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ISLE F4Q 2013 CONFERENCE CALL NOTES

Regional recovery? Not yet

 

 

"Consistent with other regional gaming companies, the quarter presented a difficult operating environment in our markets, as the combination of continuing economic challenges, changes in payroll tax rates and the delay in income tax refunds led to softer business levels at our casinos.  In addition, when compared to the extremely mild winter in fiscal 2012, there was significant impact from weather-related disruptions in the fiscal 2013 quarter.  Finally, the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012 contained an extra 14th week compared to 13 weeks in this year's quarter.  Adjusting for the extra week in fiscal 2012 and last year's insurance recoveries, we believe our results were in-line with other regional casino operators."

 

-ISLE CEO Virginia McDowell 

 

 

CONF CALL

  • Continues to invest marketing dollars to Cape Girardeau 
  • Cape Girardeau ramp slower than expected 
  • Boonville casino floor renovations will be completed in June
  • Debt: $1.16 billion; ($155MM outstanding on revolver; Senior 5 7/8% Notes: $350MM; Senior Notes 7.75%: $300MM; Subnotes $350MM; $4MM other debt

Q&A

  • Slight uptick in spend per visit from rated players; overall visitation was down (flat-to-slightly down visitation for rated players)
  • Other than Bettendorf project, not much in terms of large scale developments
  • Bank line: $150MM drawn on $300MM revolver; $90MM excess capacity; covenant leverage: 6.4%-6.5%
  • If you take out extra week impact, results still lower YoY
  • Wouldn't buy back stock until leverage goes to 5x
  • No comments on selling company
  • Drew customers from Caruthersville due to increased marketing spend at Cape G.  But will rationalize that spend going forward.
  • More conservative on insurance costs going forward 
  • Houston market remains underpenetrated
  • Weather impact: Davenport closed for 8 days due to flooding
  • Mississippi: cashed $9.5MM in tax refund checks last year; this year, it was <$7.5MM
  • Philly casino: at most, capital investment would be $25MM
    • Expect a decision by regulatory authority by the end of the year
  • SSS April was down 4-5% across regional markets; overall regional trends pretty steady
  • May trends: no change in consumer behavior or patterns

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE

Takeaway: On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the labor market is showing signs of cooling off. This is the same illusion that's been there for 3 years.

Labor Market: Divergences Finally Becoming Apparent

The funny thing about economic data series is that the inflection breaks often aren't apparent until well after the fact, i.e. 20-20 hindsight. That's why its important to spot things early and try and understand a) why they're happening and b) the implications. 

 

With that in mind, the divergence between the SA and NSA initial claims data is finally beginning to become apparent. As the first chart below shows, the seasonally-adjusted data is now almost flat in the March to present time period (the purple hatched line is almost level). This is an inflection from the August 2012-February 2013 environment of notable negative slope (steadily improving claims). The inflection is expected as it is following the same trend over the past three years, owing to faulty seasonal adjustment factors in the government's model. It's important because the market still cues off the SA data, so, to the market's eye, the data is beginning to stagnate.

 

In the second chart we show the NSA data, which continues to improve at a well-above trend rate. Note the negative slope in the black line vs. the positive slopes in the previous years' lines. In this case, negative is good, because it depicts accelerating improvement.

 

To the extent the recent sell-off continues, likely on the back of the Fed-in-a-box narrative (good news = bad, bad news = bad), we think this labor market data makes it clear that investors should be buying red, but doing so with the understanding that the labor data will continue to appear to deteriorate through August (3 more months) before again beginning to turn positive.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 1

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 2

 

The Data

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims fell 8k to 346k from 354k WoW, as the prior week's number was revised up by 3k to 357k.

 

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were lower by 11k WoW. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims rose 4.5k WoW to 352.5k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -6.6% lower YoY, which is a sequential deterioration versus the previous week's YoY change of -6.9%

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 3

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 4

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 5

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 6

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 7

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 8

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 9

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 10

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 11

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 12

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 13

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 19

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 14

 

Yield Spreads

The 2-10 spread fell -2.3 basis points WoW to 180 bps. 2Q13TD, the 2-10 spread is averaging 160 bps, which is lower by -7 bps relative to 1Q13.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 15

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: STAGNATION MIRAGE - 16

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

 


SHORT THE YEN, BUY THE NIKKEI?

