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Initial Claims: Looking Good

Takeaway: Another week of solid labor market improvement.

The US labor market continues to improve at an accelerating rate. This week, rolling Non Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) initial claims were 10.6% below their level last year. This compares with the 10.1% year-over-year improvement posted in the prior week and 9.5% improvement in the two weeks prior to that.

 

Initial Claims: Looking Good - steinerjobs

 

There are a couple potential explanations for the amount of strength we're seeing in the data.

 

The first is Obamacare prompting the hiring of more part-time and temp workers -- on the margin. The second is the auto industry, which normally shuts down its production plants for two weeks around July 4th. Auto workers are entitled to file initial unemployment claims for these two weeks. This year, however, due to stronger new car demand and critical, new model rollouts from GM and Chrysler, many of these plants have remained open. 

 

The bottom line here, however, is that the labor market continues to mend at an impressive rate. 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

jsteiner@hedgeye.com

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

jcasteleyn@hedgeye.com

 


INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG

While the Fed’s employment of its dovish-leaning “communication tool” continues to deliver a diminishing marginal impact on yield chase and inflation hedge assets, the positive gravity of the domestic macro data, and the labor market data specifically, continues to pull the growth trade (small/mid cap, higher beta, domestic, consumption oriented) higher. 

 

This week’s data extended the trend of positive acceleration in the labor market, which continues to buck the seasonal trend of the last 3 years and register ongoing improvement despite any existent fiscal policy related drag.   

 

Below is the breakdown of this morning's claims data, along with some sector specific takeaways, from the Hedgeye Financials team.  If you would like to setup a call with Josh or Jonathan or trial their research, please contact .

 

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Auto Tailwinds, But Robust Nevertheless


The labor market continues to improve at an accelerating rate. This week, rolling NSA initial claims were 10.6% below their level last year. This compares with the 10.1% YoY improvement posted in the prior week and 9.5% improvement in the two weeks prior to that.

 

There are a few potential narrative overlays (i.e. explanations) for the amount of strength we're seeing in the data. The first is ACA, i.e. Obamacare, prompting the hiring of more part-time and temp workers, on the margin.

 

The second is the auto industry, which normally shuts down its production plants for two weeks around July 4th. Auto workers are entitled to file initial unemployment claims for these two weeks. This year, however, due to stronger new car demand and critical, new model rollouts from GM and Chrysler, many of these plants have remained open. For instance, Ford said back in May that 21 of its North American factories will shut for only one week this summer. GM said it would idle its factories for only short periods, and Chrysler said it would close just 4 of its 10 North American assembly plants during the traditional two-week break.

 

While it's tough to know how many workers this positively affected, it is likely to exert some upward pressure on SA claims in the week or two ahead.

 

The bottom line here, however, is that the labor market continues to mend at an impressive rate. We think credit-levered, value Financials (BAC, COF) remain optimal ways to play this on the long side. BAC's results on Tuesday were very strong, fueled primarily by housing's improvement and its associated benefits to falling lititgation costs, but underpinning that is the recovery in labor. COF reports tonight. We recently published a note outlining our bullish view on COF across all three durations (short, intermediate and long term).

 

The Data

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims fell 26k to 334k from 360k WoW, as the prior week's number was revised down by -2k to 358k.

 

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were lower by 24k WoW. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -5.25k WoW to 346k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -10.6% lower YoY, which is a sequential improvement versus the previous week's YoY change of -10.1%

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - JS 1

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - JS 2

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - JS 3

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - JS 4

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - JS 5

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - JS 7

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - JS 6

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT


Morning Reads on Our Radar Screen

Takeaway: A quick look at stories on Hedgeye's radar screen.

Keith McCullough – CEO

China’s Richest Man Sees Economic Growth Slowing in Second Half (via Bloomberg)

China June Home Prices Rise as Big Cities Post Record Gains (via Bloomberg)

Russian Court Convicts Opposition Leader (via New York Times)

Greek MPs back public sector cuts amid protests (via BBC)                                                                    

U.K. Retail Sales Increase as Discounts Spur Consumer Demand (via Bloomberg)

 

Morning Reads on Our Radar Screen - china

 

Josh Steiner & Jonathan Casteleyn – Financials

Jobless claims fall sharply in positive sign for hiring (via Reuters)

Morgan Stanley Tops Analysts’ Estimates on Trading Revenue (via Bloomberg)

 

Howard Penney – Restaurants

McDonalds' Minimum Wage Gaffe (via YouTube)

 

Jay Van Sciver – Industrials

Jim Chanos: Caterpillar is doomed (via CNN)

 

Matt Hedrick – Macro

Italy: A new (and unexpected) ally on EU reform for David Cameron? (via Open Europe Blog)

 

Tom Tobin – Healthcare

Reducing health care costs easier said than done (via Albuquerque Business First)

Mount Sinai merges with owner of Beth Israel, St. Luke's creating one of the nation's largest not-for-profit health systems (via NY Daily News)


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.57%

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG

Takeaway: Another week of solid labor market improvement. Take advantage of still-cheap, credit-levered value names on the long side on this data.

