prev

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 6, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 23 points or 0.49% downside to 1601 and 0.94% upside to 1624.                           

                                                                                                    

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.80 from 1.80
  • VIX closed at 17.5 1 day percent change of 7.56%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, May (prior -6%)
  • 7:30am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, June (prior 50.2)
  • 7:45am: ECB seen holding benchmark interest rates at 0.50%
  • 8am: Fed’s Plosser speaks on economy in Boston
  • 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi hold news conference on rate decision
  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, June 1, est. 345k (prior 354k)
  • 8:30am: Cont. Claims, May 25, est 2.974m (prior 2.986m)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 2 (prior -29.7)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11:00am: Fed to buy $3b-$3.75b notes in 2019-2020 sector
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 1Q (prior $1.174t)

GOVERNMENT:

    • 9am: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission holds briefing on China and the Middle East, focusing on energy security, trade, investment flows
    • 10am: Consumer, telecom industry representatives testify before House Judiciary panel on Courts, IP and the Internet on H.R. 1123, a bill which would allow cell phone unlocking
    • 10am: Senate Foreign Relations Cmte meets on labor conditions in Bangladesh
    • 10am: Senate Finance Cmte hears from USTR nominee Michael Froman at confirmation hearing
    • 10:45am: Attorney General Eric Holder testifies at Senate Appropriations panel hearing
    • 3pm: President Obama discusses jobs in speech at Charlotte middle school

WHAT TO WATCH

  • May Retail Sales likely rose on pent-up seasonal demand
  • NYSE Euronext glitch halts trading from Paris to Amsterdam
  • PepsiCo in talks to buy SodaStream for $2b, Calcalist says
  • Cohen is said to vow keeping SAC open as billions pulled
  • Fed grants foreign banks leeway in Dodd-Frank swap pushout rule
  • BOJ said to split on measure to quell bond market volatility
  • P&G reorganizes into 4 industry groups as Lafley takes over
  • AT&T discussing joint bid for Hulu with Chernin: AllThingsD
  • Simon & Schuster CEO says she didn’t discuss Apple e-book talks
  • NSA said to cull millions of Verizon records, Guardian says
  • Newsweek CEO to leave after Diller puts magazine up for sale
  • JPMorgan loses challenge to California cost-recovery program
  • EU considering handing Libor oversight to ESMA from the U.K.
  • IMF says Greece may need faster debt relief, cites own mistakes
  • GM replaces H.J. Heinz (HNZ) in S&P 500 post-close
  • Netflix replaces Perrigo in Nasdaq 100 pre-open

EARNINGS:

    • JM Smucker (SJM) 7am, $1.16
    • Ciena (CIEN) 7am, $(0.01)
    • Conn’s (CONN) 7am, $0.56
    • Ferrellgas (FGP) 7:30am, $0.46
    • UTi Worldwide (UTIW) 8am, $0.03
    • ANN (ANN) 8am, $0.40
    • Canadian Western Bank (CWB CN) 8am, C$0.57 - Preview
    • Cooper Cos. (COO) 4pm, $1.38
    • Quiksilver (ZQK) 4pm, $0.04
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) 4pm, $2.74
    • Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) 4pm, $0.44

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Copper Drops From Two-Week High on Clouded Prospects for Demand
  • Goldman Sees Bull Run Over as Returns Trail Stocks: Commodities
  • WTI Crude Advances for Second Day as U.S. Stockpiles Decline
  • Food Prices Little Changed in May as Dairy Falls and Corn Climbs
  • Coffee Heads for First Second-Quarter Drop Since 2009 on Vietnam
  • Chalco Shutters Aluminum Output for First Time Since 2009
  • Gold Erases Decline in London to Rebound Above $1,400 an Ounce
  • Scientists Unswayed by Monsanto’s Conclusions on Rogue Wheat
  • Harper EU Trade Pact Hinges on Access for Canadian Meat Exports
  • Rebar Falls as Equity Drop Spurs Concern China May Be Slowing
  • Abe’s Power Plan Lifts Renewables at Utilities Expense: Energy
  • Natural-Gas Price Break May Aid Motor-Fuel Use: Chart of the Day
  • Iron Ore Trading in May Said by The Steel Index at Record High
  • Commodities Daybook: Goldman Sees Bull Run Over as Returns Trail
  • Bigger Wheat and Corn Crops Seen Boosting 2013-14 Stocks by AMIS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9A

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


CONFERENCE CALL: What's next for Euorpe?

