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GOOD TO GREAT CANADIAN GAMING

Wow!  We knew management was making progress on the cost side but this exceeded our expectations by a wide margin.  Should the stock go up on this?  Absolutely.  Will it?  Yes, but probably not enough.  Even with a big move up today, the stock will likely still trade around 6-6.5x 2010 EV/EBITDA versus the US regional comp group at 7-7.5x.  An argument can be made that GC's business model is more attractive than the US guys (see our 4/5/09 note for the thesis, "GC:  GOOD CANADIAN GAMING").  GC is definitely a "show me" stock, but Q1 is definitely a start.

 

Revenues were a little below expectations but EBITDA bested our projection by 19% and the Street by 27%.  EBITDA margin increased 370bps YoY to 30.5% despite an 4% revenue decline.  The good news?  Most of these cost cuts appear sustainable.  Numbers are going higher, despite the revenue decline.  Here are the property details.

 

GOOD TO GREAT CANADIAN GAMING - GC Q1 EBITDA TABLE

 

 

For those of you who like details, the following are the conference call and property highlights:

 

RiverRock:

  • Gaming revenues in line with our expectation, normal hold
  • Hospitality & other revenues came in a little light, caused by the construction disruption which led to the temporary relocation of several food & beverage outlets and reduction in room capacity to 195 room from 202
  • Costs came in 1.9MM lower than our estimate, and were down 13% Y-O-Y due to reduced staffing levels and reduced variable costs

 

Boulevard:

  • Gaming revenues were 1% better than our estimate
    • Table drop was better than we expected, up 7% y-o-y, but hold was weak at 18.3% vs our 19.15% estimate, costing GC 300k of revenues
    • Slot handle was weaker than we expected though, down 11% y-o-y, but had slightly better win %
  • F&B and other was 26% better than our estimate
  • Costs were 8% lower than 1Q08 and 1.1MM below our estimate
  • EBITDA was up 11% and margins increased 460bps to 46%

 

Vancouver Island:

  • Gaming revenues came in 1.4% better than our estimate
    • Table drop was very weak, coming in 15% below our estimate, hold was 1% above our estimate. However, table revenues are only 1.3MM at these 2 properties so the hold differential was de minimis
    • Slot handle was a little better than our estimate down 4%, win % was normal
  • Hospitality and Other was materially lower than our estimate down 27% y-o-y (again very small number to begin with)
    • There was some construction disruption
  • Costs were down 20% y-o-y, much better than our estimate
  • EBITDA was up 2% and margins were up 6.2% to 57.6%

 

Nova Scotia:

  • Gaming revenues came in 5% below our estimate
    • Table drop a little better than we expected, hold was normal
    • Slot handle 2% below our expectation, win % was normal
  • Hospitality & other came in 200k above our estimate and 21% better y-o-y
  • Costs were in line with our estimate (remember that cost reductions at this property began in 2Q08)
  • EBITDA was up 133% and margins were 20.2% vs 8.4% last year - this is the last quarter of easy comps

 

Racinos:

  • Table drop increased 17% y-o-y, although hold was 2.2% below normal levels, impacting revenues by 600k
  • Hospitality and other came in 150k better than our expectations
  • EBITDA came in 22% better and margins came in 330bps better
  • In CAD dollars revenues increased 29% and EBITDA increased 44%
  • CAD dollar decline 20% in value vs USD at the end of 1Q09, if spot rates stay constant the decline should be closer to 13% for 2Q

Credibility Crisis

"All credibility, "All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses."  -Friedrich Nietzsche

The credibility of the US Financial System and those who think they are leading it continue to weigh on my mind. This is not a Geithner Saturday Night Live skit or an Obama Washington DC media cocktail party we are watching folks. We are playing with live ammo here.

In a perverse way, the Breaking of The Buck will continue to auger bullishly for our intermediate-term investment in REFLATION. In the long run however, America's long standing stature as the world's currency reserve will be dead.