Auto Tailwinds, But Robust Nevertheless

The labor market continues to improve at an accelerating rate. This week, rolling NSA initial claims were 10.6% below their level last year. This compares with the 10.1% YoY improvement posted in the prior week and 9.5% improvement in the two weeks prior to that. There are a few potential narrative overlays (i.e. explanations) for the amount of strength we're seeing in the data. The first is ACA, i.e. Obamacare, prompting the hiring of more part-time and temp workers, on the margin. The second is the auto industry, which normally shuts down its production plants for two weeks around July 4th. Auto workers are entitled to file initial unemployment claims for these two weeks. This year, however, due to stronger new car demand and critical, new model rollouts from GM and Chrysler, many of these plants have remained open. For instance, Ford said back in May that 21 of its North American factories will shut for only one week this summer. GM said it would idle its factories for only short periods, and Chrysler said it would close just 4 of its 10 North American assembly plants during the traditional two-week break. While it's tough to know how many workers this positively affected, it is likely to exert some upward pressure on SA claims in the week or two ahead.

 

The bottom line here, however, is that the labor market continues to mend at an impressive rate. We think credit-levered, value Financials (BAC, COF) remain optimal ways to play this on the long side. BAC's results on Tuesday were very strong, fueled primarily by housing's improvement and its associated benefits to falling lititgation costs, but underpinning that is the recovery in labor. COF reports tonight. We recently published a note outlining our bullish view on COF across all three durations (short, intermediate and long term).

 

The Data

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims fell 26k to 334k from 360k WoW, as the prior week's number was revised down by -2k to 358k.

 

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were lower by 24k WoW. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -5.25k WoW to 346k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -10.6% lower YoY, which is a sequential improvement versus the previous week's YoY change of -10.1%

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 1

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 2

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 3

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 4

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 5

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 6

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 7

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 8

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 9

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 10

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 11

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 12

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 13

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 19

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 14

 

Yield Spreads

The 2-10 spread fell -7.4 basis points WoW to 219 bps. 2Q13TD, the 2-10 spread is averaging 184 bps, which is higher by 13 bps relative to 1Q13.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 15

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOS HELPED BUT THE CORE TRENDS REMAIN VERY STRONG - 16

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

 


[PODCAST] BERNANKE "VIAGRA TRADE" IS OVER

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says it's "bye-bye" to Bernanke's little blue pills. The Viagra trade is over. Among other pieces of post-Viagra investing advice, McCullough says beware the Bubonic plague trade which is Gold. 

 

 

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INVITE: CAT SHORT REVIEW/UPDATE TODAY @1PM

Takeaway: Please join us today at 1PM for a review and update on our CAT short thesis. Dial-in and materials below.

INVITE: CAT SHORT REVIEW/UPDATE TODAY @1PM - vf1

 

We will be presenting a flash conference call reviewing our short thesis on Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) titled "Short CAT - What You Need To Know Now" on Thursday, July 18th at 1:00pm EDT. We have published several pieces outlining our short thesis on CAT. After a decade of being a primary beneficiary of the boom in commodity prices CAT may be in a very vulnerable position.

 

 

OBJECTIVE

Detail our short thesis on CAT, why the Company will struggle to meet company targets and street expectations.

 

CALL OVERVIEW 

  • Super-cycle Downside: Resources-related capital spending is likely to decline much more than estimates expect
  • Commodity Markets/Emerging Markets:  Even if emerging markets rebound, which we do not see, commodity supply remains a major headwind
  • Acquisitions:  CAT not only overpaid for ERA and Bucyrus, but also may have benefited from the flexibility in purchase accounting
  • Receivables Growth and Inventories:  High inventories and rapid receivables growth have left CAT with weak free cash flow and other challenges
  • Abandon 2015 Targets?  That would be fast, since they were established in the fall of 2012
  • Valuation:  A low-ish multiple typically means peak earnings, not cheap equity


CALL DETAILS

  • Toll Free Number:  
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 428976#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE


CONTACT

Please email if you have any questions.


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