

 

I doubt it – that said, I did take my kids to see Monsters University yesterday, and that movie reminded me that there always is a chance! Meanwhile, Mr. Market is actually begging for a Fed head who gets having a #StrongDollar #RatesRising policy (i.e. a pro-growth policy):

  1. The Russell2000 is = +7.3% for the month-to-date, and +23.4% YTD
  2. Top 25% EPS Growth Stocks = +6.1% for the month-to-date, and +23.7% YTD
  3. Low Yield (growth) Stocks = +5.1% for the month-to-date, and +26.4% YTD

But, if Obama wants to get Summers or Yellen in there, we can always go back to the Island Economics that both he and Bush II had. How does a 0% rate of return on your hard earned savings accounts forever, $2000 Gold, and $160 Oil, sound?

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now as follows (*reminder: 12 Global Macro Risk Ranges are in our new Daily Trading Range product as well):

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.50-2.64%

SPX 1

Nikkei 131

USD 81.57-82.38
Brent 106.42-108.01

Gold 1

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Island Economics - vv. gas

 

Island Economics - vv. vp 29


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 29, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or 0.93% downside to 1676 and 0.49% upside to 1700.                                 

                                                                                              

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1A

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.26 from 2.25
  • VIX closed at 12.72 1 day percent change of -1.93%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 10am: Pending Home Sales M/m, June, est. -1.2% (prior 6.7%)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manuf, July, est. 6.8 (prior 6.5)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $2.75b-$3.5b in 2020-2023 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3M, $25b 6M bills
  • 4pm: USDA crop-condition ests.
  • U.S. Weekly Rates Agenda

GOVERNMENT:

    • NCUA deadline for comments on proposed rule permitting credit unions to engage in limited derivatives activities to mitigate interest rate risk
    • 3pm: Treasury issues quarterly borrowing estimates
    • Washington Weekly Agenda
    • Citigroup says Summers a consultant since at least 2012

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Publicis to merge w/ Omnicom to form world’s biggest ad co.
  • Perrigo to buy Elan for $8.6b to get Irish tax base
  • Michael Dell said to rule out raising offer w/ Silver Lake
  • Apple to probe claims of labor rights violations at Pegatron
  • Siemens to replace CEO as Loescher fails to mimic German peers
  • JPM commodities exit may sap liquidity until others step in
  • PPG to get $1.73b from sale of sunglass lens maker stake
  • Barclays slips, seen planning fundraising to lift capital
  • America Movil free to raise KPN stake above 30% as pact ends
  • Rockwood to sell clay-additives unit to Altana for $635m
  • Morgan Stanley allowed by judge to pursue Skowron fraud claim
  • Boeing urges more jet beacon checks after 787 faults found
  • Liberty Global raises stake in Ziggo to 28.5%
  • Amazon hiring 5,000 warehouse staff to meet high demand
  • China plans nationwide audit of government borrowings
  • China Molybdenum to pay $820m for Rio copper mine
  • Hugh Jackman’s “Wolverine” leads wknd ticket sales
  • U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Industrials, Energy, Health, Consumer, Tech, Media/Ent, Real Estate, Transports
  • North American M&A Agenda
  • Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
  • Unemployment probably fell: U.S. weekly economic preview
  • Jobs, Fed, Exxon Mobil, Zimbabwe: Wk Ahead July 29-Aug. 3

EARNINGS:

    • Loews (L) 6am, $0.73
    • Hertz (HTZ) 6am, $0.45
    • CNA Financial (CNA) 6am, $0.64
    • Simon Property (SPG) 7am, $2.07
    • Roper (ROP) 7am, $1.30
    • Lincoln Electric (LECO) 7:47am, $0.88
    • Tenneco (TEN) 8am, $1.09
    • Franklin Resources (BEN) 8:30am, $0.85
    • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Bef-Mkt, $1.57 - Preview
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 4pm, $(0.20)
    • Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) 4pm, $0.27
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) 4pm, $(1.69)
    • Express Scripts (ESRX) 4:01pm, $1.10
    • General Growth Properties (GGP) 4:01pm, $0.25
    • XL (XL) 4:01pm, $0.61
    • American Capital Agency (AGNC) 4:01pm, $0.91
    • Allison Transmission (ALSN) 4:01pm, $0.33
    • National Instruments (NATI) 4:01pm, $0.23
    • Sonus Networks (SONS) 4:01pm, $0.00
    • Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) 4:02pm, $0.21
    • Plum Creek Timber (PCL) 4:02pm, $0.23
    • CNO Financial (CNO) 4:02pm, $0.25
    • Anadarko Petroleum (APC) 4:05pm, $0.91
    • Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) 4:05pm, $1.06
    • Superior Energy (SPN) 4:05pm, $0.43
    • PMC-Sierra (PMCS) 4:05pm, $0.08
    • Hartford Financial (HIG) 4:15pm, $0.71
    • Northeast Utilities (NU) 4:15pm, $0.52
    • FMC (FMC) 4:15pm, $0.94
    • Herbalife (HLF) 4:15pm, $1.18
    • PartnerRe (PRE) 4:15pm, $0.80
    • Manitowoc (MTW) 4:27pm, $0.35
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) 4:30pm, $1.63
    • Community Health Systems (CYH) 4:30pm, $0.67
    • American Financial (AFG) 5pm, $0.85
    • Masco (MAS) 5:11pm, $0.20

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Silver Vault Opens in Singapore as Ranks of Asia’s Wealthy Swell
  • Hedge Funds Raise Gold Bets as Goldman Sees Decline: Commodities
  • Gold Falls in London Before Federal Reserve Policy Makers Meet
  • WTI Declines a Second Day; Prince Alwaleed Sees Fading Demand
  • Corn Declines to 33-Month Low on Record U.S. Crop, Soybeans Drop
  • Copper Swings Between Gains and Drops as China Orders Debt Audit
  • Palm Oil Drops as Rising Output Seen Spurring Record Stockpiles
  • Thailand’s Rice Output to Gain With Sugar Cane, Rubber in ‘13-14
  • Crude Bets Jump to Record High as Storage Falls: Energy Markets
  • Coffee Exports From Indonesia Seen Slumping as Beans Rot in Rain
  • Rebar Falls to Three-Week Low After Output in China Advances
  • China Refined Copper Output Edges Up to All-Time High: BI Chart
  • Rio Delays $5.1 Billion Expansion Pending Mongolia Approval
  • Gold Premiums in India Double as Supplies Drop on Import Curbs

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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