Bad habits die hard for a reason. If a part of the whole that is trying to exist in a dynamic ecosystem (like, say, the global economy) doesn't have the flexibility or objectivity to evolve, it's likely to go away. Take Darwin's thesis on that - God knows you shouldn't take a hockey player from Thunder Bay, Ontario's word for it.

But what is a man's word worth in the world of finance these days? Does America's handshake with The Client (China) matter anymore? What are the repercussions for the people we have leading this US Financial system down the road to hell in a hand-basket?  Do you really think these people have what Nietzsche referred to as credible "senses"?

These questions are best served to be considered within the framework of a book - heck, maybe I'll take some time off and write one - then CNBC will have to quote me. Maybe I won't! Someone has to wake up every morning calling these cats onto the carpet, or my son Jack is going to be living in a country that's as compromised and conflicted as we allow it to get.

This morning, the Banker of America, Kenny Lewis, is compromising whatever inch of respect that his handshake had left with The Client. Remember, The Client, is what we at Research Edge call China (yes, you little trickster of a strategist who likes to call our coined phrases your own, have at it!). The cost of Kenny's handshake was $7.3 billion in liquidity via his sale of China Construction Bank.

While I am sure that BAC's conflicted US centric Board is completely ignorant of The New Reality, at least we can remind someone over there who is allowed to be objective (when no one is looking ) that selling stock in The Client's face isn't cool.

On this score of compromising America's credibility with the Chinese, what is very interesting this morning is the contrasting headlines between the Top 2 stories being read on Bloomberg:

1.      "Most Stocks, Index Futures, Copper Rise on China's Spending"

2.      "Bank of America Said to Raise $7.3B From China Construction Sale"

Who really "gets" this? President Obama? Do you get it?

By the self-enhancing nature of his perceived to be self deprecating speech this weekend, Obama certainly fancies himself as a smart man. I actually think he is smart, but I also think his economic team wears world class blinders when it comes to understanding the interconnectedness of global markets.  Rather than reading his latest fiction novel, why doesn't someone pass the Oracle of Obama some of the required reading that's being issued real-time and being reflected in marked-to-market prices?

Larry Summers' lap dog, Christina Romer, gets YouTubed daily with her professorial take on macro economic factors. One of her favorite lines in supporting her economic views is "we're in line with blue chip private market forecasters." Unfortunately, I am not kidding you on that either. It's embarrassing and sad all at the same time. Professors teach impractical theories about markets for a reason.

What in God's good name is a "Blue Chip" Wall Street forecast anyway? Are these the forecast of Kenny Lewis' compromised and conflicted "economists" at Investment Banking Inc.? Or are these the "forecasters" from the not so much Government State Enterprise banks, like say Goldman Sachs? Wait - are the Goldman guys private forecasters to Geithner?

So many questions. So little time...

The credibility issue here remains folks. As bullish as I am on a continued generational short squeeze, let me be clear in stating that this remains an immediate to intermediate term view. Dollar down = REFLATION. That's pretty much it, but in the long run... unless we take a good hard long look in the mirror and understand that the only way that our markets will recover from here is if Chinese demand continues to recover... it will not end well.

On weakness, I bought back our long position in China (via the CAF closed end fund) yesterday. The Chinese are reporting that the growth they are seeing in urban fixed investment is now running up +31% on a year-over-year basis. On the heels of fantastic auto sales for April yesterday, the Chinese macro data continues to impress. All the while the lack of American credibility continues to depress. The US Dollar is down again here in early morning trading. US Futures like that. As they should, for now...

Enjoy the REFLATION trade while it lasts. I have the reward outrunning the risk here in the US market for the first time in a week. I have upside reward of +3% to the SP500 line of 938.

Best of luck out there today,

KM


LONG ETFS

CAF - Morgan Stanley China Fund- A close end fund providing exposure to the Shanghai A share market, we use CAF tactically to ride the wave of returning confidence among domestic Chinese investors fed by the stimulus package. To date the Chinese have shown leadership and a proactive response to the global recession, and now their number one priority is to offset contracting external demand with domestic growth.


