Housing is just one piece of the macroeconomic puzzle in the United States. The labor market is the other key driver of economic improvement and lately, things are looking up. This week's initial jobless claims numbers show improvement on both a seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis.
We consider the 4-week rolling average in non-seasonally adjusted claims to be the more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend and on that metric, the trend improved 2.5% week-over-week as the year-over-year change in 4-week rolling claims went from -6.3% year-over-year from -3.8% year-over-year the week prior. The headline number fell 13,000 to 339,000 week-over-week versus the prior week’s unrevised number while the 4-week rolling average in seasonally adjusted claims dropped 4,500 week-over-week to 358K. Remember: when the numbers fall, that's a positive for the economy because it shows a drop in the number of people who are jobless and filing claims.