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Takeaway: The US labor market is improving significantly and yields are reflecting these improving economic conditions.

We like to look at the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) jobless claims numbers. There’s not a lot of distortion there. Year-over-year NSA claims improved to -8.8% y/y from -1.32% y/y last week.

Meanwhile, rolling NSA claims deteriorated marginally w/w going to -7.78% Y/Y from -8.59% last week as the big, week of 4/19 improvement rolls off.  

Bottom line: The US labor market is improving significantly and 10-Year Treasury yields are reflecting these improving economic conditions. 

Treasury Yields vs. Initial Claims - 10Y vs NSA claims 052313