Takeaway: If you’re bearish on US growth, get long the yen and short the Nikkei with impunity. Do the opposite if you’re constructive on US growth.

This note was originally published June 05, 2013 at 13:28 in Macro

SUMMARY BULLETS:

 

  • The "Third Arrow" of Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" agenda wildly disappointed investor expectations. We detail those disappointments and a widely-misunderstood critical policy delta in the first part of the note below.
  • Increasingly, it appears that we remain among the few firms left with an explicitly bullish outlook for US economic growth and we’ll maintain that view until our leading indicators tell us reverse course. For now at least, 10Y bond yields (bullish TREND & TAIL), the SPX (bullish TREND & TAIL), the DXY (bullish TREND & TAIL), Gold (bearish TREND & TAIL) and Oil (bearish TREND & TAIL) all continue to state that the positive trend in US economic growth remains intact. The recent ISM data definitely sounds the alarm bells, but determining if there is an actual fire to put out requires more than one month of data.
  • As such, we continue to be inclined to short the yen and buy the dollar with respect to the intermediate-term TREND. As the USD/JPY cross nears the low end of our immediate-term risk range, we think now is a good spot to add to positions or put the full trade back on to the extent you have previously booked gains.
  • While we are certainly not ones to catch falling knives, we do think this is as good of a buying opportunity in Japanese equities as “investors” have gotten since we were calling for Japanese equity reflation last NOV – especially in the context of our base case scenario of 110 and 125 on the USD/JPY cross by EOY ’13 and EOY ’14, respectively.
  • That is, of course, if the Nikkei 225 Index’s TREND line (under major duress as of the latest close) holds. If the breakdown is confirmed, however, expect us to start sending you “shorting Japanese equities” trade alerts in the near future.
  • All told, if you’re bearish on US growth from here, get long the yen and short the Nikkei with impunity. If, however, you’re constructive on US growth from here – like us – do just the opposite. Don’t make this policy-induced gong show any more complicated than that.

 

"THIRD ARROW" OR "FIRST RODEO"? 

Today, Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe unveiled the “Third Arrow” of his Abenomics agenda, which mostly consisted of a series of grand targets for various economic measures with little-to-no details for how to achieve them:

 

  • Promote a +¥1.5M increase in gross national income per capita over 10 years – implying a CAGR of +3.4%;
  • Increase capital spending by +10% to ¥70T over the next three years;
  • Deregulate the energy, health and infrastructure sectors;
  • Boost power-related investment +150% to ¥30T;
  • Set up special economic zones in Tokyo and other large cities to attract foreign investment;
  • Double FDI to ¥35T by 2020;
  • Double exports from small and medium-sized companies by 2020;
  • Double farm exports by 2020;
  • Triple infrastructure exports, such as bullet trains and nuclear plants, to ¥30T; and
  • Have 70% of all exports covered by free trade deals – including the Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership – by 2018 (up from 19% now).

 

Taken in their entirety, these goals are designed to perpetuate an average of +3% nominal GDP growth and +2% real GDP growth over the next decade. Also worth noting is the disappointing lack of targets for reforming Japan’s public pension allocation and lowering corporate taxes, which, at 37%, are the second highest in the OECD.

 

It goes without saying that there’s a lot of politicized junk food to sift through from Abe’s speech today, but the updated GDP targets were by far the most important takeaway as it relates to Japanese and globally-interconnected financial market risk. If these nominal and real GDP targets are, in fact, accurate, this inherently takes down the LDP’s former +2% inflation target to +1%. Ultimately, this implies that the BOJ doesn’t have to be as aggressive in pursuing its monetary easing agenda.

 

SHORT THE YEN, BUY THE NIKKEI? - dari

 

It is rather unclear to us how Abe & Co. plan to adhere to a potentially lower inflation target in the context of what would be an unprecedented string of wage growth with respect to the post-bubble Japanese economy. More clarity in needed as it relates to whether or not the CPI target has truly been revised down -100bps to +1%; we’ll learn for sure by the end of next week (ether during the upcoming “Third Arrow” ratification process that is scheduled to take place JUN 12-14 in the Diet or at the BOJ’s JUN 11 board meeting).

