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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 6, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 23 points or 0.49% downside to 1601 and 0.94% upside to 1624.                           

                                                                                                    

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.80 from 1.80
  • VIX closed at 17.5 1 day percent change of 7.56%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, May (prior -6%)
  • 7:30am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, June (prior 50.2)
  • 7:45am: ECB seen holding benchmark interest rates at 0.50%
  • 8am: Fed’s Plosser speaks on economy in Boston
  • 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi hold news conference on rate decision
  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, June 1, est. 345k (prior 354k)
  • 8:30am: Cont. Claims, May 25, est 2.974m (prior 2.986m)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 2 (prior -29.7)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11:00am: Fed to buy $3b-$3.75b notes in 2019-2020 sector
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 1Q (prior $1.174t)

GOVERNMENT:

    • 9am: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission holds briefing on China and the Middle East, focusing on energy security, trade, investment flows
    • 10am: Consumer, telecom industry representatives testify before House Judiciary panel on Courts, IP and the Internet on H.R. 1123, a bill which would allow cell phone unlocking
    • 10am: Senate Foreign Relations Cmte meets on labor conditions in Bangladesh
    • 10am: Senate Finance Cmte hears from USTR nominee Michael Froman at confirmation hearing
    • 10:45am: Attorney General Eric Holder testifies at Senate Appropriations panel hearing
    • 3pm: President Obama discusses jobs in speech at Charlotte middle school

WHAT TO WATCH

  • May Retail Sales likely rose on pent-up seasonal demand
  • NYSE Euronext glitch halts trading from Paris to Amsterdam
  • PepsiCo in talks to buy SodaStream for $2b, Calcalist says
  • Cohen is said to vow keeping SAC open as billions pulled
  • Fed grants foreign banks leeway in Dodd-Frank swap pushout rule
  • BOJ said to split on measure to quell bond market volatility
  • P&G reorganizes into 4 industry groups as Lafley takes over
  • AT&T discussing joint bid for Hulu with Chernin: AllThingsD
  • Simon & Schuster CEO says she didn’t discuss Apple e-book talks
  • NSA said to cull millions of Verizon records, Guardian says
  • Newsweek CEO to leave after Diller puts magazine up for sale
  • JPMorgan loses challenge to California cost-recovery program
  • EU considering handing Libor oversight to ESMA from the U.K.
  • IMF says Greece may need faster debt relief, cites own mistakes
  • GM replaces H.J. Heinz (HNZ) in S&P 500 post-close
  • Netflix replaces Perrigo in Nasdaq 100 pre-open

EARNINGS:

    • JM Smucker (SJM) 7am, $1.16
    • Ciena (CIEN) 7am, $(0.01)
    • Conn’s (CONN) 7am, $0.56
    • Ferrellgas (FGP) 7:30am, $0.46
    • UTi Worldwide (UTIW) 8am, $0.03
    • ANN (ANN) 8am, $0.40
    • Canadian Western Bank (CWB CN) 8am, C$0.57 - Preview
    • Cooper Cos. (COO) 4pm, $1.38
    • Quiksilver (ZQK) 4pm, $0.04
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) 4pm, $2.74
    • Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) 4pm, $0.44

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Copper Drops From Two-Week High on Clouded Prospects for Demand
  • Goldman Sees Bull Run Over as Returns Trail Stocks: Commodities
  • WTI Crude Advances for Second Day as U.S. Stockpiles Decline
  • Food Prices Little Changed in May as Dairy Falls and Corn Climbs
  • Coffee Heads for First Second-Quarter Drop Since 2009 on Vietnam
  • Chalco Shutters Aluminum Output for First Time Since 2009
  • Gold Erases Decline in London to Rebound Above $1,400 an Ounce
  • Scientists Unswayed by Monsanto’s Conclusions on Rogue Wheat
  • Harper EU Trade Pact Hinges on Access for Canadian Meat Exports
  • Rebar Falls as Equity Drop Spurs Concern China May Be Slowing
  • Abe’s Power Plan Lifts Renewables at Utilities Expense: Energy
  • Natural-Gas Price Break May Aid Motor-Fuel Use: Chart of the Day
  • Iron Ore Trading in May Said by The Steel Index at Record High
  • Commodities Daybook: Goldman Sees Bull Run Over as Returns Trail
  • Bigger Wheat and Corn Crops Seen Boosting 2013-14 Stocks by AMIS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9A

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


CONFERENCE CALL: What's next for Euorpe?