EWD - iShares Sweden-We bought Sweden on 5/11 with the etf down on the day and as a hedge against our Swiss short position. Sweden is up a healthy 18.7% YTD and has bullish fundamentals. The country issued a large stimulus package to combat its economic downturn and the central bank has effectively used interest rate cuts to manage its economy. Sweden's sovereign debt holds a strong AAA rating despite Swedish banks being primary lenders to the Baltic states. We expect Sweden to benefit from export demand as global economies heat up.

XLK - SPDR Technology - Technology looks positive on a TRADE and TREND basis. Fundamentally, the sector has shown signs of stabilization over the last eight weeks.   As the world demand environment becomes more predictable, M&A should pick up given cash rich balance sheets in this sector (and the game changing ORCL-JAVA deal). The other big potential catalyst is that Technology benefits from various stimulus packages throughout the globe - from China to USA. Technology will benefit from direct and indirect investments.


XLV - SPDR Healthcare-Healthcare looks positive from a TRADE and TREND duration. We've been on the sidelines for the last few months, but bought XLV on a down day on 5/11 to get long the safety trade.

VXX - iPath VIX- The VIX is inversely correlated to the performance of US stock markets. For a TRADE we bought some of the Street's emotion on 5/4, getting long their fear of being squeezed.

TIP - iShares TIPS- The iShares etf, TIP, which is 90% invested in the inflation protected sector of the US Treasury Market currently offers a compelling yield on TTM basis of 5.89%.  We believe that future inflation expectations are currently mispriced and that TIPS are a compelling way to own yield on an inflation protected basis, especially in the context of our re-flation thesis.

GLD - SPDR Gold-We bought more gold on 5/5. The inflation protection is what we're long here looking ahead 6-9 months. In the intermediate term, we like the safety trade too.
 

SHORT ETFS
 
EWJ - iShares Japan -We re-shorted the Japanese equity market via EWJ on 5/6. This is a tactical short; we expect the market there to pull back when reality sinks in over the coming weeks. Japan has experienced major GDP contraction-the government cut its forecast for the fiscal year to decline 3.3%, and we see no catalyst for growth to return this year. We believe the BOJ's program to provide $10 Billion in loans to repair banks' capital ratios and a plan to combat rising yields by buying treasuries are at best a "band aid".
 
EWW - iShares Mexico- We're short Mexico due in part to the media's manic Swine flu fear. The etf was up 7% on 5/4, giving us a great entry point.  The country's dependence on export revenues is decidedly bearish due to volatility of crude prices and when considering that the country's main oil producer, PEMEX, has substantial debt to pay down and its production capacity has declined since 2004. Additionally, the potential geo-political risks associated with the burgeoning power of regional drug lords signals that the country's economy is under serious duress.

DIA  - Diamonds Trust- We shorted the Dow on 5/4 for a TRADE. Everything has a time and price.

IFN -The India Fund-We have had a consistently negative bias on Indian equities since we launched the firm early last year. We believe the growth story of "Chindia" is dead. We contest that the Indian population, grappling with rampant poverty, a class divide, and poor health and education services, will not be able to sustain internal consumption levels sufficient to meet targeted growth level. Other negative trends we've followed include: the reversal of foreign investment, the decrease in equity issuance, and a massive national deficit.
 

LQD  - iShares Corporate Bonds- Corporate bonds have had a huge move off their 2008 lows and we expect with the eventual rising of interest rates in the back half of 2009 that bonds will give some of that move back. Moody's estimates US corporate bond default rates to climb to 15.1% in 2009, up from a previous 2009 estimate of 10.4%.

EWL - iShares Switzerland - We believe the country offers a good opportunity to get in on the short side of Western Europe, and in particular European financials.  Switzerland has nearly run out of room to cut its interest rate and due to the country's reliance on the financial sector is in a favorable trading range. Increasingly Swiss banks are being forced by governments to reveal their customers, thereby reducing the incentive of Switzerland as a tax-free haven.