 

THE ABENOMICS TRADE: WHERE TO FROM HERE?

All in, the JPY is up +3.8% vs. the USD since MAY 22, which compares to about +1.7% for the EUR (likely dragged up on a correlation-weighted basis). Going back to our 5/10 note titled: “TRADING ABENOMICS FROM HERE”, the sustainability of the Abenomics trade we authored (short yen; long Japanese equity reflation) has become primarily a function of the slope of US economic growth expectations and not a function of Japanese policy as it had been prior to then.

 

The only meaningful Japanese catalyst left is the JUL Upper House elections, but even that is turning out to be less of a catalyst as its outcome becomes increasingly obvious: per a recent Nikkei Newspaper poll, almost half of voters planned to vote for the LDP, compared with 6% for the next largest party (DPJ). An LDP majority would give Abe & Co. free reign to delay fiscal reform to the extent they aren’t getting the results they are currently hoping for on the GDP growth front several quarters from now. Recall that outgoing Prime Minster Yoshihiko Noda of the DPJ staked his political career and his Party’s fate on passing the VAT hike legislation.

 

On the flip side, the only probable catalysts we see that could derail the Abenomics trade are likely to continue coming from Japan at this point – much akin to today’s disappointing “Third Arrow” speech and Friday’s news that Japan’s FSA tightened rules on forex margin trading, which were designed to “protect investors” and “limit speculation”.

 

Needless to say, the latest US mini-growth scare we’ve experienced over the past 2-3 weeks has weighed on the USD. Ironically, to us at least, the scare is being perpetuated by rising interest rates – which have historically signaled an acceleration in the trend growth rate(s) of US GDP. Consensus has become so hooked on financial repression that investors are broadly missing what may wind up being the most obvious economic signal in recent memory.

 

SHORT THE YEN, BUY THE NIKKEI? - 2

 

Increasingly, it appears that we remain among the few firms left with an explicitly bullish outlook for US economic growth and we’ll maintain that view until our leading indicators tell us reverse course. For now at least, 10Y bond yields (bullish TREND & TAIL), the SPX (bullish TREND & TAIL), the DXY (bullish TREND & TAIL), Gold (bearish TREND & TAIL) and Oil (bearish TREND & TAIL) all continue to state that the positive trend in US economic growth remains intact. The recent ISM data definitely sounds the alarm bells, but determining if there is an actual fire to put out requires more than one month of data.

 

SHORT THE YEN, BUY THE NIKKEI? - UST 10Y

 

SHORT THE YEN, BUY THE NIKKEI? - SPX

 

SHORT THE YEN, BUY THE NIKKEI? - DXY

 

SHORT THE YEN, BUY THE NIKKEI? - GOLD

 

SHORT THE YEN, BUY THE NIKKEI? - OIL

 

SHORT THE YEN, BUY THE NIKKEI? - ISM Manfuacturing   Services

 

As such, we continue to be inclined to short the yen and buy the dollar with respect to the intermediate-term TREND. As the USD/JPY cross nears the low end of our immediate-term risk range, we think now is a good spot to add to positions or put the full trade back on to the extent you have previously booked gains.

 

SHORT THE YEN, BUY THE NIKKEI? - USDJPY

 

Indeed, the Abenomics trade has experienced a fairly meaningful correction in recent weeks (the Nikkei 225 is down -16.7% from its 5/22 YTD peak; the USD/JPY cross is down -3.8% from its 5/17 YTD peak); on the heels of this demonstrable pullback, the Nikkei 225 Index is now broken TRADE and TREND on our quantitative risk management score.

 

While we are certainly not ones to catch falling knives, we do think this is as good of a buying opportunity in Japanese equities as “investors” have gotten since we were calling for Japanese equity reflation last NOV – especially in the context of our base case scenario of 110 and 125 on the USD/JPY cross by EOY ’13 and EOY ’14, respectively. That is, of course, if the Nikkei 225 Index’s TREND line (under major duress as of the latest close) holds. If the breakdown is confirmed, however, expect us to start sending you “shorting Japanese equities” trade alerts in the near future.