CONFERENCE CALL: What's next for Euorpe? - whereseuropeDial 06.11.13

 

We will be hosting a conference call Tuesday, June 11th at 10:00am EDT titled "Where Does Europe Go From Here?"

  

 

CALL OBJECTIVE

Highlight the best investment opportunities in Europe and assess the overall economy of the region.  

 

 

KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE

  • Contextualizing the fundamental and structural headwinds in the region
  • The key actions of the ECB and its impact across markets
  • European bifurcation will remain with clear winners and losers
  • Updates from the periphery and other risks investors should be aware of
  • Our investment outlook across asset classes over the intermediate term


CALL DETAILS

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 187759#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (Slides will download one hour prior to the start of the call)

 

If you would like more details about this call please email .

 

 


Trade of the Day: XLF

Takeaway: We bought the Financials ETF (XLF) at 3:39PM at $19.41.

It’s tough for me to buy anything with SPY under 1624, but I can and will. Both the signal and the fundamentals (employment and housing) say buy the Financials ETF here, so I will. It’s oversold within a bullish intermediate-term TREND.

 

Trade of the Day: XLF - XLF


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

Top-7 Tweets to Keith Today

Takeaway: Here are some of today's Twitter highlights. As always, thanks for the follows.

@KeithMcCullough even on days when you are wrong your honesty is refreshing. #timestamp

Noah @262sd 4:09 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough Rough day Boss, but shit happens. Thanks for the words of wisdom and advice, I don't feel like I'm playing this game alone

@JeffersonHumber 4:03 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough At least you're out here and accountable to your clients. #honest

@traderblast 4:04 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough It's one day in a long season. Thanks for letting us "into your head", as u work thru the process

@kenpeyser 4:07 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough You've been wrong for 3 HOURS NOW, when is the public stoning outside your office!!!

@CramersShirt 1:08 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough I've noticed the people that spend their days being critical of other people's calls, generally have fewer than 100 followers.

@GriswoldCapital  1:06 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough @DougKass i gotta be fair, Keith has won this battle, Doug has been bearish this whole 250 pt S&P run up, Keith made $$

@Frankfn11 9:49 AM

 

Top-7 Tweets to Keith Today - twitter


Keith's Top-5 Tweets Today

Takeaway: A quick look at some of Keith's top tweets today.

Thanks for the follows - unlike many, we do have bad days, and today was one of them

@KeithMcCullough 4:04 PM

 

Every decade people think growth can't come back - then growth rips; its behavioral

@KeithMcCullough 3:48 PM

 

Shorting Japanese Government Bonds may be the most obvious waterfall trade of the yr

@KeithMcCullough 3:28 PM

 

Being wrong for half a day is a problem - being wrong for half a yr is a nightmare

@KeithMcCullough 3:27 PM

 

Only Madoff and people with no Timestamps never lose

@KeithMcCullough 1:23 PM

 

Keith's Top-5 Tweets Today - tweet


Bearish on the Russian Bear

Takeaway: If you're looking to get short something in Europe, take a look at Russia.

(Excerpted from Hedgeye's morning conference call)

 

If you're looking to get short something in Europe, take a look at Russia which is currently testing YTD lows. It’s been an unequivocal train wreck, down 15% since January. Give the credit where it’s due: falling oil prices, which are looking weaker by the day. Incidentally, oil looks like the next bull catalyst for US consumption stocks.

 

Yes - we are short oil. 

 

Bearish on the Russian Bear - russia


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

next