BORGATA DELTA IS THE ONLY POSITIVE AC TAKEAWAY

April in Atlantic City was cold.  Gaming revenues declined 14% YoY, better than the 19% decline in each of the last two months.  Who cares though?  Business is bad and the 6 month moving average continues to trend downward.  Let's move on.

 

BORGATA DELTA IS THE ONLY POSITIVE AC TAKEAWAY - AC april

 

I wouldn't exactly call Borgata's performance hot, but on a relative basis it was blistering.  Revenues were flat YoY in April, following an 8% decline in March.  The property almost posted its first revenue gain since August 2008.  Both slots and tables were roughly flat, slots up a titch, tables down slightly.  The six month moving average turned up in April marking the first positive discussion point coming out of AC in a long time.  We'll see if that's sustainable, but what is sustainable is the advantage of having the best asset in the market.

 

BORGATA DELTA IS THE ONLY POSITIVE AC TAKEAWAY - Borgata april delta


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%

Calm Waters? SP500 Levels Refreshed...

 

So here I am, buying and covering today, wondering if what I am doing here contains a unique strategy - getting longer?

 

As the proverbial trading waters calm themselves, I'll tell you what isn't a unique thought - being short without a catalyst. Not with this macro setup. No Sir - not here, not yet...

 

Squeezy is hanging out in the shark tank below (see chart's green range of 817-865 SPX) and just waiting for some bait to jump at on the 900 SP500 line. They tried to crack that line of support this morning, but to no avail.  All you're seeing today is another higher low.

 

The 934 line is the January 6th closing high for the YTD. A close above that gets Squeezy chomping on the shorts right up to my new resistance line of 940.

 

Tech is leading gainers today. I am long Tech again, and liking my cost basis.

 

Sharks eat sheep.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Calm Waters? SP500 Levels Refreshed...  - shark


Chinese Demand: Turbocharged

 

Chinese auto sales for April came in at record levels...

 

On Friday the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced April sales data showing that last month saw a new record with 1.15 million vehicles sold, 830 thousand of which were cars and vans. 

 

 Chinese Demand: Turbocharged - cchart

 

The response to government stimulus package for rural car buyers -providing rebates of 10-13% from March through December, has been pronounced as farm families in central regions seize the opportunity to upgrade (often from antiquated 3 wheeled vehicles) to minivans and light trucks.  Among the bigger winners in the upgrade process is the Chang'an/Suzuki JV which has reportedly seen double digit month over month sales expansion in their popular minivan line.

 

The stimulus programs to increase demand in rural regions are not limited to automotive purchases. Major household appliances and electronics are also covered, and data from individual manufacturers in Taiwan and Korea suggest that sales of LCD screens have been rising sharply in recent months. Although the very nature of major purchases in a low per capita GDP environment can lead to consumer spending plateaus, the sheer scale of the consumer base being tapped has pushed those concerns into the background for most observers.

 

All of the data that we have seen from Industry, financials and consumers continue to support the thesis that the stimulus program is working as well or better than hoped for. While we remain as skeptical as the next person about the quality of production data gathered in the mainland and harbor grave concerns about the long term impact on the banking system of loose credit, one thing that we do have confidence in is the Chinese consumer.

 

The rush of new car buyers in the Chinese interior signals confidence on the part of individual Chinese farmers and villagers that now is a good time to buy and if the Shanghai composite provides an attractive entry point in the near term, we might join them.

 

Andrew Barber
Director


Where There’s Smoke… Notes for the Week Ending Friday, May 8, 2009

 

The Big Easy

Ex nihilo, nihil fit.

- Parmenides

 

The ancient Greeks posited that "nothing comes from nothing" - a passable translation of the above (Yes, we know it's Latin, not Greek.  We are conspiracy theorists, not classics scholars).  Parmenides authored the ontological argument against nothingness, saying there can not be a state of existence in which nothing exists.  Aristotle took up the argument for a beginningless cosmos.  He was countered by Maimonides, who identifies a definite moment of origin of the cosmos: the Biblical Creation.  Before this moment, argues Maimonides, there was no "before", as Time itself did not yet exist. This identical statement about Time was made by physicist Steven Hawking, in describing the Big Bang.