 

SHORT THE YEN, BUY THE NIKKEI? - 10

 

All told, if you’re bearish on US growth from here, get long the yen and short the Nikkei with impunity. If, however, you’re constructive on US growth from here – like us – do just the opposite. Don’t make this policy-induced gong show any more complicated than that.

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst


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Playing to Win

Client Talking Points

JAPAN

Was it a bird? Was it a plane? Nope. It was Shinzo Abe (on the cover of The Economist last month flying with a Superman cape). But let's remember, he’s still the same PM who failed in Japan last time. And now the Nikkei has snapped both our TRADE and TREND lines of support (TREND = 13,841). Overnight down another -0.85% and down -17.4% since May 22. Yen has a wall of resistance in the 97-98 range vs USD so this will remain volatile

CHINA

So the Chinese did make up the export numbers last month and decided to make them up at a slower rate this month (May Exports +7% vs 14% last month). Both Chinese and Hong Kong stocks got blasted with -1.1% drops. The Hang Seng is now bearish TREND in our model with TREND line resistance confirmed up at 22,621.

10YR UST

The next 48 hours...They will be critical on the employment #GrowthAccelerating side of the equation. We've got jobless claims on tap today, which have been fantastic as of late, and the jobs report tomorrow, where expectations are low. The 10yr Yield is in a Bullish Formation (bullish across all 3 durations in our model) with no resistance to 2.23%. Higher-lows of immediate-term support down at 2.01% into the data.

Asset Allocation

CASH 23% US EQUITIES 30%
INTL EQUITIES 18% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 0% INTL CURRENCIES 29%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
IGT

Decent earnings visibility, stabilized market share, and aggressive share repurchases should keep a floor on the stock.  Near-term earnings, potentially big orders from Oregon and South Dakota, and news of proliferating gaming domestically could provide near term catalysts for a stock that trades at only 11x EPS.  We believe that multiple is unsustainably low – and management likely agrees given the buyback – for a company with the balance sheet and strong cash flow as IGT.  Given private equity’s interest in WMS (they lost out to SGMS) – a company similar to IGT that unlike IGT generates little free cash – we wouldn’t rule out a privatizing transaction to realize the inherent value in this company.  

WWW

WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow.

FDX

With FedEx Express margins at a 30+ year low and 4-7 percentage points behind competitors, the opportunity for effective cost reductions appears significant. FedEx Ground is using its structural advantages to take market share from UPS. FDX competes in a highly consolidated industry with rational pricing. Both the Ground and Express divisions could be separately worth more than FDX’s current market value, in our view.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

"The Japanese economic gravity smoothing experiment doesn’t seem to be going so swell"

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“There are no environments where you're only going to win, because life just isn't like that.”

- Bobby Orr

STAT OF THE DAY

American men spend 53% of their leisure time on weekends and holidays watching television, 4% of their time reading.


UA: Exceeding Our Expectations

Takeaway: UA exceeded our expectations at its Analyst Meeting. We wouldn't chase it here. But to short it you need a rev miss. Increasingly unlikely.

Conclusion: UA exceeded our expectations at its Analyst meeting in Baltimore. We had UA on our Best Ideas list on the short side due to our concern that increasing capital costs to facilitate growth would erode margins in 2H. For reasons discussed below, we don't think we'll see that. We were wrong on the research here, and are not going to sit idle and hope it turns in our favor -- especially with a company where we believe so strongly that it will be a long-term share gainer. There are plenty of other lower-risk places we can look on the short side. UA officially off our list.  We're taking up our EPS estimates by a dime this year, and $0.20 in 2014 to $1.46 and $1.72, respectively, due to lower SG&A spend and slightly higher gross margins. We definitely would not chase the stock here at 40x earnings. Even though some of our best ideas are expensive (and deserve to be), this valuation is stratospheric. But to be short UA here, you need either a revenue miss, which we don't think we'll see, or a pick-up in opex, which now seems increasingly less likely.