CONFERENCE CALL: What's next for Euorpe? - whereseuropeDial 06.11.13

 

We will be hosting a conference call Tuesday, June 11th at 10:00am EDT titled "Where Does Europe Go From Here?"

  

 

CALL OBJECTIVE

Highlight the best investment opportunities in Europe and assess the overall economy of the region.  

 

 

KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE

  • Contextualizing the fundamental and structural headwinds in the region
  • The key actions of the ECB and its impact across markets
  • European bifurcation will remain with clear winners and losers
  • Updates from the periphery and other risks investors should be aware of
  • Our investment outlook across asset classes over the intermediate term


CALL DETAILS

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 187759#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (Slides will download one hour prior to the start of the call)

 

If you would like more details about this call please email .

 

 


Trade of the Day: XLF

Takeaway: We bought the Financials ETF (XLF) at 3:39PM at $19.41.

It’s tough for me to buy anything with SPY under 1624, but I can and will. Both the signal and the fundamentals (employment and housing) say buy the Financials ETF here, so I will. It’s oversold within a bullish intermediate-term TREND.

 

Trade of the Day: XLF - XLF


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Top-7 Tweets to Keith Today

Takeaway: Here are some of today's Twitter highlights. As always, thanks for the follows.

@KeithMcCullough even on days when you are wrong your honesty is refreshing. #timestamp

Noah @262sd 4:09 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough Rough day Boss, but shit happens. Thanks for the words of wisdom and advice, I don't feel like I'm playing this game alone

@JeffersonHumber 4:03 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough At least you're out here and accountable to your clients. #honest

@traderblast 4:04 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough It's one day in a long season. Thanks for letting us "into your head", as u work thru the process

@kenpeyser 4:07 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough You've been wrong for 3 HOURS NOW, when is the public stoning outside your office!!!

@CramersShirt 1:08 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough I've noticed the people that spend their days being critical of other people's calls, generally have fewer than 100 followers.

@GriswoldCapital  1:06 PM

 

@KeithMcCullough @DougKass i gotta be fair, Keith has won this battle, Doug has been bearish this whole 250 pt S&P run up, Keith made $$

@Frankfn11 9:49 AM

 

Top-7 Tweets to Keith Today - twitter


Keith's Top-5 Tweets Today

Takeaway: A quick look at some of Keith's top tweets today.

Thanks for the follows - unlike many, we do have bad days, and today was one of them

@KeithMcCullough 4:04 PM

 

Every decade people think growth can't come back - then growth rips; its behavioral

@KeithMcCullough 3:48 PM

 

Shorting Japanese Government Bonds may be the most obvious waterfall trade of the yr

@KeithMcCullough 3:28 PM

 

Being wrong for half a day is a problem - being wrong for half a yr is a nightmare

@KeithMcCullough 3:27 PM

 

Only Madoff and people with no Timestamps never lose

@KeithMcCullough 1:23 PM

 

Keith's Top-5 Tweets Today - tweet


Bearish on the Russian Bear

Takeaway: If you're looking to get short something in Europe, take a look at Russia.

(Excerpted from Hedgeye's morning conference call)

 

If you're looking to get short something in Europe, take a look at Russia which is currently testing YTD lows. It’s been an unequivocal train wreck, down 15% since January. Give the credit where it’s due: falling oil prices, which are looking weaker by the day. Incidentally, oil looks like the next bull catalyst for US consumption stocks.

 

Yes - we are short oil. 

 

Bearish on the Russian Bear - russia


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