 

Thus, whether one is a Judaeo-Christian-Moslem theist, a secular Platonist-Aristotelian, or an atheist scientist, we all agree there can be no moment in Time when Nothing exists.

 

Unless, that is, you are short it.

 

With the SEC now mobilizing its resources and its PR facilities to press for re-introduction of the Uptick Rule, we thought this an apt moment to touch on the topic of short selling.

 

Both securities law and common sense dictate that you can not sell something that does not exist.  Yet every day, under the watchful eye of the regulators, financial firms sell millions of phantom shares of stock, on which they pocket very real money. 

 

The rules governing short sales do not require that all shares sold short actually be physically delivered, but that the seller, prior to entering the order, identify a source where such shares can be borrowed, should they come due for delivery.  Once the trader has recorded a "Locate", the short sale can be entered.

 

Here's how it works:

 

Trader Joe, a hedge fund portfolio manager, gets a tip from a salesman at a major Wall Street firm, indicating that a well-considered company is about to issue a dismal earnings report.  This, despite management having given positively glowing guidance as recently as a month before.

 

With minutes to go before the market open, Trader Joe calls his securities lending department.  There, the manager scrolls down his computer screen looking at the spreadsheet emailed to him at 5:00 that same morning from their prime broker's Stock Loan desk.  The spreadsheet is the prime broker's Easy To Borrow list and has entries for several thousand stocks.

 

Today, Trader Joe's stock in question - we shall call it XYZ Corp, prosaic though it may seem - is showing as Easy To Borrow for up to 500,000 shares.  The prime broker - a major Wall Street firm that operates its own brokerage business, as well as acting as clearing broker for several hundred broker dealers, and as prime broker for over 100 hedge funds - holds over 500,000 shares of XYZ Corp stock, all covered by hypothecation agreements permitting the firm to loan the shares for correspondents and customers to make short sales.  From the hedge fund point of view, half a million shares is much more than Trader Joe will ever do in a single day, so the securities lending desk simply tells Joe "You're good."

 

When, in the opening minutes of trading, Joe sells short 140,000 shares of XYZ, his trading desk marks their orders "Locate at Prime Broker - 500,000 shares."

 

Joe's prime broker also acts as prime broker for over one hundred of the largest hedge funds in the business, all of which hold their assets with the broker.  And the same email that went to Trader Joe's firm also went out to all 112 hedge fund prime brokerage clients of this broker, and to all 848 of their correspondent broker dealers.

 

Joe, it turns out, is one of more than three hundred traders who will short XYZ Corp today, all using the same brokerage firm's Easy To Borrow list.  And, while the broker's list has 500,000 shares available, total short sales off that same list will be far more.  Some of the hedge funds will short the full 500,000, while others will run much smaller orders.  In our example, the average short sale off this Easy to Borrow list will be for 125,000 shares of XYZ.  The resulting number of shares sold short in the first hour of trading will be

 

          314 traders X average 125,000 shares = 39,250,000 shares

 

Note that this applies only to the prime broker or correspondent relationships at this brokerage firm.  Many hedge funds have multiple prime brokers and will ask for additional locate from their other relationships.  It is a multiple multiplier effect.

 

All but a handful of traders will cover their shorts in the early stages of the stock's decline.  Since most of the short sales are covered on the same day, the prime broker's stock loan desk will calculate offsets on all the closed trades, meaning that very few XYZ shares will actually have to be delivered on settlement date, three days hence.

 

Thus hath Wall Street wrought Something out of Nothing.  In our example, 500,000 shares of stock have given birth to over thirty-nine million shares, each of which resulted in a profit for a trading desk, and none of which will ever be delivered.  For, with the exception of the original 500,000 XYZ shares, none of them ever existed.