 

 

DETAILS

Anyone who cares about the story likely heard the headline already -- that UA endorsed a $4+bn top line forecast in 2016 (revenue CAGR of about 22%).  By and large, that's consistent with what we're seen in recent years -- so no real shocker there.  But it's not really the revenue story that we doubted. After all, this is one of the few 'power brands' in retail that has blue sky revenue growth opportunities.

 

Our concerns have been two-fold. First and foremost, it was the cost of the growth. We believed that UA would have to take up its level of SG&A and Capital Spending to support growth in areas (footwear and international) that have higher barriers to entry, more competitive pressure, and are  inherently lower margin. Nike and Adidas, for example, have 90% of the global soccer/football market locked up, and they won't roll over and play dead in this space (a critical sport needed to reach every country except US).  In other words, we thought that UA would succeed in growing, but would go the way of other brands that came before it like Reebok, which had to take down margins from 11% to a high-single-digit rate in order to achieve its lofty growth goals.

 

Secondly, we were concerned about the revolving door of talent that started with changes in the supply chain organization two years ago through the departure of Footwear SVP Gene McCarthy in January of this year. Rarely have we seen so many executive departures without some kind of adverse consequences.   

 

But at the meeting yesterday, a few things became clear to us:

1)  Finally The Right Team? The team Kevin Plank has in place to take the company to the next level is probably the right one. We were most surprised by what we saw coming out of the footwear team. The irony is that we're finally seeing the beginning of a sustainable business AFTER McCarthy departed, which is ironic because he is one of the most talented executives in the space (at least that's our opinion). But for whatever reason, those skills did not translate well to UA. Don't get us wrong, some of the footwear product on the display wall was downright ugly -- most notably on the basketball wall (think of a dozen unmatched colors poured into a blender and then molded into a shoe). But then again, I (McGough) am hardly the authority on what product is 'cool' vs not. I'm probably a good contra-indicator. Personal preference aside, what I can make an authoritative statement on is that I was impressed by the company's focus on new platforms of product.

 

2) Why do platforms matter? Think way back to Nike versus Reebok. What makes Nike so successful is that it invests R&D dollars to come up with new platforms which become new lines of business. This dates back to Nike Air, but also includes Shox, Free, Lunar and FlyKnit.  In the Case of Reebok, they'd make a lot of noise about producing a new Iverson shoe -- which simply replaced the same shoe they sold at a different price point a year ago, but would rarely add new platforms. That's not a growth mentality. Under Armour is tearing a page out of Nike's playbook. It started with its Spine technology in Footwear, and is also doing it with the new Speed Form, which will be released en masse over the next 12 months. In apparel, we're seeing this with the Alter Ego line (think compression apparel meets superhero unitards). Sounds crazy, I know. But it was the best selling product in all of 1Q13 despite the fact that it only sold in March. We're seeing the same 'platform' development in apparel with things like Storm, InfraRed, ColdBlack, Scent Control, ArmourBra and a new men's underwear line. Products flop all the time, but platforms rarely fail in this business unless the R&D or the Marketing is severely botched.

 

We're doing further analysis on the specific areas of revenue growth potential for UA based on new information given at the analyst meeting (including international, retail and a deeper dive in footwear), and will return with more depth thereafter.


I Snapped

This note was originally published at 8am on May 23, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Hi there. Sorry if I took a snap at you at one time. Fish gotta swim, birds gotta eat.”

-Finding Nemo

 

I’ve watched that movie at least 30 times (I have a 3 and a 5 year old). And while I haven’t seen this market movie before, I have seen how the waters tend to flow toward a burst of entropy, over the dam.

 

I’ll get to the flows of how this macro trade snapped in a minute, but first wanted to give credit to where it’s due. Ben Bernanke was fantastic yesterday – in terms of storytelling, that is. He was so convincing that the market finally realized it’s fiction.

