THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 11, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 42 points or 1.55% downside to 1627 and 0.99% upside to 1669.                     

                                                                                                          

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.22 from 2.27
  • VIX closed at 14.21 1 day percent change of -0.98%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index, M/m, June, est. 0.0% (pr. -0.6%)
  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, week of July 6, est. 340k
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Cons Comfort, week of July 7 (pr. -27.5)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11am: Fed’s Tarullo testifies on regulation to Senate
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 7/15/2017-2/15/2043 sector
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 30Y bonds in reopening
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, June, est. $100b

GOVERNMENT:

    • 9am: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission holds roundtable on deterring cyber theft
    • 11am: Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Cmte hearing on “Mitigating Systemic Risk Through Wall Street Reforms,” w/ Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, Comptroller of the Currency Tom Curry
    • 3:30pm: ACLU, Assn for Molecular Pathology briefing on Supreme Court decision to strike down patents on human genes

WHAT TO WATCH

  • June U.S. retail sales likely helped by heat, pent-up demand
  • Euronext will be spun off in IPO mid-2014, Cerutti says
  • Microsoft reorganization to be announced today: AllThings D
  • BOJ keeps monetary policy on hold as recovery signs seen
  • U.S., Europe said poised to announce agreement on swap rules
  • PC shipments fall for 5th quarter even as U.S. decline slows
  • Bank Indonesia raises benchmark rate more than forecast to 6.5%
  • Luxembourg PM to resign amid security service spying probe
  • Heineken sells Hartwall unit to Royal Unibrew for $614m
  • Sprint drops Nextel from co. name as SoftBank takes control

EARNINGS:

    • Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) 7am, $0.71
    • Corus Entertainment (CJR/B CN) 7am, C$0.51
    • Progressive (PGR) 8:12am, $0.41
    • Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) 6pm, $0.57

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • IEA Sees 20-Year Supply Peak Outpacing Demand Recovery in 2014
  • Corn Bets Turn Bearish as Rain Revives U.S. Crops: Commodities
  • Thai Sugar Harvest Seen at Record Adding to Global Surplus
  • WTI Trades Near 15-Month High as U.S. Crude Inventories Plunge
  • Copper Reaches Three-Week High on Outlook for Further Stimulus
  • Gold Nears $1,300 After Fed’s Bernanke Backs Sustained Stimulus
  • Commodity Traders Face New Squeeze as Storage Congestion Spreads
  • Crude-by-Rail Profits Fall as WTI-Brent Narrows: Energy Markets
  • Raw Sugar Rebounds in New York After Brazil Raises Interest Rate
  • Japan Purchases Alternatives to Oregon Wheat in Tender
  • Zinc May Advance to $1,974 on Retracement: Technical Analysis
  • South Africa Mine Wage Talks Open With Highest Demands on Record
  • Iron Ore Bests Metals as Prices Have Gone Nowhere Since 1913
  • Corn Gains as Investors Weigh Stress Risk to Record U.S. Crop

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more