 

With this type of trading being the Order of the Day on Wall Street, should the SEC be pulling out all the stops to re-introduce the Uptick Rule, and nothing more?

 

On one side stand corporate executives such as Overstock.Com CEO Patrick Byrne, who has been waging an articulate campaign against short selling abuses.  Or former Lehman Chief Dick Fuld, whose personal fortune was inflated by his firm's participation in the Street's short selling party, only to turn on his own customers when he complained that short sellers were driving down the price of Lehman's stock. 

 

On the other side, we have reality, which is that short sellers are among the foremost drivers of market transparency and enablers of liquidity.  They are the better informed and more alert traders.  Inside information aside, the shorts' legitimate market information is more thorough, better researched, and more timely than their counterparts on the long side.  This is partly the effect of the widespread prohibition of shorting by mutual funds, which has created slow-moving behemoths who are vulnerable to swift commando-style attacks from the short side.  It's hard not to describe these activities in military terms.

 

The turnover in volume in our example is fundamental to the functioning of our markets.  We would suggest that, if there were fears the banks might fail the stress test (which is the equivalent of a Big Ten quarterback on track to win the Heisman Trophy being allowed to flunk freshman English...) one area critically affected would be the ability to sustain current levels of short selling.  The thirty-nine million-odd "phantom" shares traded in our example generate considerable wealth.  The lending broker charges for the lending, the traders and brokers are all paid for the transactions, the firms on either side of the trades charge to process, clear and settle the trades - and taxes, as well as substantial political contributions, flow from all these activities. "Stressing-out" the banks that facilitate these trades would eliminate a huge chunk of the equities markets.  Meanwhile, taking the extreme view - hard physical borrow and delivery on every short sale - is not realistic, and would eviscerate both the markets, and the politicians' war chests.

 

But taking the view -as the SEC appears to be doing - that "nothing" needs to be done is blatantly irresponsible.  The highly political nature of the debate - the SEC is being pushed along its current course by such market luminaries as Barney Frank and Hillary Clinton - perpetuates the damage done by the real abuses that continue.

 

The legitimate activity of short selling is based in large part on creating Something out of Nothing, a phenomenon that also prevails in the long side of the market, relying as it does on margin, which multiplies customers' assets, miraculously enabling them to purchase securities they can not afford.  Is this so different?

 

Until the SEC sets aside politics and addresses the Big Easy from top to bottom, we will not truly understand where legitimate market action ends and the scamming begins.

 

 

Brave New World

If what you have done yesterday still looks big to you, you haven't done much today.

- Mikhail Gorbachev

 

No less a light of Capitalism than David Rubenstein, co-founder of the storied Carlyle Group, appeared on Bloomberg Television this week mapping out a New World Order of Capitalism.  He stated - as our CEO, Keith McCullough has been patiently explaining for most of the past year - that America has lost its single most important quality as the leader of world capitalism: its moral credibility.  Rubenstein did not use those words, but the sense was unmistakable: The American Handshake is not worth what it once was.  And because we have so blatantly lied to our global customers, American ingenuity is no longer seen as the touchstone for the world's financial markets.

 

Now that the whole world has grasped this reality - and in the wake of the worldwide market meltdown that America was powerless to prevent - Rubenstein observed that the world will move inexorably towards a multi-central capitalism, in which market centers will spring up in China, the Middle East, Latin America, Europe and beyond.  Wall Street will never be the same again.  In our view of the Brave New World, capitalism will be fully democratized.  From Silicone Valley to Singapore, and from Karachi to Machu Picchu, anyone with a laptop, a Blackberry - even a cell phone - will manage their own personal Fund of Funds.

 

The democratization of information is unstoppable, and those who can not lead will be tossed aside.

 

In this environment the new administration is pressing forward resolutely on all fronts.  We hope the resoluteness will not give way to wantonness. 

 

The latest chapter in the undoing of American credibility centers around the newly-released CIA torture memos.