 

Markets (particularly the bond market) losing faith that Bernanke can find Nemo, is not a good thing. Even the Gold market realized that his entire policy depends on fictional forecasts at this point. That’s saying something.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Follow the flow of the last 6 months:

  1. Bernanke teaches the Japanese how to eviscerate their currency for short-term political gain
  2. The Japanese take it up 20,000 feet and roll with 132 TRILLION Yens of easing
  3. Yen gets blasted to 103 and the Weimar Nikkei rips a +75%, 6 month, move
  4. The 57% (average Japanese Household net worth has that much in JGBs and Cash) says, buy Weimar Nikkei!
  5. To buy Weimar Nikkei, Japanese dudes have to sell JGBs
  6. JGBs breakout above the Hedgeye TAIL risk line of 0.81% (on the 10yr)
  7. Implied volatility in JGBs starts to rip (Japanese breakevens are already ripping too)
  8. Japanese Government guys say we got this move in the bond market under control, right?
  9. USA’s Central Planning overlord (Bernanke) says I got it on this end too, right?
  10. US stocks, bonds, and Gold all snap intraday; Yen stops going down; Nikkei closes down -7.3%

I sold all but 7 LONG positions and took our Cash position to 50% in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model at 10:38AM EST right after Bernanke spewed something about “savers wear multiple hats.”

 

It was only the 2nd day since November 29th that I was net short intraday in Real-Time Alerts. Sorry if I was snapping on him on Twitter in real-time. I gotta speak my mind, kids gotta eat.

 

Not only was Bernanke’s thing about savers a slap in the face to any upstanding American who has taught their children Benjamin Franklin style frugality, but it showed a genuine lack of respect for the sacrifice savers (deposits) have made to backstop the most asymmetric, levered, and tax payer funded, trade in US history.

 

Sorry Ben. You lost my trust and respect a long time ago. Now you are losing the market’s. So now what? After consensus hedge funds bought SPY call options at their most aggressive pace since 2007 (on Tuesday, ostensibly having some inside info on what Bernanke was going to say about tapering), is it officially time to freak out?

 

Well, since Rule #1 is don’t lose money and rule #2 is probably turning into don’t freak out when other people are – we should probably respect the all encompassing rules of market mortality as well (I learned this one from Nemo too):

 

Marlin: Now it's my turn. I'm thinking of something dark and mysterious. It's a fish we don't know. If we ask it directions, it could ingest us and spit out our bones. 


Dory: What is it with men and asking for directions? 

 

Marlin: I don't want to play the gender card right now. You want to play a card, let's play the "let's not die" card. 

 

Ok. So that about sums up my call this morning – we’ve had a great run; let’s not die.

 

We’ve already snapped some lines where price momentum chasing machines will end up dead via stop loss this morning. What was immediate-term TRADE support is now resistance for the DAX, Nikkei, and SP500 at:

  1. DAX = 8,389
  2. Nikkei = 15,097
  3. SP500 = 1657

The good news is that bullish TREND supports for all 3 remain firmly intact (for the SP500 that’s 1558). The bad news is that those TREND lines of support are a lot lower than last price.

 

In my last few weeks of rants (notes titled “Sovereign Yield Risk” and “The Waterfall”) I’ve outlined how all of this could potentially play out. My general advice for 6 months has been don’t buy bubbles that are popping (Gold, Commodities, etc.).

 

Bernanke is big on asset bubbles (Housing, Commodities, and now Treasuries). And the Japanese are big on Bernanke. So the last thing you want to be buying this morning are more of the Japanese (JGBs) or Bernanke (Treasuries).

 

If you are hungry for Yield – I guess that’s too bad. We’ve had plenty to eat – and eating the artificial stuff won’t fill your family’s belly forever; your hard earned Savings will.

 

And, as for you Mr. Bernanke… Marlin, Mr. Market, and I are going to start teaching you how to eat that Yield Chasing thing like Dory was taught, “Cause you are about to eat my bubbles.”

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, USD/YEN, UST 10yr Yield, VIX, Russell2000, Weimar Nikkei, and the SP500 are now $1339-1398, $100.97, $83.84-84.69, 100.11-103.39, 1.86-2.03%, 12.94-15.73, 964-988, 14269-15097, and 1620-1657, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

I Snapped - Chart of the Day

 

I Snapped - Virtual Portfolio


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.28%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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