This note was originally published May 02, 2013 at 09:59 in Gaming
Yes, hold was a little high but Vegas beat our number and we were above the Street. As we pointed out in our positive MGM preview note on 4/18/13, Macau held low in the quarter but should post around $200 million in hold adjusted EBITDA. Since they hit our actual estimate of $180 million we are sticking to our hold adjusted estimate – a definite positive for the stock. City Center also likely had high hold, but high hold seems to be more of the norm for that property.
Stock will be up obviously on the open but we think the momentum could persist through the quarter. Management should be very bullish on the LV turnaround and second quarter trends to date. They didn’t mention the hold impact in Macau in the release but they should be on the call. MGM Macau is a legitimate $200 million per quarter property. We know April finished up 13% for the market and our expectation is that growth will accelerate in May.
We also think there is incentive for MGM to do an equity deal at higher levels to de-lever. Therefore, they probably won’t hold back on this call. We remain concerned over the long-term with US gaming demographic and slot trends but MGM could go a lot higher over the near and intermediate term.