 

Contrasting views abound, notably from sources who have firsthand knowledge of interrogation methods.  We are not legal scholars and can not judge the Bush Administration's memos; we don't know how many times a person has to undergo waterboarding for it to qualify as torture.  But we note that recent polls indicate a large percentage of the American public - in many polls, over half - are willing to accept outright torture if it serves a specific and identifiable end of preventing disaster.  Torture ends up being a societal construct, like Theft and Murder.  In a stable society the use of force is the sole prerogative of the state, as constrained and defined by the society which either approves or condemns actions by their designated agents.

 

The debate about interrogation methods rests on notions of transparency, and of the affirmation - or denial - that there is one set of Rules on which America rests.  It entails discussion of sticking to the rules, bending the rules, making it up as we go along, or outright breaking of the very rules by which we believe we identify ourselves as Americans.  Current attempts from both sides of this argument have tried calling it different names in an effort to divert open discourse.  In business this is known as fudging the books. 

 

Government officials were certainly advised of certain procedures and programs.  Attempts to recast this as "But I didn't mean that!" undermine America's credibility.  Meanwhile, putting a name like Extraordinary Rendition on a practice merely converts it to off-balance-sheet torture.  Like Enron's SPE's - from which the company drew revenues and profits, but whose debt and leverage were kept off the corporate books until they exploded - the offshoring of our dirty work always comes back to haunt us.  This was true of Iran-Contra, it is true of the Mujahedeen-turned-Taliban in Afghanistan, and it is now true of the dark warrens into which inconvenient individuals - among them citizens of friendly nations - disappeared with hands bound and sacks over their heads.

 

The judgment of history will show that these phenomena were all of a piece.  The ill-conceived notion that, if we ignore bad things long enough, they will go away.  Wall Street, Main Street, Pennsylvania Avenue and Capitol Hill have all been under the sway of Out Of sight, Out Of Mind.  We have created a Bad News Bubble, just as surely as our ignoring the issues created a dot-com bubble and a housing bubble.

 

Now the chickens are coming home to roost, ably shepherded (or whatever it is one does with chickens) by President Obama.  Lost in the non-debate is the fact that governments all over the world, and throughout history, have relied on people - often highly-principled ones - doing extremely naughty things to their enemies in secret.  The broad uncovering of the CIA memos may be President Obama's cleverest gambit: there is much political capital to be gained - and little efficacy lost - in noisily outlawing the interrogation techniques in question.  They are well known by now, and the argument that terrorists will train to resist them is a red herring.  These techniques have been reported in detail by everyone from the New York Times to "60 Minutes", and the terrorists already know more about these techniques than will emerge in six months of Congressional hearings. 

 

At home, this highly visible action enables us to believe we have retained the moral high ground that was always the bailiwick of the True America.  Internationally, it sets the underpinnings of a new global dialogue where America can re-emerge as an honest broker, a role we long enjoyed before squandering it.  Finally, it is better to appear weaker than one is, than to show all one's strength up front.

 

We suspect this is Obama's deep, dark secret.  That, if we make enough noise about what the whole world already knows, we will score a political win.  Meanwhile, we will be able to keep quiet the newest truly frightening stuff we now rely on to keep our country secure.

 

What?  The President playing at politics?!

 

 

Dumbfellas

You're only as good as your last envelope.

          - Silvio, "The Sopranos"

So, let's say we knew this guy Mikey (not his real name).  And let's say Mikey knew the Buongiornos (not a real Family) who used to hang out down on Mulberry Street in New York's Little Italy (not their real address).  Only now, Tony Buongiorno is doing 15 to 22 years (not his real sentence) for Man One in the killing of New York police officer (not his real crime).

So, when we would read about goings-on in the tabloids, Mikey would say "let's go out for a walk", and he would tell us what he had heard about how things really went down.

According to Mikey, the key slip-up that led to the FBI raid on the Ravenite Social Club in December, 1990 - where John Gotti and Sammy "The Bull" Gravano were arrested - was that the mobsters got lazy and forgot Rule Number One: don't talk indoors.  Gotti and his cronies got cocky and fell out of the habit of taking walks.  Instead, they held business conversations wherever they found themselves, be it in a taxicab, in a restaurant, or standing in line at the ballpark.  More than anything else, Mikey said, this is what led to their being caught.

 

If even "Dapper Don" John Gotti lost his bearings, we suppose a mere hedge fund manager can be forgiven the occasional lapse.  Though as reported in the Financial Times (6 May, "SEC investigates first CDS insider trading case") we may be the only ones in a forgiving mood.

 

The SEC has charged Renato Negrin (as far as we know, his real name), a former portfolio manager at Millennium Partners, with trading on the basis of inside information passed to him by Jon-Paul Rorech (ditto on the name) a bond salesman at Deutsche Bank.  The information in question related to repricing of a junk-bond offering for which Deutsche was the banker, and the trade in question was the purchase by Negrin of credit default swaps. The CDS were priced based on the then-anticipated issue price of the forthcoming bonds.  When the actual pricing was revealed, according to the SEC compliant, Millennium took a quick profit of $1.2 million.

The SEC is making much of this story, because it is the first time they have launched a case on CDS.  The SEC does not regulate the CDS market - neither does anyone else - but they do regulate hedge funds.  We wonder what took them so long?

 

Embedded in this cautionary tale is a moral that is definitely not just for compliance officers.  We reprint here the last paragraph of the FT story:

"The SEC complaint repeats fragments of recorded conversations between the two men. After Mr Negrin asked Mr Rorech for some way to 'handicap' the probability that VNU would issue new bonds at the holding company level, Mr Rorech paused and allegedly said: 'You're listening to my silence, right?' Mr Negrin then said: 'Okay, I'll call you back.' The men then had a three-minute, unrecorded conversation on their mobile phones."

As our alleged friend Mikey might say, This needs no f***ing explanation.

 

 

 

An Offer We Can't Refuse

"You don't s**t where you eat.  And you really don't s**t where I eat!"

- Tony Soprano

 

While we're on the topic, a friend of ours reports that his firm has had a TAMMS (Trading and Market Making Surveillance) exam, plus nine additional FINRA examinations and reviews in the last six weeks alone, culminating in a sweep where the examiners handed him a year's worth of the firm's own trades and said "tell us which ones were crooked."  One would think these guys were desperate to raise money, looking to generate fines and settlements By Any Means Necessary.

 

Is FINRA broke?

 

As avowed Conspiracy Theorists, it's comforting to know there are folks out there whose imaginations run even wilder than ours.  Blogging in the website of the Securities Industry Professional Association (thesipa.com) former professional trader Rogan LaBier (author of The Professional Trader's Toolkit, published by Wiley & Sons) speculates on the possibility that the 45% of the FINRA endowment allocated to "alternative investments" were invested with Bernard Madoff.

 

The FINRA Endowment is estimated to be (or to have been?) on the order of $1.5 billion.  The Alternative investments portion of it is invested in unidentified hedge funds.  Bernard Madoff, former Chairman of Nasdaq - in the years before the market oversight function was separated from the marketplace - had his hands on plenty of OPM ("other people's money").  Why not FINRA's own?

 

The neat thing about Conspiracy Theories is that they explain everything. It fits perfectly, if Madoff was in fact managing the NASD's endowment, that they would never audit him.  Still, we recognize it may not be financial panic spurring FINRA's efforts, but desperation to be seen as efficacious.  ("Hah!" we say.  "Hah!")  And we will not even mention some of the more outlandish suspicions raised - that FINRA's own investigation of the auction rate securities markets led it to dump more than $800 million of these very securities from its Endowment portfolio, well in advance of the widespread meltdown in that market, and before they had raised this issue to a level of public awareness, thus making this a case of insider trading by a regulatory agency. Oops - we said we weren't going to mention that.  Sorry, FINRA. 

 

How much credence do we give to all this?  Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't really out to get you.

 

Moshe Silver

Chief Compliance Officer

 


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